Burbuja.info - Foro de economía > > > Cuidado con Rumanía
Respuesta
 
Herramientas Desplegado
  #1  
Antiguo 06-feb-2009, 02:26
MNSV MNSV está desconectado
Agarrao a las kalandrakas
 
Fecha de Ingreso: 13-mayo-2006
Mensajes: 1.794
Gracias: 19
433 Agradecimientos de 72 mensajes
El FMI hace poco ha previsto que entre en recesión este año, lo que es igual a desastre para un país en desarrollo como éste.

Estaba puesto en observación desde noviembre en esperas de sus elecciones y sus resultados.

El deterioro de su economía avanza rápidamente y hay apuestas que necesitará ayuda del FMI o de la UE antes de que se acabe el trimestre.

Su única "industria" importante, la de los emigrantes en países europeos, empieza a enfriarse por la crisis de los países receptores.

El Banco Central griego desaconseja explícitamente las inversiones en el país.

Hay ya una comisión rumana en Bruselas "mendigando" más de 5.000 millones urgentemente.

Un saludo.

Última edición por MNSV; 06-feb-2009 a las 02:32


Responder Citando
  #2  
Antiguo 06-feb-2009, 02:41
Fraga II Fraga II está desconectado
Grandísimo miembro de la élite burbujista
 
Fecha de Ingreso: 10-agosto-2008
Ubicación: Spanish Great Depression
Mensajes: 4.526
Gracias: 7.259
4.221 Agradecimientos de 1.496 mensajes
Erste: Highest deficit in the region should be in Romania


Erste: Highest deficit in the region should be in Romania





Erste expects Romania to register the highest budget deficit in Central and Eastern Europe, of nearly 7% of GDP if it will not change the fiscal policy as most of the approved bills in the election year (2008) will bear their full costs in 2009.






The highest deficit among CEE8 countries should be in Romania, where the absence of changes in fiscal policy entails a fiscal deficit of roughly 7% of GDP, as most of the approved bills in the election year (2008) bear their full costs in 2009. However, it is very likely that markets will force the Romanian government to open the budget and make changes alone, rather than with the IMF, which would result in higher political costs.

Erste analysts believe that Romania’s call for IMF help will be bond-supportive, as the program would offer a credit line that would reduce the net issuance of government bonds and trigger more aggressive monetary easing.

“Although the 2009 budget draft in Romania is very ambitious in terms of cutting public spending, postponing some wage hikes and suspending bonuses in the public sector, we see the cap for the budget deficit at around 5% (2% is the government’s target)”, said Lucian Anghel, chief economist at Banca Comerciala Romana.

The Romanian government has thus far only announced a stimulus package, but it remains to be seen if it this is to be included in the final 2009 budget (after it is approved by Parliament). The central bank’s support in financing the budget deficit in 2009 is very important, while Eurobonds should be seen as a second option and only for smaller amounts.

“At the same time, securing additional funding from an international financial institution to fund the budget deficit could have positive effects on the FX rate, as well as on credibility, and improve investor sentiment towards the Romanian market”, BCR’s chief economist noted.

The highest gross issuance will be in Hungary, Erste analysts forecast, as a big amount of government debt (19% of GDP) matures in 2009. However, given the agreement with the IMF/EU, which should roll over about 5% of maturing debt, the Hungarian government will not need to go on foreign markets to borrow and the net issuance will be negative and done in local currency only.

At the end of the day, there will be less outstanding Hungarian government securities on the market compared to 2008. Thus, the local market should be able to absorb the supply of government securities just by rolling over maturing securities. Besides the negative net issuance, the short-term rates heading south should also be supportive of government securities.

In October last year, Hungary was the recipient of a 20 billion euros standby loan from IMF, in an effort to avoid a payment default during credit crisis.

“As the decline of GDP in 2009 is likely to be below the planned -1% y/y in Hungary, revenues worth around 1% of GDP could be missing from the budget. This suggests that the cap for the fiscal deficit this year is 3.5-3.6% of GDP” stated Orsolya Nyeste, macro-analyst at Erste Bank Hungary.

All in all, capital markets would not tolerate a higher budget deficit than 3% of GDP, nor would the IMF. According to Erste’s base forecast, however, is that the 2.6% of GDP deficit goal will remain untouched, as – by increasing its credibility - it should make it easier for the country to shift from the current non-market-**** financing (IMF loan) to market-**** financing, as soon as possible.

Due to the IMF standby loan, it should not be any financing difficulties in the short run, but as this situation is artificial, there is still no way for Hungary to significantly increase its financing needs, Orsolya Nyeste stated.

Most promoted stimulus packages are either repackaged expenditures or more efficient drawing and co-financing of EU funds.

Some mild tax cuts are being discussed in Slovakia and the Czech Republic, but, in most cases, fiscal deficits should stay below or close to 3% of GDP.

“Based on revised growth forecasts, we now expect Slovakia's fiscal deficit at close to 3% of GDP, even if no new major spending initiatives are carried out (the government intends to find funds by reshuffling expenditure)” explained Michal Mušák, macro analyst at Slovenska Sporitelna.

The government should have no problem raising extra funds, he added, as in late 2008 people brought money from under their pillows to banks ahead of euro adoption. This year, demand at government auctions has been heavy, as banks sought to invest these new deposits.

“In general, we expect that the contraction of strong credit growth in CEE8 and the growing market of pension funds, mainly valid for Poland and Slovakia, will increase the demand for government securities of about 1-2% of GDP” points out Juraj Kotian, co-head of CEE Macro & Fixed Income Research at Erste Group.

The banking system in Slovakia has a liquidity excess of almost 20% of GDP. Thus, banks will be in a hurry to place this excess liquidity in government bonds, rather than put it on central bank deposits at low interest rates.























Lenders face 719 million euro in loan default in 2008





Lenders face 719 million euro in loan default in 2008






Romanians’ loan delinquencies hit 2.865 billion lei (719 million euro) at the end of 2008, up2.6-fold from December 2007, with the share of loan defaults in the total volume of granted loans growing to nearly 50%. Debt collection agencies polled by Wall-Street announce tough times for cash collection proceedings.




If in December 2007, the loan delinquencies accounted for 1.092 billion lei, at the end of last year, Romanians’ loan delinquencies rose to 2.865 billion lei (719 million euro).

However, the outstanding loan rate in total loan volume reached 1.44% at the end of 2008, compared to 0.73% in December 31 2007.

Companies and residents of Bucharest had the biggest defaults, worth 823.09 million lei according to National Bank of Romania, slightly lower than end-November, when it equated 858.33 million lei.

Nevertheless, companies and inhabitants of Bucharest contracted the biggest share of the loans that reached roughly 70.17 billion lei in end-December, with two thirds in foreign currency.

After Bucharest, the biggest loan defaults were registered in Brasov, of 133.87 million lei, followed by Timis with 130.13 million lei. On fourth position is Bihor, with 97.8 million lei loan delinquency, followed by Cluj – 96.5 million lei.

“In the last months of 2008, we’ve noticed a troublesome payment behavior of the legal persons. Many of them no longer have the possibility of paying debts as their activities were severely afflicted by the financial crisis”, Georg Kovacs, managing director of EOS KSI Romania told Wall-Street.

Coface’s debt collection department notes the worrying payment behavior among active Romanian companies.

“If before the crisis, the payment behavior was normal, the debtors still managing to pay their loan-rates after 60 days, now in the midst of economic downturn, the loan delinquency rates can reach up to 150-days late”, said Constantin Coman, Debt Collection & Legal Manager at Coface Romania.

As for 2009, the debt collection agencies expect an increase of outstanding debts, given the financial problems engulfing most of the companies. The delinquency rates will be at least 90-days late in average, as Andreea Crainic, risk manager for Coface Romania notes.

“At the end of 2008, Coface Romania had a debt portfolio to recover of roughly 110 million euro. The portfolio rose sharply after the first half of 2008, and doubled compared to 2007. In debt collection from legal persons segment, the completion rate hovers around 55%, and from natural persons, the rate is 28%”, Coman added.



Responder Citando
  #3  
Antiguo 06-feb-2009, 05:01
Tico Tico esta en línea ahora
ir-
 
Fecha de Ingreso: 01-mayo-2007
Mensajes: 17.712
Gracias: 32.622
21.723 Agradecimientos de 6.117 mensajes
mnsv certified

El mejor tag de este hilo.


Responder Citando
  #4  
Antiguo 06-feb-2009, 08:09
zonapple zonapple está desconectado
Excelentísimo, ilustrísimo, magnífico y grandísimo señor de élite de los gurús burbujistas
 
Fecha de Ingreso: 06-enero-2009
Mensajes: 13.053
Gracias: 13.959
16.319 Agradecimientos de 5.761 mensajes
Joderrr cuando pone mnsv cuidado la cosa pinta fea... Ya nos acercamos al primer país de la UE que cae, ¿será báltico o balcánico? ¿Rumanía o Letonía? Al final no van a ser los PIGS


Responder Citando
  #5  
Antiguo 06-feb-2009, 08:21
urisamir urisamir está desconectado
Ilustrísimo y grandísimo miembro de la selecta élite de los gurús burbujistas
 
Fecha de Ingreso: 08-junio-2007
Ubicación: Tras Barbarouge
Mensajes: 6.058
Gracias: 4.055
4.747 Agradecimientos de 2.046 mensajes
the highest budget deficit in Central and Eastern Europe, of nearly 7% of GDP

Pero no iremos nosotros al 8% directitos este año? Cuidado con España!


Responder Citando
Estos usuarios dan las gracias a urisamir por su mensaje:
  #6  
Antiguo 06-feb-2009, 08:27
Desencantado Desencantado está desconectado
ir-
 
Fecha de Ingreso: 02-abril-2008
Mensajes: 19.160
Gracias: 9.165
38.937 Agradecimientos de 10.454 mensajes
Masacrando
Naciones
Sin
Vacilar


Responder Citando
Estos 7 usuarios dan las gracias a Desencantado por su mensaje:
  #7  
Antiguo 06-feb-2009, 08:31
pptronic pptronic está desconectado
Multinick Premium
 
Fecha de Ingreso: 03-agosto-2008
Mensajes: 235
Gracias: 7
216 Agradecimientos de 68 mensajes
Hola.

Pues así las cosas, veo difícil que los que tenemos aquí regresen.

Saludos.


Responder Citando
  #8  
Antiguo 06-feb-2009, 08:31
Bactiman Bactiman está desconectado
El eterno aspirante a un pottoka
 
Fecha de Ingreso: 04-julio-2007
Mensajes: 3.962
Gracias: 8.035
1.652 Agradecimientos de 822 mensajes
[modo finde ON]
Yo me presto para adoptar a una bella jovencita ( mayor de edad no penséis mal ) rumana para que no pase hambre en su país.
[modo finde OFF]

Bueno, MSNV, el destructor de paises contraataca de nuevo.

Grácias por la información.

Saludos,


Responder Citando
  #9  
Antiguo 06-feb-2009, 09:12
Rocket Rocket está desconectado
Excelentísimo, ilustrísimo, magnífico y grandísimo señor de élite de los gurús burbujistas
 
Fecha de Ingreso: 24-agosto-2007
Mensajes: 10.627
Gracias: 503
5.636 Agradecimientos de 2.128 mensajes
Pues muchas constructoras y promotoras empezaban a levantar su nueva burbuja inmobiliaria alli... una vez agotada y explotada la nuestra. Esto supondra un recorte (aun mas drastico) a su contabilidad.

En fin, no hay mal que por bien no venga. Y los rumanos lo agradeceran en unos pocos anyos.


Responder Citando
Estos 2 usuarios dan las gracias a Rocket por su mensaje:
  #10  
Antiguo 06-feb-2009, 09:12
Polux Polux está desconectado
ir-
 
Fecha de Ingreso: 15-septiembre-2008
Ubicación: En el valhala
Mensajes: 16.990
Gracias: 91.730
37.094 Agradecimientos de 12.909 mensajes
Es un placer leerte de nuevo mnsv, gracias


Responder Citando
Respuesta

Herramientas
Desplegado



La franja horaria es GMT +1. Ahora son las 01:46.