Juan Español
Madmaxista
- Desde
- 9 Sep 2006
- Mensajes
- 132
- Reputación
- 414
Aqiu adjunto un análisis del Boletin Europeo Global de Anticipación; Sus prediciones son extraordinariamente precisas y casi siempre se cumplen, su dirección es:
http://www.leap2020.eu/index.php?action=&=
La pena es que una parte de sus contenidos, los más importantes son solo para abonados, pero en la zona libre se encuentran análisis muy precisos.
Confidential letter of European think-tank LEAP / Europe 2020
As anticipated last January in GEAB N°11, the « fog of statistics » is now clearing and US economic trends appear clearly (retail sales at a standstill in January 2007, record high trade deficit in 2006, downward revision of US growth for 2006, Fed's confirmation of economic slowdown, serial defaults among mortgage lending organisations, continued collapse of US housing market,...). Therefore, according to LEAP/E2020, and contingent on the specific evolution of each component of the US economy, the month of April will account for the inflexion point of the impact phase of the global systemic crisis, that is to say the moment when all negative consequences of the crisis pile up exponentially. More precisely, April will be the time when negative trends will converge, transforming many « sectorial crises » into a generalised crisis, a « very great depression », involving all economic, financial, commercial and political players.
In April 2007, nine practical consequences of the unfolding crisis will converge:
1. Acceleration of the pace and size of bankruptcies among US financial organisations: from one per week today to one per day in April
2. Spectacular rise of US home foreclosures: 10 million Americans out on the street
3. Accelerating collapse of housing prices in the US: - 25%
4. Entry into recession of the US economy in April 2007
5. Precipitous rate cut by the US Federal Reserve
6. Growing importance of China-USA trade conflicts
7. China's shift out of US dollars / Yen carry trade reversal
8. Sudden drop of US dollar value against Euro, Yuan and Yen
9. Tumble of Sterling Pound
In this February issue of the GlobalEurope Anticipation Bulletin (on subscription), LEAP/E2020 details the nature and sequence of these developments meant for all concerned players (currency or financial market operators, investors, international traders, political and economic decisions-makers or analysts) to better anticipation events. Strategy is time mastery! In the present issue of GEAB, our teams endeavoured to build a device to overcome this quarter's accelerating developments.
In this public announcement, LEAP/E2020 describes one of these nine direct consequences otherwise detailed in GEAB N°12 (on subscription), i.e.:
Spectacular rise of US home foreclosures: 10 million Americans out on the street
In 2006, US foreclosures increased by 42% , directly affecting an average of 1 US household out of 92. In states such as Colorado, California, Ohio, or Texas, 1 household on 35 or 40 falls victim of foreclosure. In October through December 2006 in Ohio, 3.3% of homes and apartments were filed in foreclosure . The pace of foreclosures accelerates as the number of insolvent US households increases (cf. GEAB N°10 on the issue of insolvency): in 2006, over 1.2 million foreclosures affected 4 to 5 million US citizens (counting between 3 and 4 persons per household).
Level of foreclosures in the US in December 2006
According to LEAP/E2020, the year 2007 will register at least a doubling in the number of foreclosures (3) due to the surge of record high numbers of mortgage loan refinancing on the market (close to 2,000 billion USD). 2 to 3 million homes will probably be filed in foreclosure and about 10 million US citizens thrown out of their homes in the course of this year. All those who doubt whether the US actually entered a “very great depression” should pay a visit to field reality and observe the devastating effect of the housing and financial crisis for millions of Americans (4). Scores of blogs appeared on the web trying to review the on-going housing disaster and the stream of human tragedies (5). Taking into account that a US citizen has three months between initial default on interest repayment and actual foreclosure, LEAP/E2020 estimates that it is indeed in April that the second wave of foreclosures will hit the US market.
GEAB N°12 (on subscription)
_______
Notes:
(1) “Home foreclosures surge 42% in 2006”, CNN Money, 25/01/2007
(2) “Home foreclosures are highest in Ohio”, Beacon Journal, 11/01/2007
(3) “Foreclosures increase 19% in January”, United Business Media, 12/02/2007
(4) "Texas riddled by foreclosures", Austin Business Journal, 26/01/2007
(5) For instance, My Real Estate Money or Foreclosure Pulse.
In the same category:
Red Kite, Global Alpha, Goldman Sachs: First systemic failures in the financial system
GEAB Archives Offer - First semester 2006: GEAB's six first issues for 50 euros
Dollar crisis / Euro above 1.30 USD: A message from Franck Biancheri, Director of research at LEAP/E2020
French prospectivist, Pierre Gonod, analyses LEAP's work of anticipation
Deutsch | English | Français
GEAB N°12 - Contents
- Published on February 16, 2007 -
Global systemic crisis - April 2007: Inflexion point of the phase of impact / US economy enters recession
In this February issue, LEAP/E2020 details the nature and sequence of ongoing developments meant for all concerned players (currency or financial market operators, investors, international traders, political and economic decisions-makers or analysts) to better anticipate events. Strategy is time mastery! In the present issue of GEAB, our teams endeavoured to build a device to overcome this quarter's accelerating developments…
Read announcement
‘9-UP AND 9-DOWN’ – Eighteen key-trends for 2007: Nine issues will soar along the year – Nine issues will vanish by the end of the year
This list can help readers of GEAB to make the most of their time spent on reading the news. Helping you to reduce the time wasted reading articles about issues with minor impact on the course of events, and on the contrary inviting you to take more time on issues that will be at the centre of tomorrow's trends, such is the aim of this list of 18 up and down trends in 2007. Yen carry-trade, opposition between « new » and « old » EU member states, « war on terror », Russian president Vladimir pilinguin, Doha round, European Constitution, hedge funds, etc… Up or Down, what do you think?
http://www.leap2020.eu/index.php?action=&=
La pena es que una parte de sus contenidos, los más importantes son solo para abonados, pero en la zona libre se encuentran análisis muy precisos.
Confidential letter of European think-tank LEAP / Europe 2020
As anticipated last January in GEAB N°11, the « fog of statistics » is now clearing and US economic trends appear clearly (retail sales at a standstill in January 2007, record high trade deficit in 2006, downward revision of US growth for 2006, Fed's confirmation of economic slowdown, serial defaults among mortgage lending organisations, continued collapse of US housing market,...). Therefore, according to LEAP/E2020, and contingent on the specific evolution of each component of the US economy, the month of April will account for the inflexion point of the impact phase of the global systemic crisis, that is to say the moment when all negative consequences of the crisis pile up exponentially. More precisely, April will be the time when negative trends will converge, transforming many « sectorial crises » into a generalised crisis, a « very great depression », involving all economic, financial, commercial and political players.
In April 2007, nine practical consequences of the unfolding crisis will converge:
1. Acceleration of the pace and size of bankruptcies among US financial organisations: from one per week today to one per day in April
2. Spectacular rise of US home foreclosures: 10 million Americans out on the street
3. Accelerating collapse of housing prices in the US: - 25%
4. Entry into recession of the US economy in April 2007
5. Precipitous rate cut by the US Federal Reserve
6. Growing importance of China-USA trade conflicts
7. China's shift out of US dollars / Yen carry trade reversal
8. Sudden drop of US dollar value against Euro, Yuan and Yen
9. Tumble of Sterling Pound
In this February issue of the GlobalEurope Anticipation Bulletin (on subscription), LEAP/E2020 details the nature and sequence of these developments meant for all concerned players (currency or financial market operators, investors, international traders, political and economic decisions-makers or analysts) to better anticipation events. Strategy is time mastery! In the present issue of GEAB, our teams endeavoured to build a device to overcome this quarter's accelerating developments.
In this public announcement, LEAP/E2020 describes one of these nine direct consequences otherwise detailed in GEAB N°12 (on subscription), i.e.:
Spectacular rise of US home foreclosures: 10 million Americans out on the street
In 2006, US foreclosures increased by 42% , directly affecting an average of 1 US household out of 92. In states such as Colorado, California, Ohio, or Texas, 1 household on 35 or 40 falls victim of foreclosure. In October through December 2006 in Ohio, 3.3% of homes and apartments were filed in foreclosure . The pace of foreclosures accelerates as the number of insolvent US households increases (cf. GEAB N°10 on the issue of insolvency): in 2006, over 1.2 million foreclosures affected 4 to 5 million US citizens (counting between 3 and 4 persons per household).
Level of foreclosures in the US in December 2006
According to LEAP/E2020, the year 2007 will register at least a doubling in the number of foreclosures (3) due to the surge of record high numbers of mortgage loan refinancing on the market (close to 2,000 billion USD). 2 to 3 million homes will probably be filed in foreclosure and about 10 million US citizens thrown out of their homes in the course of this year. All those who doubt whether the US actually entered a “very great depression” should pay a visit to field reality and observe the devastating effect of the housing and financial crisis for millions of Americans (4). Scores of blogs appeared on the web trying to review the on-going housing disaster and the stream of human tragedies (5). Taking into account that a US citizen has three months between initial default on interest repayment and actual foreclosure, LEAP/E2020 estimates that it is indeed in April that the second wave of foreclosures will hit the US market.
GEAB N°12 (on subscription)
_______
Notes:
(1) “Home foreclosures surge 42% in 2006”, CNN Money, 25/01/2007
(2) “Home foreclosures are highest in Ohio”, Beacon Journal, 11/01/2007
(3) “Foreclosures increase 19% in January”, United Business Media, 12/02/2007
(4) "Texas riddled by foreclosures", Austin Business Journal, 26/01/2007
(5) For instance, My Real Estate Money or Foreclosure Pulse.
In the same category:
Red Kite, Global Alpha, Goldman Sachs: First systemic failures in the financial system
GEAB Archives Offer - First semester 2006: GEAB's six first issues for 50 euros
Dollar crisis / Euro above 1.30 USD: A message from Franck Biancheri, Director of research at LEAP/E2020
French prospectivist, Pierre Gonod, analyses LEAP's work of anticipation
Deutsch | English | Français
GEAB N°12 - Contents
- Published on February 16, 2007 -
Global systemic crisis - April 2007: Inflexion point of the phase of impact / US economy enters recession
In this February issue, LEAP/E2020 details the nature and sequence of ongoing developments meant for all concerned players (currency or financial market operators, investors, international traders, political and economic decisions-makers or analysts) to better anticipate events. Strategy is time mastery! In the present issue of GEAB, our teams endeavoured to build a device to overcome this quarter's accelerating developments…
Read announcement
‘9-UP AND 9-DOWN’ – Eighteen key-trends for 2007: Nine issues will soar along the year – Nine issues will vanish by the end of the year
This list can help readers of GEAB to make the most of their time spent on reading the news. Helping you to reduce the time wasted reading articles about issues with minor impact on the course of events, and on the contrary inviting you to take more time on issues that will be at the centre of tomorrow's trends, such is the aim of this list of 18 up and down trends in 2007. Yen carry-trade, opposition between « new » and « old » EU member states, « war on terror », Russian president Vladimir pilinguin, Doha round, European Constitution, hedge funds, etc… Up or Down, what do you think?
