Pero las exportaciones letonas han caído más que la media de la UE. Como ejemplos:

Alemania -28.7%, Francia -22.6%, Italia -23.9% (febrero).

Por lo tanto están perdiendo cuota de mercado, lo que significa que a pesar de que los precios de exportación han caído, no están ganando cuota de mercado.
No han recorrido nada del camino que se supone que tienen que recorrer.

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******* me has hecho descojonarme en la ofi...

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¿Pero no es éste el camino correcto?

Es increible leer a Juancarlos, Eddy, Azkuna y cia

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Cierto. A riesgo de que suene algo chupapollista, son todo un lujo los posts de los citados. Y decían que el foro ya no es lo que era... está sufriendo una 2ª juventud más bien diría yo

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up up upu pu upppppppppp

a mi no me comparen con la gente que tiene unos conocimientos de macroeconomia mil veces superiores a los mios, no lo merezco, soy un mierdas a su lado...

lo que opino lo hago desde mis pocos conocimientos

ahora, tambien reconozco que he aprendido mucho en 2-3 años

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creo que este texto acompaña bien al de arriba

Originalmente Escrito por Eddy
El Ambrosio, demoledor.

¿Que porqué la UE no quiere que Letonia devalúe?

Sabes la respuesta, Neo.


The crucifixion of Latvia

The denouement sequence is worth rehearsing since it offers a crude guide for those with euro pegs in Eastern Europe, and ultimately perhaps for Club Med inside EMU. The explosive power of this broad group dwarfs Argentina.

Contrary to revisionist talk, Argentina was not a basket case. Its imbalances were no worse than those of the Baltics, Balkans, Spain, or Greece, and arguably better.

It ran a trade surplus in 1999 and 2000 until dollar revaluation against Brazil and Europe crushed exports. The economy shrank 5pc in 2001, mild compared to Latvia's 20pc slump this year.

Yet Argentina span out of control very fast in December 2001 when President Fernando de la Rua stopped cash withdrawals from banks. There was a national strike. Co-ordinated mobs stormed supermarkets.

On the 17th, de la Rua ordered a 20pc cut in public spending. (Like cuts just passed by Latvia's parliament). It set off three days of rioting fanned by Peronist agitators. De la Rua declared an emergency. The army refused to act without backing from congress. Police lost control. Some 27 people were killed on the 20th.

Trapped in the Casa Rosada by furious crowds, De la Rua fled in an air force helicopter. After five presidents in two weeks, Argentina ended a half-baked dollar union that had lured its people into a debt trap. Dollar mortgages − 90pc of home loans − were switched into pesos by decree. Foreign creditors received a 70pc haircut.

The country recovered, as countries do once suicidal policies of monetary deflation are halted. In a sense, Argentina did what Britain and America did in the 1930s by coming off gold. Creditors didn't like that either, but Anglo-Saxon democracies at least survived to save capitalism.

Latvia looks well-advanced in this political chain. As our Moscow correspondent reports, three of Latvia's eight Euro-MPs elected last week are pro-Kremlin. The Harvest Party of ex-Communist strongman Alfreds Rubiks came first in local elections, backed by both ethnic Russians and disgusted post-capitalist Latvians.

If the purpose of Baltic euro pegs is in part to keep Putin's Russia at bay by locking the region deeper into the EU Project, the strategic gamble has gone badly wrong. It has created a reservoir of Russian irredentism in both Latvia and Estonia that gives Moscow a pretext to intervene at any time. The Baltics are being offered to Putin on a platter.

Latvia is firing a third of its teachers. The welfare state is being dismantled. Pensions for those in work will be cut 70pc. The salaries of doctors, nurses, and police (nota bene) will be cut 20pc. Unemployment has risen from 6pc to 17pc in a year, and is still rising. Jobless benefits for most will run out in the autumn, reducing support to £40 a month. "It is time to take to the streets," said union leader Valdis Keris.

So why is Riga persisting with peg crucifixion? The central bank has burned a tenth of its reserves in a fortnight. Overnight rates have topped 200pc. Why go on? No doubt devaluation would be a shock for middle class Latvians with euro and Swiss franc mortgages, but they face punishment either way – slowly by debt deflation, fast by devaluation. Swedish banks with $75bn of exposure to the Baltics have already thrown in the towel, accepting that it might be better for all to lance the boil.

The usual IMF strategy in these cases is to devalue by 30pc or so, which allows boom-busters to export their way back to health. Further rescue loans change little without this liberating action. They add debt, and draw out the agony.

We know from leaked documents that the Fund advised Latvia to ditch the peg last year. IMF experts were overruled by Brussels. The reason, of course, was to prevent: 1) a chain of falling dominoes in Eastern Europe; 2) a default shock for West European banks with $1.6 trillion (£970bn) of exposure to the region; 3) leakage from Bulgaria across the EU line into Greece – euroland's Achilles heel.

Latvian society is being sacrificed to buy time for EMU's dys********al system. It is the designated martyr for the EU Project.
When Latvians wake up to what is being done to them, more than a wretched peg will go.

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Veamos otro comentario sobre Letonia:
http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2008...ina-redux.html


Exactamente lo mismo que en España.
Está a punto de demostrarse, me temo, que una economía muy endeudada como la letona o la española no puede tener éxito en este proceso de "devaluación interna". Lo único que se consigue es caer en una espiral destructiva de debt deflation que aniquila la economía del país.
Espero que seamos capaces de tomar nota a tiempo de lo que está ocurriendo en Letonia, por nuestro propio bien.
O eso, o veremos a más de uno, y no digo nombres, escapando en helicóptero, como hizo de la Rúa.

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Pero letonia aun no esta en el euro y nosotros si.


Ellos tienen inmensas deudas en euros que si devaluan frien a sus ciudadanos (como en islandia)

Vamos devaluan y que se jodan los extrangeros porque no pagan... y el pais a la ruina

España puede devaluar? me temo que no... osea que deflacion brutal encubierta por subidas de impuestos.

A ver como queda el ipc en junio tras la subida de los carburantes... como haya deflacion si que me acojono (que me imagino que si)

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