Bloomberg.com: Worldwide

Holiday Sales Drop to Force Bankruptcies, Closings (Update4)

By Heather Burke

Dec. 29 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. retailers face a wave of store closings, bankruptcies and takeovers starting next month as holiday sales are shaping up to be the worst in 40 years.

Retailers may close 73,000 stores in the first half of 2009, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers. Talbots Inc. and Sears Holdings Corp. are among chains shuttering underperforming locations.

More than a dozen retailers, including Circuit City Stores Inc., Linens ‘n Things Inc., Sharper Image Corp. and Steve & Barry’s LLC, have sought bankruptcy protection this year as the credit squeeze and recession drained sales. Investors will start seeing a wide variety of chains seeking bankruptcy protection in February when they file financial reports, said Burt Flickinger.

“You’ll see department stores, specialty stores, discount stores, grocery stores, drugstores, major chains either multi- regionally or nationally go out,” Flickinger, managing director of Strategic Resource Group, a retail-industry consulting firm in New York, said today in a Bloomberg Radio interview. “There are a number that are real causes for concern.”

Sales at stores open at least a year probably dropped as much as 2 percent in November and December, the ICSC said last week, more than the previously projected 1 percent decline. That would be the largest drop since at least 1969, when the New York-based trade group started tracking data. Gap Inc. and Macy’s Inc. are among retailers that will report December results on Jan. 8.

Women’s Clothing, Electronics

Consumers spent at least 20 percent less on women’s clothing, electronics and jewelry during November and December, according to data from SpendingPulse.

Retail Metrics Inc.’s December comparable-store sales index will drop an estimated 1.2 percent, or 5 percent excluding Wal- Mart Stores Inc. Retailers’ fourth-quarter earnings may fall 19 percent on average, the seventh consecutive quarterly decline, according to Ken Perkins, president of Retail Metrics, a Swampscott, Massachusetts-based consulting firm.

Probably 50,000 stores could close without any effect on consumer choice, Gregory Segall, a managing partner at buyout firm Versa Capital Management Inc., said this month during a panel discussion held at Bloomberg LP’s New York offices. Only retailers with healthy balance sheets will survive the recession, according to Matthew Katz, a managing director at consulting firm AlixPartners LLP.

Store Closings

The ICSC predicts, using U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data, that 148,000 stores will shut down in 2008. That would be the largest number since 151,000 closings in 2001, during the last recession, according to ICSC Chief Economist Michael Niemira. The total number of retail establishments will decline by about 3 percent this year, also taking into account locations that were opened, he said. The U.S. had 1.11 million retail locations in 2002.

Another 73,000 locations may shut their doors in the first part of 2009, Niemira said.

The U.S. economy shrank in the third quarter at a 0.5 percent annual pace, the worst since 2001, according to the Commerce Department. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg in the first week of December forecast the world’s largest economy will contract through the first half of 2009.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Retailing Index has shed 34 percent this year, with only two of its 27 companies rising.

The index doesn’t include Wal-Mart, the world’s largest retailer, which fell 24 cents to $55.11 at 4:02 p.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. Wal-Mart shares have gained 18 percent this year.

Discount Advantage

“If you’re going to be in retail right now, the discount space is where you want to be,” Patrick McKeever, a senior equity analyst at MKM Partners LLC, said today in a Bloomberg Television interview.

Discounts of 70 percent or more by Macy’s, AnnTaylor Stores Inc. and other retailers failed to prevent a spending drop of as much as 4 percent during the final two months of the year, according to data from SpendingPulse. Retailers’ pricing models are being challenged by consumers, according to Richard Hastings, consumer strategist at Global Hunter Securities LLC of Newport Beach, California.

“The whole pricing system is becoming an old-fashioned bazaar,” Hastings said today in a telephone interview. “They’re going into the stores and they’re looking at the stuff and they’re saying ‘You know what? I know that that price is way too high,’ and they have figured out that the signage doesn’t mean that much.”

Retail bankruptcies may help the industry in the long run, according to Flickinger.

“We’ll be going from a Dickens-esque worst of times this December to the best of times in future Decembers because we’ll rationalize out all the redundant retailers and retail space in shopping centers,” Flickinger said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Heather Burke in New York at hburke2@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: December 29, 2008 16:17 EST

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para aquí hoy han previsto algo parecido

http://www.burbuja.info/inmobiliaria...e-tiendas.html

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As More Retailers Fail, Malls Could Be Next Victim - Holiday Central - CNBC.com

As More US Retailers Fail, Malls Could Be Next Victim

The dismal holiday shopping season may sink some retailers and could take down some U.S. malls struggling with rising vacancies, softening rents and their own large debt loads.

"This is probably going to go down as the worst season in history as far as retail sales," said Victor Calanog, director of research for real estate research firm Reis. "The difficulty of ascertaining what the effect would be at the property level is because we're already heading toward a train wreck."

At the end of the October, the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) forecast that national chains would announce 6,100 store closings in 2008 and 3,100 in the first half of 2009.

That was before stores such as Circuit City Stores and KB Toys filed for bankruptcy.

But factoring in nonchain stores and others classified as retail by the Census Bureau, ICSC predicted 148,000 retail stores would close in 2008 and 73,000 would do so in the first half of 2009.

During this holiday season until Christmas, retail chains, which are among the best bankable mall tenants, saw apparel sales fall 19.7 percent, according to SpendingPulse, which tracks holiday sales.

Electronics and appliance chains sales dropped 26.7 percent, and luxury goods plummeted 34.5 percent.

A general rule of thumb is that a mall can stay afloat if 30 to 40 percent of its tenants remain in business, Calanog said.

But that percentage will have to be higher to sustain those malls that are burdened with debt, such as General Growth Properties [GGP 1.21 -0.08 (-6.2%) ], the No. 2 U.S. mall owner.
Leverage

"The leverage is what's going to kill them," said Bret Wilkerson, chief executive of Property & Portfolio Research.

That means that some malls will be grappling with less income while facing oppressive debt costs.

"You've got pressure from both sides here," Calanog said.

Reis forecasts that the fourth-quarter mall vacancy rate could top 7 percent, the highest since Reis began tracking regional mall performance in the start of 2000.

It sees fourth-quarter mall rents falling by 0.1 to 0.4 percent.

All retail properties, not just large malls, may see their rents fall by an average of 3.5 percent in 2008 and 5.5 percent in 2009, according to Property & Portfolio Research.

The research firm tracks "economic vacancy," or the amount of retail space that surpasses the amount that sales can support.

Economic vacancy now stands at about 13.5 percent and is expected to peak at 17.3 percent in the third quarter of 2009, "implying that one out of every six square feet needs to just go away," Wilkerson said.

The deteriorating U.S. retail landscape is expected to further divide the Class A malls from the lower-quality Class Bs and Cs, where tenants are likely to close stores first.

Many of the Bs and Cs are susceptible to ailing department store anchor tenants such as Bon-Ton Stores [BONT 1.01 -0.01 (-0.98%) ], Dillard's [DDS 3.46 0.02 (+0.58%) ] and Sears Holdings [SHLD 35.78 -1.26 (-3.4%) ], according to analysts at Green Street Advisors.

Those malls include some operated by Glimcher Realty Trust and CBL & Associates Properties Inc, according to Green Street.

'Disproportionate Effect'

"If it's one of the anchor tenants, typically that has a disproportionate effect on the overall revenue streams of the location given that the anchors are involved in a lot of foot traffic to the center," said Steven Marks, managing director for Fitch Ratings.

Bankruptcies among retailers are likely to rise in the first quarter of 2009, Marks said.

But given the long leases and lengthy process of closing a store and winding down operations, its effect on the mall owners may not kick in until next year and 2010 when landlords are unable to release shuttered spaces.

To head off the impending crunch, mall owners may have to rethink their mix of customers by adding value-oriented stores to luxury malls and help their existing tenants.

"As the recession drags on, there is perhaps a greater likelihood that landlord will offer some concessions if it keeps the tenant out of bankruptcy," BMO Capital Markets analyst Paul Adornato said.

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And Spain worst.

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Presi, esto es muy importante. Muchos retailers operan al límite de sus posibilidades financieras y una caída de ventas tan grande se les puede llevar por delante. El espacio comercial vacío se está multiplicando y los "Malls" tienen problemas. Parece ser que los bankitos regionales son los principales acreedores en la industria inmo comercial, y esto puede disparar una ola de quiebras también.

Todos son subprime en EEUU.

NO muy diferente de lo que pasará en España con los comercios y con los duelos de locales vacios que se van a comer los mocos, y detras de ellos los bancos que acumularan mas y mas inmuebles

Bloomberg.com: Worldwide

U.S. Weekly Retail Sales Fall Most in Almost 6 Years (Update1)

By Heather Burke

Dec. 30 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. retailers’ sales declined last week the most in almost six years as steeper markdowns before and after Christmas failed to salvage what may be the worst holiday shopping season in four decades.

Sales at stores open at least a year fell 1.8 percent in the seven days through Dec. 27, the International Council of Shopping Centers and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said today in a statement. That’s the biggest year-over-year drop since February 2003. Holiday comparable-store sales may decline as much as 2 percent, according to the New York-based trade group.

Consumers spent at least 20 percent less on women’s clothing, electronics and jewelry in November and December, pressuring retailers including Macy’s Inc. and Talbots Inc. to mark down clothes and jewelry by as much as 70 percent after the holiday. That may further squeeze fourth-quarter profit margins.

“Retailers are now aware that December is as bad as they imagined,” Richard Hastings, a consumer strategist at Global Hunter Securities LLC of Newport Beach, California, said yesterday in a telephone interview. “The biggest problem for Q4 earnings is that the retailers are going to take some of the markdown expense themselves.”

‘Double-Digit Declines’

ICSC Chief Economist Michael Niemira predicts a December sales drop of at least 1 percent, with “only a few bright spots,” such as Wal-Mart Stores Inc., “amid double-digit declines amid a broad swath of the industry.” The ICSC studies sales at about 40 chains.

The ICSC’s prediction last week of a same-store sales drop of as much as 2 percent in November and December is more than its previously projected decline of 1 percent. It would be the largest decrease since at least 1970, when the trade group started tracking shifts from the previous year.

The holiday shopping season accounts for as much as 35 percent of annual sales, according to the National Retail Federation industry group.

More people probably visited malls on Dec. 26 than any other day this holiday season, including the day after Thanksgiving, said Adrienne Tennant, a retail analyst at Friedman, Billings, Ramsey & Co. in Arlington, Virginia.

Even with 70 percent discounts, “lackluster” products and consumers’ efforts to stay within their budgets may “make it more challenging to clear goods,” Roxanne Meyer, an analyst at UBS Securities LLC in New York, wrote yesterday in a note.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Retailing Index shed 34 percent this year before today, with only two of its 27 companies rising.

Wal-Mart Gains

The index doesn’t include Wal-Mart Stores Inc., the world’s largest retailer, which fell 24 cents to $55.11 yesterday in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. Wal-Mart shares gained 16 percent this year before today.

“Wal-Mart looks to have had the best holiday season as consumers sought out the best value,” Brian Nagel, a retail analyst at UBS, said yesterday in a Bloomberg Television interview. “Other than that, it was pretty weak across the board.”

Gap Inc. and Macy’s are among retailers that plan to report December results on Jan. 8. Some investors consider comparable- store sales the best measure of results because they exclude the effect of location openings and closings in the past year.

“Although there is another week in the fiscal month, December’s sales are unlikely to get much help from the post- Christmas shopping,” Niemira said today in the statement.

To contact the reporter on this story: Heather Burke in New York at hburke2@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: December 30, 2008 044 EST

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Macy´s cerrará 11 establecimientos por sus malas ventas
16:00 La cadena estadounidense de grandes almacenes Macy´s anunció hoy que va a cerrar once establecimientos repartidos por nueve estados del país después de constatar una caída de las ventas en la temporada navideña. A través de un comunicad, la compañía también detalló hoy que la facturación de las cuatro últimas semanas de 2008 (hasta el 3 de enero de 2009) en las tiendas que llevaban al menos un año abiertas fue un 4,7% inferior a la del mismo periodo del ejercicio anterior.

Invertia.com - mercados,finanzas,economía, fondos y cotizaciones

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La cadena estadounidense Macy's suprimirá 7.000 empleos
20:04

La cadena estadounidense de grandes tiendas Macy's anunció este lunes la supresión de 7.000 puestos, el 4% de sus efectivos, a fin de enfrentar la recesión que afecta al país.

Este ajuste de la fuerza de trabajo involucra a todos los niveles del cuadro de personal, incluso a funcionarios administrativos, se indica en un comunicado.

Esta supresión de empleos forma parte de un conjunto de iniciativas dadas a conocer el lunes por la famosa empresa, célebre por su desfile en las calles de Nueva York en la fiesta de Acción de Gracias, a fin de reducir en el futuro sus costos fijos en un total de 400 millones de dólares anuales, se informó en el comunicado.

La cadena estadounidense Macy's suprimirá 7.000 empleos - 2/02/09 - elEconomista.es

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bien, posiblemente me vaya a NYC en un mes, voy a quemar la tarjeta


Ya lo sé, el mejor sitio para comprar es el vecino NJ

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