New Mogul | Business, Leadership, Management, and Financial News | Peter Schiff: The Beginning of the End - "our economy will now face death by hyperinflation"

Peter Schiff: el principio del fin.

The Beginning of the End

October 10, 2008

Peter Schiff, President and Chief Global Strategist

While I have warned for years that the United States was headed into the eye of an economic hurricane, nearly every other "expert" from Washington, Wall Street, the press and academia saw nothing ahead but sunny skies. Now, suddenly, there is an overwhelming consensus that absent the Federal mortgage bailout, my dire forecast would have come to pass. While I'm glad that rose colored glasses have finally been removed from so many eyes, the vast majority of these observers are still blind. In truth, the bailout plan substantially increases the threats to the U.S. economy.

When I wrote my book "Crash Proof", I not only predicted that our consumer/mortgage credit-based economy would fall apart, but that the government would ineptly try to repair it. The magnitude of those potential policies formed the basis of my worst case scenario. My fears have now been confirmed, and the U.S. Government is now set to destroy all hope of economic recovery.

Make no mistake; had the government resisted the political pressure to interfere with the markets, we would now be experiencing a very deep recession. But by refusing to let the markets work, policy makers are resisting the only medicine capable of curing the economic disease that afflicts us. The same mistakes were made in the early 1930's, causing a severe financial crisis to morph into the decade-long Great Depression.

The government will now attempt to keep bad loans from failing and real estate prices from falling. Rather then allowing market forces to rein in excess borrowing and replenish savings, it will encourage even more borrowing and drain what is left of our savings pool. Rather than allowing our economy to return to one based on legitimate production, it will continue to encourage reckless consumption.

In the end, by refusing to allow market forces to work their cure, our economy will inevitably die from the disease. Our economy will now face death by hyperinflation, which will cause a complete loss of confidence in the dollar and result in prices and interest rates skyrocketing out of sight. The evaporation of our national wealth will lead to civil unrest, food and energy shortages, and the possible imposition of martial law. If such a scenario unfolds, what is left of our Constitution will surely be completely shredded.

Although this reality looms as large as anything I have ever seen, investors still do not see the forest for the trees. Convinced that the bailout will actually work, and that foreign governments are derelict for not launching similar plans, global investors are fleeing other currencies in favor of the dollar. Soon investors will discover that foreign politicians and central bankers have acted responsibly. When they do, the current gains seen by the dollar will reverse violently.

Investors seem to be bracing themselves for a global depression that will not occur. Foreign stocks, particularly those exposed to China or natural resources, are trading at the lowest valuations I have seen in my entire career. Fears of a global meltdown are based on the misconception that the U.S. economy is the tent pole for economic activity around the world. The premise of my entire argument is that the U.S. economy, by consuming so much of the world's resources and manufactured goods, and borrowing so much of the world's savings, has in fact been a drag on the global economy.

The enormous global vendor financing scheme is finally coming to an end as the vendors discover that their biggest customer is flat broke. In the short run, our creditors are experiencing some pain because they finally realize that they will never get their money back.

Once the foreign stock markets take this hit, they will be far better poised to grow than their American counterpart. Foreigners will reclaim their productivity and savings for themselves, and will subsequently experience the biggest global economic boom in history. America on the other hand will fare much worse, as we will be left with a hollowed out manufacturing base, dilapidated infrastructure, no savings, and a gigantic Federal Government that will regulate, spend, borrow and print our economy into ruin.

For an updated look at my investment strategy, order a copy of my just released book, "The Little Book of Bull Moves in Bear Markets." While the "bull moves" I forecast have yet to materialize, I am confident that given time they will. The good news is that now you actually have some time to put my strategy in place at favorable prices and exchange rates!

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No es que la economía de USA muera, por lo que dice desaparecería hasta la propia USA.

¡Bien! Una buena noticia, sin duda.

Te aseguro que no entiendo muy bien el escenario en el que nos encontramos, por un lado todo se está ralentizando y el aumento del paro unido al bajo consumo nos debe llevar a una deflación de libro.

Por otro lado se esta inyectando tanto billete al sistema que cuando afloren la inflación puede ser la mayor de la historia.

¿intentan compensar? ¿onde coño estamos?

cuando la economia empiece a recuperarse se necesitarán importantes subidas de tipos para evitar que la inflación se dispare.

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"Las mujeres hemos sufrido injusticias durante años, ahora os toca sufrir a vosotros hijos de puta"

ante la maltratadora toleranzia zero

POLITICOS E INDIGNADOS LA MISMA MIERDA


condena media para un hombre que mata a su mujer: 17 años

condena media para una mujer que mata a su marido: 3,5 años

las mujeres cometen el 25% de los delitos pero son solo el 8% de los presos

Entonces nada de escenario deflacionista

En realidad, no se esta inyectando tanto billete al sistema. Porque el sistema no traga. Son parches temporales. No creo que ni tan siquiera hayan conseguido insuflar tanto como ya se ha perdido en las quiebras y en las bajadas.

Eso si, podría darse el caso de que toda la inflación exportada por USA, de perderse la confianza en el dolar volviera a USA de golpe, y entonces podriamos deflactar todos, e hiperinflacionar ellos. Imagina que china saca al mercado todos sus dolares...

Se daría justo ese escenario: Desaparecería gran parte de la riqueza mundial por la devaluación del dolar, lo que causaría deflación en los países que tienen mucho dolar, mientras que en USA habría hiperinflación.

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It was the year of fire... the year of destruction... the year we took back what was ours. It was the year of rebirth... the year of great sadness... the year of pain... and the year of joy. It was a new age. It was the end of history. It was the year everything changed.

Estamos jodidos, entonces.

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Yo sigo pensando que vamos a un invierno kondratieff

Kondratieff wave The Theroxylandr in Flame

Simplemente hay que meter dinero sacandolo de deuda para evitar la enorme desaparicion de dinero por el valor 0 de la deuda basura y de las perdidas de los bancos.

Recordad que si el dinero es deuda y no se crea nueva deuda el dinero desaparece a toda velocidad

Cuando los 1.3 billones de euros se consuman.... continuaremos con el problema pero mas grande

El escenario es deflacionista en mi opinion... hay que limpiar los excesos si o si y ha empezado y esto no hay quien lo pare.

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El saber no ocupa lugar.... Pero marca la diferencia

http://theroxylandr.wordpress.com/in...g/kondratieff/ las 4 estaciones economicas de kondratieff --> ahora invierno

No me hacen ninguna pena.

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Hay mucha diferencia entre ser pobre y ser lo suficientemente rico, pero hay muy poca diferencia entre ser suficientemente rico y muy rico. La propiedad es una trampa.


Ganador Porra parados diciembre 2009


http://www.strikermanager.com/regist...?id_inv=150192

Para que haya circulación de petróleo en un oleoducto las tuberías tienen que estar llenas. A partir de ese momento lo que se pone por un extremo sale por el otro, pero primero deben estar llenos los tubos. La devaluación de los activos (que era el dinero de relleno del sistema financiero) no tiene corrección posible salvo que el dinero llegue directamente a la gran masa de consumidores: repartir 40000 euros per cápita, en el estilo de los 400 de la campaña electoral, por ejemplo.

El petróleo, su precio, que yo interpreto como un indicador de de la tendencia inflacionista/deflacionista ha subido hoy un 4 %, mucho menos que las bolsas. Los últimos recortes de tipos y los previsibles, incluso la propuesta de Krugman, parecen indicar que lo verdaderamente preocupante es la deflación, pero si la alternativa es una hiperinflación quizás sea peor el remedio que la enfermedad. Además que está por ver la capacidad de las autoridades monetarias es capaz de inducir inflación en la situación actual, aunque presten el dinero sin interés.