Un analista del Royal Bank, avisando a los clientes, para que se salgan de los mercados antes de finales de Septiembre..




Three-month slide could hit record lows, Royal Bank of Scotland chief credit strategist Bob Janjuah predicts.

Britain's Uber-bear is growling again. After predicting a torrid "relief rally" over the early summer, Bob Janjuah at Royal Bank of Scotland is advising clients to take profits in global equity and commodity markets and prepare for another storm as winter nears.

"We are now in the middle of a parabolic spike up," he said in his latest


"I expect this risk rally to continue into – and maybe through – a large part of August. What happens after that? The next ugly leg of the bear market begins as we get into the July through September 'tipping zone', driven by the failure of the data to validate the V (shaped recovery) that is now fully priced into markets."

The key indicators to watch are business spending on equipment (Capex), incomes, jobs, and profits. Only a "surge higher" in these gauges can justify current asset prices. Results that are merely "less bad" will not suffice.

He expects global stock markets to test their March lows, and probably worse. The slide could last three months. "A move to new lows is highly likely," he said.

Mr Janjuah, RBS's chief credit strategist, has a loyal following in the City. He was one of the very few analysts to speak out early about the dangerous excesses of the credit bubble. He then made waves in the summer of 2008 by issuing a global crash alert, giving warning that a "very nasty period is soon to be upon us" as – indeed it was. Lehman Brothers and AIG imploded weeks later.

This time he expects the S&P 500 index of US equities to reach the "mid 500s", almost halving from current levels near 1000. Such a fall would take London's FTSE 100 to around 2,500. The iTraxx Crossover index measuring spreads on low-grade European debt will double to 1250.

Mr Janjuah advises investors to seek safety in 10-year German bonds in late August or early September.

While media headlines have played up the short-term bounce of corporate earnings, Mr Janjuah said this is a statistical illusion. Profits were in reality down 20pc in the second quarter from the year before. They cannot rise much as the West slowly purges debt and adjusts to record over-capacity. "Investors are again being sucked back into the game where 'markets make opinions', where 'excess liquidity' is the driving investment rationale.

"The last two Augusts proved to be pivotal turning points: August 2007 being the proverbial 'head-fake' when everyone wanted to believe that policy-makers had seen off the credit disaster at the pass, and August 2008 being the calm before the utter collapse of Sept/Oct/Nov… 3rd time lucky anyone?"

The elephant in the room is the spiralling public debt as private losses are shifted on to the taxpayer, especially in Britain and America. "Ask yourself this: who bails out Government after they have bailed out everyone?"

Mr Janjuah said governments might put off the day of reckoning into the middle of next year if they resort to another shot of stimulus, but that would store yet further problems. "If what I fear plays out then I will have to concede that the lunatics who ran the asylum pretty much into the ground last year are back in control."

Over at Morgan Stanley, equity guru Teun Draaisma thinks we are through the worst. "We were on course for a Great Depression in February, but Armageddon was avoided. Governments did not repeat the policy errors of the 1930s."

"We have seen the lows of this crisis. This is a genuine rebound rally, and it has been short by historical standards so far," he said.

Mr Draaisma, who called the top of the bull market almost to the day in mid-2007, has crunched the worldwide data on 19 major stock market crashes over the last century. They show that the typical rebound rally (as opposed to bear trap rallies, when markets later plunge to new lows) lasts 17 months and stocks rise 71pc. The 1993 rally in the US was 170pc over 13 months. Finland's rally in 1994 was 295pc. Hong Kong rallied 159pc in 2000. This rebound is only five months old. The key indexes have risen 49pc in the US and 42pc in Europe. Mr Draaisma advises clients to stay in the stocks for now, but stick to telecom companies, utilities, and oil.

Yet he too expects a nasty correction once this rally falters. The usual trigger at this stage of the cycle is when central bankers start to make hawkish noises, typically a couple of months before the first turn of the screw (normally a rate rise, but in this case an end to "quantitative easing". "As long as policy-makers are talking about how fragile the recovery is, equities are unlikely to go down much."

This moment can be hard to judge. There has already been rumbling from some governors at the US Federal Reserve and from the European Central Bank's Jean-Claude Trichet. Markets are pricing in rates rises by early next year.

The pattern after major financial bust-ups is that the rebound rally gives way to another fall of 25pc or so, lasting a year, followed by five years of hard slog as stocks bounce up and down in a trading range, going nowhere. Mr Draaisma suggests taking a close look at the chart of Japan's Nikkei index from 1991 to 1999. Gains were zero.

We are in uncharted waters, however. Monetary and fiscal stimulus has been unprecedented. Russell Napier at Hong Kong brokers CLSA says a powerful bull market is already taking shape as the American giant reawakens. Perma-bears will be left behind. He said: "It is dangerous to be in cash."

When the finest minds in the business disagree so starkly, the rest of us can only shake our heads in confusion.



RBS uber-bear issues fresh alert on global stock markets - Telegraph

La siguiente caida parece una profecia que se realiza a si misma.

Todo dios sabe ya que la bolsa se va a ir al guano en 2 meses! todo el mundo intentara vender antes!!

Pero los grandes ya han empapelado durante toda esta subida... por eso no sube mas.. al ver que no sube muchos se pondran nerviosos y ahi si veremos ventas a saco y de panico... y teniendo en cuenta lo del año pasado.

Ahora si veremos sangre

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A ver si es verdad, que llevamos mucho esperando por el castañazo.
Aparte de ver la huída de los últimos fichajes trolleros, el hilo del Ibex se pone muy interesante

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a mi la bolsa me parece que está en niveles dramáticos ya, niveles de hace 11 años sin descontar inflación, no se a que viene tanta euforia, muy poca gente gana pasta en bolsa desde hace mas de una década

Brown devela plan para evitar generación perdida en G. Bretaña | Reuters

Brown devela plan para evitar "generación perdida" en G. Bretaña
miércoles 2 de septiembre de 2009 13:49 GYT

Por Peter Griffiths

LONDRES (Reuters) - El primer ministro británico, Gordon Brown, presentó el miércoles un plan para ayudar a 85.000 jóvenes más a encontrar empleo o a capacitarse para evitar así la creación de una "generación perdida".

Con el país atrapado en su peor recesión por décadas y el desempleo en máximos de 10 años, Brown está bajo presión para crear nuevos empleos y cuidar los puestos amenazados por la turbulencia económica global.

Su Partido Laborista va a la zaga de los conservadores en los sondeos de opinión a menos de un año de la próxima elección, donde el desempleo y la recuperación económica serán los temas claves.

"Nadie que vivió durante las recesiones de los ochentas y los noventas puede olvidar jamás el modo en que decenas de miles de jóvenes fueron dejados excluidos como una generación perdida para el trabajo", dijo Brown en un comunicado. "No cometeremos ese error", aseguró.

En una cumbre sobre el desempleo en Birmingham, en la región central de Inglaterra, el Gobierno dijo que le daría a 85.000 jóvenes oportunidades de capacitación, de pasantías o un empleo en el comercio minorista y en el turismo.

Su más reciente medida a favor del empleo, titulada "Apoyando a los Británicos Jóvenes, es respaldada por más de 150 empresas, entre ellas Microsoft, Centrica y Virgin Media.

La secretaria de Empleo y Pensiones, Yvette Cooper, dijo que la ayuda extra para los jóvenes garantizaría que no estuviesen sin empleo por más de un año.

"Por cada 100.00 jóvenes que se saca de los subsidios de desempleo, se ahorran cerca de 700 millones de libras (1.130 millones de dólares). Eso vale la pena para nuestra economía", dijo en entrevista con Sky News.

La tasa de desempleo llegó a los 2,4 millones de personas en los tres meses a junio, su cifra más alta desde 1996, y muchos analistas creen que podría tocar los 3 millones este año.

La portavoz de la oposición conservadora para empleo y pensiones, Theresa May, dijo la semana pasada que tres millones de personas no han tenido empleo desde antes de 1996, un año antes de que los laboristas llegaran al poder.

"Esta es gente que ha sido escondida por los laboristas durante los últimos diez años", dijo en un discurso.

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NM Rothschild pitches motorway privatisation plan - Times Online

NM Rothschild pitches motorway privatisation plan
Robert Watts and Dominic O’Connell


Hard shoulder being used as a slow lane on the motorway

(David Jones)

The Department for Transport has also asked the Highways Agency to consider hard-shoulder running without any refuges

A radical plan to raise £100 billion by privatising the motorway network has been presented to the three main political parties by NM Rothschild, the influential investment bank.

Rothschild, an architect of several privatisations, made its pitch in the weeks running up to the summer recess on July 21, Whitehall sources said. Bankers told leading politicians that the sale of the roads overseen by the Highways Agency — all motorways and most big trunk roads — could help revive battered public finances.

Toll-road companies and infrastructure funds would compete to operate and maintain stretches of the network.

In one version of the scheme, the government would pay for upkeep through a system of “shadow” tolls. A more radical, and less politically palatable, option would be for companies to charge motorists directly through toll booths or electronic card readers. The RAC Foundation, a motorists’ group, advocated privatisation in a report last week.
Related Links

* Hedge funds shut out as banks win IMO

* Rothschild's revels in conservative approach

The Rothschild plan has already won the support of Vince Cable, the Liberal Democrats’ deputy leader and Treasury spokesman.

“This is an attractive, positive idea which could release considerable resources to the public finances and may have real environmental merits,” Cable said. “The scale of it is vast — it makes rail privatisation look like small beer.”

Theresa Villiers, the shadow transport secretary, said the Conservatives had “no plans” to back Rothschild’s proposals: “Rothschilds, like many other banks and consultancies, have approached me and my team on a range of ideas for our transport network, including their ideas for our road infrastructure, but we are not working on any proposals for privatisation of the strategic road network and have no plans to do so.”

Motorway privatisation was considered by John Major’s Conservative administration, which sold British Rail, but was rejected.

A spokesman at the Department for Transport said: “It is not unusual for organisations to suggest ideas to government departments but ultimately all policy is decided by ministers and there are no plans to sell off a stake in the Highways Agency.” Rothschild declined to comment.

The bank was behind many of the key privatisations of the 1980s and 1990s, including British Steel, British Gas and British Coal. It has close links to the Conservatives, having employed several senior Party figures including Lord Lamont, John Redwood and Lord Wakeham. Oliver Letwin, the former shadow chancellor, works there part-time.

Politicians of all Parties are seeking ways to decrease the need for large tax rises or heavy cuts in public services. The bank bailouts and a recent collapse in tax revenues has seen public sector debt rise to more than £800 billion, 56.8% of GDP — up from 35.5% just two years ago.

Road tolls are unpopular, however. When Labour mooted road pricing two years ago, more than 230,000 signed a petition on the Downing Street decrying the plan .

HSBC Says Switzerland Luring More Rich Foreigners as Taxes Rise - Bloomberg.com

HSBC Says Switzerland Luring More Rich Foreigners as Taxes Rise

By Warren Giles

Sept. 3 (Bloomberg) -- HSBC Holdings Plc’s Swiss private bank says more rich foreigners are inquiring about moving to Switzerland, spurred by rising taxes at home and concerns about the erosion of banking secrecy for non-residents.

Switzerland’s decision to increase cooperation with the U.S. and neighbors such as France and Germany on tax evasion hasn’t dulled the Alpine nation’s allure for those who are able to take up residence, said Alexandre Zeller, chief executive officer of HSBC’s Swiss bank.

“We’re not talking about thousands of people because we’re talking about people with a certain wealth, but it’s significant,” Zeller said in an interview in Zurich. “They come above all from countries which have substantially increased taxes. There’s a direct correlation between taxes and the desire of a wealthy person to want to establish themselves elsewhere.”

Switzerland is home to expatriate millionaires including seven-time Formula 1 racing champion Michael Schumacher, Ikea founder Ingvar Kamprad and singer Tina Turner. Wealthy residents who don’t have Swiss income can negotiate individual tax deals with regional authorities in Switzerland.

Zeller said any Swiss banking client with a tax-compliance issue in his home country has three choices: do nothing, make a voluntary disclosure, or, if rich enough, move to Switzerland.

Beginning in April, the U.K. plans to levy a 50 percent income tax on people who make more than 150,000 pounds ($244,000) a year. Julius Baer Holding AG Chairman Raymond Baer said in an interview earlier this year that his bank remains attractive to Germans faced with unpredictable taxes. Most Americans remain liable for U.S. taxes even if they live abroad.

Inflow From U.K.

“For very large clients in a difficult position one solution is to move yourself,” Zeller said yesterday in a speech at a private banking conference in Zurich. “That’s why we have such a large inflow of clients into Switzerland from the U.K. and the real estate market is booming.”

HSBC Holdings, Europe’s biggest lender and the parent of Zeller’s bank, is based in London.

Switzerland agreed Aug. 19 to give U.S. tax authorities information on about 4,450 UBS AG accounts to settle a lawsuit against the biggest Swiss bank.

The country is in the process of signing a series of double-taxation treaties as part of an effort to avoid being placed on the Organization for Cooperation and Development’s blacklist of uncooperative tax havens.

“Secrecy will remain but won’t offer tax protection in the medium term,” Boris Collardi, chief executive officer of Bank Julius Baer, said yesterday at a conference in Zurich. “We need to get proactive about it and realize it.”

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Si eso es una generación perdida , la nuestra debe ser el eslabón perdido, con 4,5 millones de parados con menos población que ellos, mientras que el gobierno de UK se toma en serio el problema aqui se pierde el tiempo a pesar de tener una tasa de paro que triplica a la de UK

Debt inquiries to Citizens Advice hit record 9,000 a day - Telegraph


Debt inquiries to Citizens Advice hit record 9,000 a day
Record numbers of people are seeking help from Citizens Advice, with the charity dealing with more than 17,000 debt and benefit cases every day.


Published: 7:00AM BST 04 Sep 2009
A mobile Citizens Advice Bureau in 1939
Citizens Advice celebrates 70 years Photo: CAB

The total number of cases handled in the three months to the end of June was 1.67m, a rise of 17pc on the same period last year. The service, which was launched 70 years ago today, said it was dealing with 9,300 new debt problems and 8,000 new benefit problems every working day.

Within the total, Citizens Advice said enquiries about job seekers' allowance had doubled, while redundancy-related problems were up by three-quarters due to rising unemployment. It has also seen a 44pc rise in the number of people with mortgage arrears and a 53pc jump in the number of people struggling to pay their fuel bills.

The figures were released to mark the 70th anniversary of the foundation of the group at the start of the Second World War.

Citizens Advice said it spent its first decade helping people with war-related problems, such as tracing missing relatives, getting back on their feet after losing everything when their house was bombed, sorting out problems with rationing and helping to evacuate mothers and children.

But by the 1950s debt had already become a regular feature of its case load, as the introduction of hire purchase agreements encouraged people to buy consumer goods on the 'never-never'. Housing problems also accounted for around one in three enquiries due to a housing shortage, overcrowding and the end of rent controls.

Debt was firmly on the agenda by the 1980s, with two recessions leading to debt and benefit enquiries doubling as unemployment soared.

It said since the turn of the millennium demand for specialist money advice had escalated, as the credit boom led to rising numbers of people having increasingly complex debt problems. It added that problems with tax credits had also left many of the families the benefit was designed to help facing hardship and debt.

The group now handles around six million problems a year, and has been used by half of the population at some point in their lives.

David Harker, chief executive of Citizens Advice, said: ''From rationing to recession, the CAB has been there for people in times of crisis throughout all the past 70 years. Dipping into the decades of our history shows that some of the problems people have may have changed but the need for our service certainly has not.

''As we celebrate our 70th birthday our new figures show that what started out as an emergency service in wartime is needed now more than ever as the recession continues to take its toll on people'

De Cárpatos:

Reino Unido

Moddys reafirma AAA para Reino Unido...sin comentarios...la libra sube ante la noticia. Si con todo lo que pasó en Reino Unido siempre mantuvo AAA, no tengo ningún comentario que hacer. Cada vez me atrae más dejar esto y dedicarme a cultivar alcachofas.

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