El pasado 15 de enero de 2009 se presentó en Madrid el World Energy Outlook 2008, informe anual de la Agencia Internacional de la Energía, ya comentado anteriormente aquí.

Antes de la presentación formal al público, ha habido una rueda de prensa. En ella AEREN - ASPO Spain ha realizado la siguiente pregunta al Sr. Birol:

En el WEO 2008 la producción de campos pendientes de descubrir es de 19 millones de barriles diarios para 2030 (en este rubro) y esto es tres veces la producción máxima del Mar del Norte. Puesto que se tardan entre 5 y 10 años en desarrollar un descubrimiento y ponerlo en producción, los campos tienen que ser descubiertos antes de 2025. La pregunta es “¿Dónde cree la AIE que se encontrarán tres Mar del Norte en los próximos 15 años?”

Sharp reductions in investments and low oil prices could curb future supplies by almost eight million barrels a day within the next five years, according to a study scheduled for release Friday, the latest warning that the world could face a new energy shock when the economy picks up.

The report by Cambridge Energy Research Associates, an oil consulting firm, said that the potential drop in production capacity is a “powerful and long-lasting aftershock following the oil price collapse.”

Mr. Reynolds does not deny the U.S. housing boom, and eventual bust, of 2002 to 2008. He simply argues that it wasn't the housing boom that set off the global meltdown. “What really triggered this recession should be obvious,” he says, “since the same thing happened before every postwar U.S. recession save one (1960).” The real cause, he says, was the spike in the price of crude oil.
The connection between oil price spikes and recessions was first advanced in 1983 by economist James Hamilton of the University of California at San Diego. He showed that almost all U.S. recessions have been preceded by spikes in the price of crude.

Using the Hamilton template, Mr. Reynolds notes that 10 spikes occurred between 1947 and 2007, each followed by recession. On this basis, Mr. Reynolds predicted that, writing in the Financial Times on Jan. 3, 2008, “the U.S. economy is likely to slip into recession because of higher energy costs alone, regardless what the Fed does.”

From this perspective, bank failures in Britain and the United States were as much a consequence of recession as a cause. As Mr. Reynolds puts it, recessions turn good loans into bad. As for crude, he says simply that recessions lessen demand for oil – and end the spikes in oil prices.

Mr. Obama proposes to tax crude oil at progressively higher rates as part of his campaign to switch the United States to renewable energy. But the price that induces significant conservation could well be the price that also induces recession. This will make it harder for the President to keep his promise – a crude promise, indeed – to abolish recessions for all time.

Oil: The rise and fall... and rise
2:07 PM, June 7, 2009


Oil's surge to near $70 a barrel has stoked fresh debate about what's driving the market -- and where prices may be headed if the economy is turning up. Edward Silver, a former Times staff writer who keeps a close eye on the energy market, offers some context on the latest price action, and the global
supply/demand equation:

(...)Demand for crude, however, is considerably less volatile than the price. Even as the rally unfolded this spring, commentators often repeated the view that higher prices made no sense because use of the fuel had collapsed. But "collapsed" doesn’t describe a world market that will shrink a measly 3% this year to 83.2 million barrels a day, according to the International Energy Agency.

(...)Where the crude will come from to satisfy these new wants is a puzzle. Most of the cheap and easy oil has been extracted. For much of this decade, when demand already was pushing the supply envelope, drillers ventured into fields and waters that required high expense and high technology to yield their riches. Now, many of those projects have shut down.

(...)But this much seems clear: The move from $33 to $68 a barrel -- during a time of surplus -- offers just a whiff of what will happen when supply tightens up again. If the recession passes and scarcity sets in, the return of energy angst, here and around the globe, will make for giddy prices in the oil market.

Iniciado por chafamandurrias

es que la tierra es esférica y por tanto finita. Esto es algo que aunque casi todos lo sabemos empieza a notarse: disponibilidad de agua potable, de suelo fértil, producción agrícola, etc, lo que fuerza un saber, un darse por enterado, quieras o no quieras, no un saber para jugar al trivial. Todos son factores limitantes, pero el energético es fundamental para las sociedades despilfarradoras de energía.

Iniciado por AYN RANDiano

La tierra es finita.

Pero quien convierte sus recursos naturales en energía útil y productos es la mente del hombre, y nadie sabe dónde o cuándo saltará la liebre de las próximas fuentes de energía.

Por ejemplo, hace 100 años la energía nuclear no existía siquiera como posibilidad teórica.

El Pesimismo ciego es una actitud tan obtusa como el Optimismo ciego.