Parece que el default en Rusia está mas cerca de lo previsto, en esta crisis los problemas no solo los van a tener los paises deudores que se las van a ver muy mal para hacer frente a los pagos sino tambien os paises acreedores que van a ver como van a dejar de cobrar importantes prestamos de paises grandes y vana tener que provisionar sus bancos enormes perdidas.



En este sentido la mejor manera frente a los impagos tanto para poder cobrar como para dejar de pagar será un buen ejercito,quien tenga la fuerza suficiente dejará de pagar o podrá ejercer la fuerza suficiente para cobrar.

Parece que los deseos de la mafia anglo-judía y sus esbirros patrios tienen poco que ver con la realidad

ITAR-TASS

Russia’s birth rate hits record high in 2008 - Putin

MOSCOW, February 25 (Itar-Tass) - Russia’s birth rate hit its record high in 2008 since 1992, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin told a Presidium meeting of the Presidential Council for Priority National Projects and Demographic Policy.

“In 2008 there were 260,000 births more than three years ago. This is the highest birth rate since 1992,” he said.

“Moreover, as a result of the implementation of national priority projects life expectancy in Russia has increased almost by three years,” the prime minister said.

“Of course, this was the result not only of national projects proper, but of our efforts in different areas. This was the result of a better economic and social situation in the country,” Putin said.

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Dato mensual de empleo pasará a ser secreto en Rusia: reporte | Reuters

Dato mensual de empleo pasará a ser secreto en Rusia: reporte
miércoles 22 de abril de 2009 10:55 GYT

MOSCU (Reuters) - La oficina de estadísticas de Rusia convertirá en secretos los reportes mensuales del empleo, informó el miércoles un diario, días después de unos datos que mostraron una fuerte desocupación y de que los expertos dijeran que era la mayor amenaza a la estabilidad social.

El lunes, la agencia Rosstat reportó que alrededor de 1,8 millones de rusos habían perdido sus empleos en los tres primeros meses del 2009, llevando la tasa de desocupación al máximo en 8 años.

Pero fue la primera vez que no reveló los datos mensuales y el diario de negocios Kommersant citó fuentes anónimas que dijeron que ahora los reportes sólo serán públicos sobre una base trimestral. Rosstat no quiso comentar esta información.

De acuerdo con los cálculos de Reuters, la desocupación llegó al 11,9 por ciento en marzo desde 8,5 por ciento en febrero, suponiendo que los datos previos no se modificaron.

Unos 500.000 rusos perdieron sus puestos en enero, alrededor de 300.000 en febrero y los últimos datos sugirieron un récord de 700.000 desocupados nuevos en marzo.

Los responsables han estado diciendo que lo peor de la crisis podría haber pasado ya para Rusia, animados por la subida de los precios globales del petróleo, por la estabilización del rublo y la recuperación de las acciones domésticas.

Pero las organizaciones financieras internacionales como el Banco Mundial han dicho que el declive económico podría ser mucho más profundo de lo que predice el Gobierno e instaron a que Rusia incremente el gasto para evitar disturbios sociales.

"El cambio (en la información de los datos del desempleo) podría implicar un salto enorme en marzo que Rosstat busca suavizar con este nuevo método de información", dijo Rory MacFarquhar de Goldman Sachs.

"Una explicación más optimista sería que las autoridades estadísticas simplemente hayan decidido dejar de extrapolar cifras mensuales de sondeos menos frecuentes del empleo familiar para evitar distorsiones que han surgido durante la actual turbulencia sobre el mercado laboral", agregó.

El Gobierno prevé una contracción económica de sólo 2,2 por ciento en 2009 pero las organizaciones internacionales y grupos de expertos han dicho que la caída podría ser de hasta el doble.

(reporte de Yelena Fabrichnaya y Dmitry Zhdannikov)

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Las cosas no están como para echar cohetes... pero en ninguna parte...


RIA Novosti - Últimas noticias - Ministerio de Finanzas pronostica déficit presupuestario de 5% en Rusia para 2010 y 2011

Alucinante, si esto era una crisis de confianza desde luego que no vamos a salir nunca.

¿Cuánto tardaremos en ver algo así en más países de pandereta?

Me temo que no mucho.

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Por favor... que países... ni hacer un instituto nacional de empleo como dios manda saben hacer... es que...

Pero que les costará contratar al jefe del instituto español o al americano... y ya para redondearlo un instituto de estadística a la medida...

Tienes razón de pandereta, pero de mucha pandereta...

Si en el fondo siguen pensando en el KGB... es que...

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

The scale of credit rot in the Russian banking system exposed by Fitch Ratings this week is truly staggering. The report is yet another cold douche to those betting that the BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) can pull us out of our mess.

Lenders will need to raise $60bn (£37bn) in fresh capital if the “pessimistic scenario” unfolds. Bad loans could reach 40pc, although analysts are flying blind since bank disclosure “does not always capture all asset quality problems.” Uhhm.

The report follows an equally disturbing (if very different) note on the banks in China, where a “margin squeeze” has set off a explosion of unstable loan growth. Some might see as this as `good’, ie stimulatory, but since the liquidity is sloshing around a crushed economy that still lives off deflated US and EU export markets, it is largely leaking into asset speculation.

This is much like the US from mid-1928 to late-1929, a strange 15 months, often forgotten. By then the world economy had tipped over. Trade was contracting. Commodity prices were deflating. Yet leveraged funds flooded Wall Street, decoupled from the underlying reality. We all know what happened. The markets buckled for no obvious reason in September 1929, then cratered in October.

As for India, excuse me but with a combined budget deficit of 13pc of GDP (including fuel subsidies, which are kept off books) and “real” interest rates of minus 5.5pc, Delhi already has its foot to the floor. India is heading towards a debt compound trap as fast Britain — and there is a shocker.

No doubt India and China will thrive in the end, but it is wishful thinking to expect the BRICS to pull the whole global economy out of the debt-leverage dump.

But I digress. Fitch is coy about the exact meaning of a “pessimistic scenario” for Russia, but it is closely tied up with price of oil and metals. Commodities make up 80pc of Russia’s exports. Crude has of course jumped back up from the February low of $30s to around $70 a barrel, but is still half its mad peak of $147 last year.

Whether it will stay there is a disputed matter. The level of “cheating” by OPEC members is creeping up again. The International Energy Agency has slashed its outlook for the next five years, saying demand in 2013 will be 3.3m barrels a day less than previously expected: a) global growth is not going to roar back, given the massive headwinds, b) a lot more has been done to raise fuel efficiency than often realized.

Vladimir Putin has not yet fully understood the mess that he is in (he is not alone in that). This week he ordered banks to step up lending, ie to dig themselves deeper into a hole.
“I am asking the heads of financial institutions to control this situation and not to plan any summer holidays until the moment that this has been dealt with as it should,” he said.

Even by the Kremlin’s own count, Russia’s economy will contract by 8.5pc this year. Capital Economics says more like 10pc, with unemployment rising to 13pc by the end of next year. This is worse that the economic crunch following Russia’s default in 1998.

How far we are from the giddy heights of last summer, when Russia could imagine for a moment that it was a superpower once again, and Georgia felt the lash.

It is a fair bet that Russia will weather the crisis. Some $57bn in foreign debt must be rolled over this year but that is manageable. The Kremlin still has deep pockets. ($400bn in reserves, the world’s third largest). It can and certainly will step in to prevent a systemic crisis. The biggest four banks have already received $24bn in fresh capital. There will be no state default.

But if you want to plunge into Russian equities on the ground that they are still cheap, follow the advice of Kingsmill Bond, chief strategist at the Moscow investment bank Troika Dialog.

Avoid cash guzzlers such as Transneft and Gazprom with an attitude problem, ie contempt for investors. The government has a strategic stake in 68pc of listed stocks.

Stick to those with both free cash flow and eagerness to offer a decent dividend such as Sberbank, Peter Hambro Mining, Raspadskaya Coal, Baltika, TNK-BP, MTS, Uralkali, and NOVATEK.

Do your research. “Investors are starting to call into question the fanciful nature of calculations that underpin certain company valuations,” he said

Note a final warning from Mr Bond. The Moscow bourse tipped over a month or so before the oil price peaked in July last year. Equities were the early warning signal.

It has tipped over again, falling over 20pc since the start of June. We have been warned.

Telegraph Blogs Finance Keep an eye on Russia’s imploding banks