El foro se come la indentación del esquema, en el quoteado se ve bien, para leerlo correctamente ir a la página original o copipastear el código. ...continuación The Problem of Procrastination and Self-Control
Why We Can't Make Ourselves Do What We Want To Do
* Ariely conducted an experiment on his class. Students were required to write three papers.
o Ariely asked the first group to commit to dates by which they would turn in each paper. Late papers would be penalized 1% per day. There was no penalty for turning papers in early. The logical response is to commit to turning all three papers in on the last day of class.
o The second group was given no deadlines; all three papers were due in the last day of class.
o The third group was directed to turn their papers in on the 4th, 8th, and 12th weeks.
o The results?
+ Group 3 (imposed deadlines) got the best grades. Group 2 (no deadlines) got the worst grades, and Group 1 (self-selected deadlines) finished in the middle.
+ Allowing students to pre-commit to deadlines improved performance
# Students who spaced out their commitments did well; students who did the logical thing and gave no commitments did badly.
+ "These results suggest that although almost everyone has problems with procrastination, those who recognize and admit their weakness are in a better position to utilize available tools for precommitment and by doing so, help themselves overcome it."
* "We have problems with self-control, related to immediate and delayed gratification. But each of these problems has potential self-control mechanisms. If we can't save from our paycheck, we can take advantage of our employer's automatic deduction option; if we don't have the will to exercise regularly alone, we can make an appointment to exercise in the company of our friends. These are tools that we can commit to in advance, and they may help us be the kind of people we want to be."
* How can these principles be used to improve health care?
o Charge a $100 deposit, refundable when the patient shows up on time rather than procrastinating.
o Repackage procedures so that they are predictable and easily done.
+ Ford had issues getting customers to come in for regular maintenance. Many of the parts needed servicing at different times, and the intervals differed by vehicle.
+ Then Ford noticed that Honda had lumped all service needs into one of three intervales: 6 months/5,000 miles, 1 year/10,000 miles, and 2 years/25,000 miles. It was suboptimal from an engineering standpoint, but it made it easy to tell customers when to come in.
+ Ford imitated Honda, and within 3 years, was achieving the same results
+ Why not make comprehensive physicals simple? Then layer in a financial penalty for missing them.
* What about a self-control credit card that let you decide in advance on certain restrictions on your spending? (Only $60/month on entertainment; no candy between 2 and 5 PM) The High Price of Ownership
Why We Overvalue What We Have
The "endowment effect" means that when we own something, we begin to value it more than other people do.
Ariely and Carmon conducted an experiment on Duke students, who sleep out for weeks to get basketball tickets; even those who sleep out are still subjected to a lottery at the end. Some students get tickets, some don't.
* The students who didn't get tickets told Ariely that they'd be willing to pay up to $170 for tickets.
* The students who did get the tickets told Ariely that they wouldn't accept less than $2,400 for their tickets
* Remember, these students were indistinguishable until some won the lottery and some lost
There are three fundamental quirks of human nature:
* We fall in love with what we already have
* We focus on what we might lose, rather than what we might gain
o When thinking about selling something, you think about all the things you'll miss, rather than the hassles of ownership
* We assume that other people will see the transaction from the same perspective as we do
Peculiarities of ownership:
* The more work you put into something, the more ownership you begin to feel for it (The "IKEA effect")
* We can begin to feel onwership even before we own something (The "eBay effect")
o This is why trials and money-back guarantees work so well! People hate to downgrade.
* These ownership quirks apply to ideas as well as things...which is why we end up with ideologies that no longer seem rational.
To counteract the endowment effect, try to view all transactions as a non-owner. (Editor's note: This explains the efficacy of one of my favorite questions: "Assuming you hadn't done X, would you still do it now?") Keeping Doors Open
Why Options Distract Us from Our Main Objective
In 210 BC, Xiang Yu led an army against the Ch'in Dynasty. While his troops slept, he burned his ships and smashed all the cooking pots. He explained to his troops that they had to either fight their way to victory or die. His troops won 9 consecutive battles. Eliminating options improved the focus of his troops.
We feel compelled to preserve options, even at great expense, even when it doesn't make sense.
Ariely and Shin conducted an experiment on MIT students. They devised a computer game which offered players three doors: Red, Blue, and Green. You started with 100 clicks. You clicked to enter a room. Once in a room, each click netted you between 1-10 cents. You could also switch rooms (at the cost of a click). The rooms were programmed to provide different levels of rewards (there was variation within each room's payoffs, but it was pretty easy to tell which one provided the best payout).
* Players tended to try all three rooms, figure out which one had the highest payout, and then spend all their time there. (These are MIT students we're talking about).
* Then, however, Ariely introduced a new wrinkle: Any door left unvisited for 12 clicks would disappear forever. With each click, the unclicked doors shrank by 1/12th.
o Players jumped from door to door, trying to keep their options open
o They made 15% less money; in fact, by choosing any of the doors and sticking with it, they could have made more money
* Ariely increased the cost of opening a door to 3 cents; no change--players still seemed compelled to keeping their options open.
* Ariely told participants the exact monetary payoff of each door; no change.
* Ariely allowed participants as many practice runs as they wanted before the actual experiment; no change
* Ariely changed the rules so that any door could be "reincarnated" with a single click; no change.
* "Players just couldn't tolerate the idea of the loss, and so they did whatever was necessary to prevent their doors from closing, even though disappearance had no real consequences and could be easily reversed."
"What we need to do is to consciously start closing some of our doors....We ought to shut them because they draw energy and commitment from the doors that should be left open--and because they drive us crazy."
* Even when you get down to two doors, choosing is still difficult. "Choosing between two things that are similarly attractive is one of the most difficult decisions we can make."
o When we focus on the similarities and minor differences between two things, we fail to take into account the consequences of not deciding. Flip a coin and move on.
Editor's note: This particular irrationality is covered well in "The Paradox of Choice" (alas, no outline yet) The Effect of Expectations
Why The Mind Gets What It Expects
Previously held expectations can cloud our point of view.
Ariely, Lee, and Frederick conducted yet another experiment on MIT students. They let students taste two different beers, and then choose to get a free pint of one of the brews. Brew A was Budweiser. Brew B was Budweiser, plus 2 drops of balsamic vinegar per ounce.
* When students were not told about the nature of the beers, they overwhelmingly chose the balsamic beer.
* When students were told about the true nature of the beers, they overwhelmingly chose the Budweiser
* If you tell people up front that something might be distasteful, the odds are good they'll end up agreeing with you--because of their expectations.
Ariely, Ofek, and Bertini then conducted another experiment, this time on Sloan students. They offered students a free cup of coffee and asked them to indicate how much they liked the coffee, and how much they'd be willing to pay for it. They also set out a table of condiments, some usual, some unusual (cloves, nutmeg, cardamom, etc.).
* None of the students used the unusual condiments
* When the condiments served in fancy containers (versus white Styrofoam cups), the students were much more likely to say that they liked the coffee, and were willing to pay more for it. "When the coffee ambience looked upscale, the coffee tasted upscale as well."
When we believe something will be good, it generally will be good, and when we think it will be bad, it will be bad. But does finding out the truth *after* the experience change one's mind?
Ariely conducted the beer experiment again, but with a twist. The students would taste the beer first. Only then they would be told the truth. And after that, they would be asked their opinions.
* If the knowledge merely informs us, whether you found out about the vinegar before or after the tasting should be irrelevant. On the other hand, if the knowledge actually reshapes sensory experiences, being told beforehand would have a radically different effect.
* People who were told afterwards about the vinegar liked the beer just as much as those who weren't aware of the vinegar at all. In other words, knowledge affected the sensory experience.
* And people followed through on their opinion; when participants were given the opportunity to add vinegar to a free beer afterwards, those who learned of the vinegar after their tasting were much more likely to add vinegar to their free beer.
How can you use this knowledge?
* Caterers can use exotic de******ions to improve the perceived taste of their food. Exotic ingredients like chipotle-mango sauce may not improve the food in a blind taste test, but they can enhance the taste by raising expectations.
* Similarly, buy takeout food and then arrange it artistically on fancy china. The same holds true for wineglasses--blind taste tests show that wine glass shape has zero impact on taste, but the knowledge can enhance the experiment.
o This is why Pepsi wins in blind taste tests, but Coke wins when the brands are shown.
+ When a person drinks Coke or Pepsi, the ventromedial prefrontal cortex (VMPFC) was stimulated.
+ When a person knew they were about to get a drink of Coke, the dorsolateral aspect of the prefrontal cortex (DLPFC), an area involved in higher-order brain ********s was also activated.
+ The Coke brand was able enhance activity in the brain's pleasure center, actually changing the experience of drinking Coke.
Stereotypes
* Not only do we react differently based on stereotypes of others, we react differently based on stereotypes about ourselves
o Shin, Pittinsky, and Ambady conducted an experiment on Asian-American women. A first group was asked questions related to their gender, then given a math test. A second group was asked questions related to their race, then given a math test.
+ The second group did better on the math test than the first.
o Bargh, Chen, and Burrows had participants complete a scrambled-sentence task. For some, the task involved words like "aggressive" and "rude." For others, the words were "considerate" and "polite." They then went to another lab to complete a second task. There, they would find the experimenter trying to explain the task to a seemingly uncomprehending participant (actually a confederate).
+ The polite word group waited 9.3 minutes before they interrupted.
+ The rude word group waited only 5.5 minutes before interrupting
o Another experiment primed NYU undergrads with words like "Florida", "bingo," and "ancient." These people walked more slowly when leaving the building than a control group.
Policy implications for conflicts between groups
* "Blind" presentation of the facts (presenting the facts, but not revealing which party took which actions) might help people better recognize the truth.
* We can try using a neutral third party to set down rules and regulations
* Editor's Note: This ties in nicely with one of my favorite persuasive tactics--reframing a decision in different but logically equivalent terms. If a person is being irrational, I give them a what if that recasts them or a group they identify with as the party being harmed...if they have a shred of self-awareness, this usually helps them understand how their prejudices are clouding their judgment. The Power of Price
Why a 50-Cent Aspirin Can Do What A Penny Aspirin Can't
The placebo effect is well-known and real. It's not just a matter of fooling oneself; placebos can actually trigger endorphins and opiates and other biological reactions that actually change body and experience. What is interesting, however, is that price has an impact on efficacy.
Ariely, Waber, Shiv, and Carmon made up a fake painkiller, Veladone-Rx. An attractive woman in a business suit (with a faint Russian accent) told subjects that 92% of patients receiving VR reported significant pain relief in 10 minutes, with relief lasting up to 8 hours.
* When told that the drug cost $2.50 per dose, nearly all of the subjects reported pain relief
* When told that the drug cost $0.10 per dose, only half of the subjects reported pain relief
* The more pain a person experienced, the more pronounced the effect
* A similar study at U Iowa showed that students who paid list price for cold medications reported better medical outcomes than those who bought discount (but clinically identical) drugs.
* A further study on SoBe Adrenalin Rush showed that students at the gym reported less fatigue when told that the drink was more expensive.
o And this wasn't just self-perception. Ariely gave the subjects a 15-question puzzle as well.
+ The control group that didn't drink SoBe got 9/15 correct
+ The "expensive" group got 9/15 correct
+ The "discount" group got 6.5/15 correct
o One more variation: Ariely printed "Drinks such as SoBe have been shown to improve mental ********ing" on the cover of the quiz booklet, and referred to 50 scientific studies showing its efficacy.
+ The "discount" group improved their score by 0.6
+ The "expensive" group improved their score by 3.3...in other words, they did better than the control group!
o The effect declined when subjects were asked to stop and reflect on the relationship between price and quality. They were far less likely to assume that discounted drinks were less effective. The Context of Our Character, Part 1
Why We Are Dishonest, and What We Can Do About It
Ariely conducted an experiment on Harvard students. He gave students a 50-question, multiple-choice quiz. They would take the quiz, then transfer the answers to a Scantron sheet. The students received $0.10 for each correct answer. The results were as follows:
* Proctor does the scoring of the quiz and hands out the reward (control group)
o 32.6/50
* Correct answers to the quiz pre-marked on the Scantron, students give both workbook and Scantron to proctor
o 36.2/50 (cheating = 3.6 questions)
* Correct answers to the quiz pre-marked on the Scantron, students shred their workbook and give Scantron to proctor
o 35.9/50
* Correct answers to the quiz pre-marked on the Scantron, students instructed to destroy both workbook and Scantron. When done, students directed to go to front of room, and take the amount of money they had earned from a jar, with no supervision
o 36.1/50
* Conclusions
o Given the opportunity, many honest people will cheat (similar experiments were conducted at MIT, Princeton, UCLA, and Yale with similar results, so it's not just that Harvard students are crooks)
o Once tempted to cheat, students didn't seem to be influenced by the risk of getting caught; even when we have no chance of getting caught, we still don't become wildly dishonest.
o "We care about honesty and want to be honest. The problem is that our internal honesty monitor is active only when we contemplate big transgressions, like grabbing an entire box of pens. For little transgressions like taking a single pen, we don't even consider how these actions would reflect on our honesty."
* One more variation: Nina, On, and Ariely conducted a similar experiment. But, one group was asked to write down 10 books they had read in high school, and the other group was asked to try to recall and write down the 10 Commandments.
o When cheating was not possible, the average score was 3.1
o When cheating was possible, the book group reported a score of 4.1 (33% cheating)
o When cheating was possible, the 10 Commandments group scored 3.1 (0% cheating)
+ And most of the subjects couldn't even recall all of the commandments! Even those who could only remember 1 or 2 commandments were nearly as honest. "This indicated that it was not the Commandments themselves that encouraged honesty, but the mere contemplation of a moral benchmark of some kind."
o Perhaps we can have people sign secular statements--similar to a professional oath--to remind us of our commitment to honesty. So Ariely had students sign a statement on the answer sheet: "I understand that this study falls under the MIT honor system."
+ Those who signed didn't cheat. Those who didn't see the statement showed 84% cheating.
+ "The effect of signing a statement about an honor code is particularly amazing because MIT doesn't even have an honor code." The Context of Our Character, Part 2
Why Dealing With Cash Makes Us More Honest
Ariely conducted an experiment on MIT's communal refrigerators.
* When he slipped in a 6-pack of Coke, all the Cokes had vanished within 72 hours
* When he left a plate containing 6 $1 bills, no one *ever* took any of the money
* Would you feel bad about taking a pen for you child? How about taking $0.10 from petty cash to pay for a pen for your child? The two are economically identical, but get very different reactions.
* "Cheating is a lot easier when it's a step removed from money."
Ariely returned to the honesty tests, but with a twist: Students told the proctor their score. The proctor gave them tokens. The students would then walk to another experimenter and trade the tokens for cash.
* The control group solved 3.5 questions
* The cash group claimed to have solved 6.2 questions...definite cheating
o Of 2,000 participants, only 4 went for total cheating--claiming to have solved every problem
* The token group claimed to have solved 9.4 problems...brazen dishonesty
o Switching from cash to an equivalent non-monetary currency doubled cheating!
o Of the token group, 24/150 participants cheated all the way.
We have no idea how dishonest we are
* Students predicted that they would be no more likely to cheat with tokens than cash...they were completely wrong.
* People who have their assistants turn in their expense reports (rather than turning them in personally) are much more likely to cheat.
* Businesspeople are more likely to claim dubious expenses when they are traveling across the country than when they are in their home city, or even just returning from the airport.
* Overall, cheating is not limited by risk; it is limited by our ability to rationalize the cheating to ourselves. Beer and Free Lunches
What Is Behavioral Economics, and Where Are the Free Lunches?
Experiment 1: Beer ordering. A group of 4 is offered a choice of 4 different beers.
* When people order out loud, and in sequence, they order more types of beer per table, opting for variety
* Those who made their choices out loud were not as happy with their selections than those who made their choices privately, EXCEPT that the first person to order was just as happy as private choosers (since his situation was logically equivalent)
* Why did this occur? "People are sometimes willing to sacrifice the pleasure they get from an experience in order to project a certain image to others...People, particularly those with a high need for uniqueness, may sacrifice personal utility in order to gain reputational utility."
o In Hong Kong, in a culture that values conformity rather than uniqueness, the similar but opposite effect occurred. People ordered the same order as the people ordering before them. They were still unhappy, but they made their choice to avoid uniquenes, rather than to seek it out.
* Implications: Plan out your order before your waiter approaches, and stick to it. Don't be swayed by what other people choose.
"We are all far less rational in our decisionmaking than standard economic theory assumes. Our irrational behaviors are neither random nor senseless--they are systematic and predictable. So wouldn't economics make a lot more sense if it were based on how people actually behave? That simple idea is the basis of behavioral economics."
* There are "free lunches" available by eliminating predictably irrational behaviors
o Getting employees to pre-commit to using raises to increase 401k contributions raised the savings rate from 3.5% to 13.5% over a few years.
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