Burbuja.info - Foro de economía > Foros > Burbuja Inmobiliaria > Shipping rates hit zero as trade sinks. Hacia el colapso total...
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  #31 (permalink)  
Antiguo 19-feb-2009, 01:09
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Me atrevo a aventurar la siguiente hipótesis:

El índice se hundió de esa forma tan fuerte porque los stocks se estaban acumulando y había que eliminarlos. Pero una vez que los stocks se han reducido. ¿No sería plausible que llegara una fase de recuperación?

Aunque este índice habla del comercio entre China y Europa, en este hilo está colgada una tabla con la disminución del tránsito de carga en la red feroviaria estadounidense y en el puerto de Singapur. Se dan datos con caidas que rondaban el 30% de media (media chusquera a ojo xD). Creo que sería lógico que el BDI recuperara cotas más acordes con estas disminuciones que se han citado antes (¿30-50%?).

En todo caso espero animar el debate con esta pregunta.
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  #32 (permalink)  
Antiguo 05-mar-2009, 07:43
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3/4/2009 The number of containerships sitting idle worldwide is said to have soared to an historic high of 453 ships, that is 1.35 million TEU or 10.7 per cent of the world's box tonnage, AXS-Alphaliner News reports.

2/5/09 BHP Billiton said build-up of iron ore stockpiles in China that prompted suppliers to defer shipments last year is ending – causing ore shipments to rise, one broker said.

1/21/09 The level of idle containerships has risen to 255 -- 5.5% of the global fleet, a historic high.



Baltic Exchange Dry Index (BDI) & Freight Rates
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Estos 2 usuarios dan las gracias a Samzer por su mensaje:
  #33 (permalink)  
Antiguo 16-mar-2009, 05:30
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http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Global-trade-collapsing-forcing-everyone/story.aspx?guid={5E877CF4-8D66-46A2-A144-3EE1FF6F6C37}

U.S. exports falling at 49% pace as customers fade away

No one is saying that any more.

In fact, the latest evidence shows that global trade flows are plunging at an alarming rate.

The Commerce Department reported that the volume of U.S. imports from abroad fell 4.6% in January while exports declined 8.6%, the most since the monthly trade figures were first collected in 1992. See full story.
Over the past five months since the credit crunch intensified, real exports have plunged at a 49% annual rate, while real imports have fallen at a 30% pace.

The pace of the decline is unprecedented in modern times, economists say. "We doubt even during the Great Depression that trade collapsed with such ferocity," said David Greenlaw, an economist for Morgan Stanley.
The Great Recession, as the IMF calls it, has severed a crucial link in the global economy. U.S. consumer spending has been the main engine of growth for the whole world, but that spending was based largely on phantom gains in asset prices that were inflated by that cheap money from abroad that has now been disrupted.

The profits that foreign producers made from selling to America, in turn, created millions of jobs in places such as China, Southeast Asia and the Persian Gulf. That was then: China reported its exports plunged 25% in February compared with a year earlier.

Those jobs are disappearing, sparking a great reverse migration back to rural China, the Philippines and South Asia. In China, an estimated 20 million workers have lost their jobs.
It's not just the American economy that needs to adjust to the new reality. The rest of the world will have to re-examine just where growth comes from.

Ultimately, the global economy may find a road to more balanced growth. Economies from Germany to China may need to rely less on U.S. consumers and more on their own.

Wherever the road leads, the process will be wrenching and drawn out.
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  #34 (permalink)  
Antiguo 16-mar-2009, 07:58
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Fijate que USA ya tenía deficit comercial, y aún así con la crisis se hunden más sus exportaciones que sus importaciones. Es decir con la crisis USA está dejando de exportar más (8'2%) de lo que está dejando de importar (4.6%), aumentando aún más el deficit comercial. Se van a dar una ostia...
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Antiguo 16-mar-2009, 08:38
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Niveles de 2003 en el Baltic Dry Index ... tampoco es para tirar cohetes, no?
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Antiguo 16-mar-2009, 11:57
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Fijate que USA ya tenía deficit comercial, y aún así con la crisis se hunden más sus exportaciones que sus importaciones. Es decir con la crisis USA está dejando de exportar más (8'2%) de lo que está dejando de importar (4.6%), aumentando aún más el deficit comercial. Se van a dar una ostia...

Si, pero el boom de las exportaciones en el 2008 de USA fue brutal, motivado principalmente por el tipo de cambio. Ahora se les junta una revaluación de la moneda y una caida del consumo internacional así que logicamente sus exportaciones se resienten y mucho. C'est la vie.
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Antiguo 02-abr-2009, 07:37
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Briefing.com: Commodities Caught in Pessimism



Commodities Caught in Pessimism



BRIEFING.COM] Several key commodities closed pit trading with sizable losses. Their weakness was partly owed to a stronger dollar, which was up 0.9% against a basket of major foreign currencies, while a broader sense of pessimism accounted for the remainder of weakness.

Crude oil contracts traded with weakness since the start of pit trading. Oil prices managed to stay above the $50 level for much of the session, but inevitably closed pit trading near session lows at $48.41 per barrel, reflecting a loss of 7.6%.

Natural gas contracts were able to reverse early declines to log a gain, however. Natural gas for May delivery closed the session at $3.75 per contract, up fractionally.

Both gold and silver were unable to put together a sustainable advance as they retreated from early gains to close with a loss. Gold contracts ended pit trading pricing the yellow metal at $915.50 per ounce, down 0.8%. Silver prices were quoted 1.7% lower at $13.03 per ounce upon the session's close.

Meanwhile, the Baltic Dry Index fell for the twelfth consecutive session, dropping 1.9%. All subindices lost ground, but the Panamax Index registered the steepest loss of the group by falling 3.9% this session.




















FT.com / Companies / Shipping - DryShips in crisis as dry bulk rates collapse



DryShips in crisis as dry bulk rates collapse

By Robert Wright, Transport Correspondent

Published: March 30 2009 16:58 | Last updated: March 30 2009 16:58

There is “substantial doubt” about the ability of one of the highest-profile US-listed shipping companies to continue as a going concern, according to a statement it has filed with regulators.

Athens-based DryShips, whose chief executive is George Economou, a major shipowner, had the largest market capitalisation of any US-listed shipping company for a short time in 2007. The value of its shares had reached a peak of more than $5bn on optimism about the prospects for ships carrying coal, iron ore and other commodities.


However, its fortune has changed drastically as it announced on Monday that its auditors had warned in its latest annual report that the company might not survive its heavy debt burden amidst the dry bulk market collapse.

The warning, from Dry Ships’ Greek auditors and the auditors of Ocean Rig, its oil drill ship subsidiary, pointed out that the latest results filed to the US Securities and Exchange Commission had been prepared on the basis that the company was a going concern.

It went on: “The Company’s inability to comply with financial covenants under its current loan agreements as of December 31, 2008, difficulties in meeting its financing needs, its negative working capital position, and other matters... raise substantial doubt about its ability to continue as a going concern.”

If DryShips were to become insolvent, it would be the largest casualty so far of the fall in dry bulk rates, which fell from a peak of an average $233,988 per day for the largest ships in June 2008 to a low of around $2,400 a day in December. The company owns 37 dry bulk ships and has orders for five more. Its Ocean Rig subsidiary, acquired last year, owns two oil-drilling ships and has orders for four more. DryShips plans to spin off Ocean Rig as part of its efforts to survive the current crisis.

DryShips has been in discussion with its banks about its finances since January, after collapsing vessel rates put it in breach of many of its loan agreements which specify a minimum value for the ships against which the loan is secured.

The auditors included the going-concern warning in the SEC filing after the company moved $1.8bn of long-term debt to short-term debt upon failure to convince some lenders to waive the terms of the debt.

However, Mr Economou played down the significance of the auditors’ note. He pointed out that the company had $2.4bn guaranteed revenue for its ships over the next three years, had raised $380m in an equity offering and had reached agreement on waivers with its three biggest lenders.

“We have repositioned DryShips for the long term and remain ahead of the curve,” he said.

DryShips’ shares — which once traded at more than $131 — fell $1.03 to $4.82 on Monday’s news.


















Una "optimista" para compensar las dos anteriores:






Steel Guru : Rays of recovery - Global container shipping sees positive signs


Rays of recovery - Global container shipping sees positive signs



Thursday, 02 Apr 2009

It is reported that after more than 9 months of a sharp downward trend, the global container shipping industry is showing signs of improving in the second quarter. Industry officials said that the first quarter of 2009 is still weak compared to the last quarter of 2008, indicating a further slowdown in activity, but project a positive turnaround in business in the remaining part of the year.

Mr Ken Bloch Soerensen president & CEO of United Arab Shipping Company said that "There are growing signs that profitability will return in the coming months. We see optimism returning, however, business is still down at the moment. We are still watching the market, we are not yet sure of the trend we are likely to see for the rest of the year. But there is some hope that things will get better."

UASC is planning to increase its shipping rates on some routes effective from April 1st 2009. Rates from Far East to Europe will be increased by USD 275 per TEU. Rates from Europe to the Far East will be increased by USD 100 per TEU, while rates from Europe to the Red Sea, the Arabian Gulf and the Indian Subcontinent will be hiked by USD 50 per TEU and USD 75 per to USD 40 TEU. It will also adjust shipping rates to US East Coast base ports of the US by an increase of USD 200 per TEU and USD 250 per 40 foot container.

Maersk Line, the world's largest container shipping line, said recently that from May 1st 2009, rates for dry cargo shipped from all origin points in the US and Canada to destinations in the Mediterranean and North Africa will increased by USD 80 per TEU and USD 120 per 40 foot container, HighCube or 45 foot container.

French carrier CMA CGM will also next month increase rates between North Europe and the US by USD 160 per 20 foot dry container and USD 220 per 40 foot. Similar hikes have been announced by APL containers on its Asia Europe trade route. Freight rates, the main determinant for profitability in the container shipping industry, have come under pressure since the second half of 2008, with rates on some major trade routes falling more than 80%.

In an effort to revive freight rates and improve utilization, UASC said it would lay up part of its fleet throughout this year. It will take out of service three to four ships of up to 3,000 TEUs for a while during 2009 to help narrow the widening gap between demand and supply.

Mr Soerensen said that "Some of our older ships will be idle for a while during 2009 to ease pressure on utilization. By taking out some of the vessels, we will be able to bring back some level of utilization on the remaining fleet, and this can help to push up freight rates."

(Sourced from Emirates Business)



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  #38 (permalink)  
Antiguo 06-abr-2009, 17:07
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Después de haberse recuperado un poco de la monumental ostia del principio de la crisis, parecía que el Baltic Dry Index empezaba a recuperarse. Ahora vuelve a bajar.


Lo crossposteo para seguir el hilo.
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  #39 (permalink)  
Antiguo 06-abr-2009, 17:54
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A mi lo que me parece es que lo extraño en la gráfica son los subidones 2003-2005 y el 2006-2009. El nivel actual es el de 2002-2003, que no está nada mal. Quiero decir que no creo que ese índice vaya a volver a subir mucho más de lo que ha subido en estos primeros meses.
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Antiguo 08-abr-2009, 11:27
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A mi lo que me parece es que lo extraño en la gráfica son los subidones 2003-2005 y el 2006-2009. El nivel actual es el de 2002-2003, que no está nada mal. Quiero decir que no creo que ese índice vaya a volver a subir mucho más de lo que ha subido en estos primeros meses.

Claro, por eso el G-20 Análisis Bursátil | Análisis de la Bolsa | Finanzas.comintente frenar el proteccionismo, pero me temo que es lo que toca. Así que los países exportadores ahora van a recibir su parte de crisis y así seguimos cayendooooooooo!!!!
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