GEAB N°26 est disponible! Alerte LEAP/E2020 - Juillet-Décembre 2008 : Le monde plonge au coeur de la phase d'impact de la crise systémique globale
- Communiqué public GEAB N°26 (numéro spécial été 2008 - 31 pages !)



A l'occasion de ce numéro 26 - Spécial Eté 2008 - du Global Europe Anticipation Bulletin, l'équipe de LEAP/E2020 a décidé de lancer une alerte sur la période Juillet-Décembre 2008. En effet, notre équipe est désormais convaincue que cette période sera caractérisée par un plongeon de l'ensemble de la planète au coeur de la phase d'impact de la crise systémique globale. Les six mois qui viennent vont donc constituer le vrai noyau de la crise en cours. Les turbulences des douze derniers mois n'en ont été qu'une faible prémisse.

.................... sigue:

http://www.leap2020.eu/GEAB-N-26-est...c4584086a231a7

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traduscan..............

GEAB N°26 is available! LEAP/E2020 Summer 2008 Alert – July-December 200 The world plunges into the heart of the global systemic crisis
- Public announcement GEAB N°26 (Summer 2008 Special Edition - 31 pages!) -



On the occasion of this 26th – Summer 2008 Special – edition of the Global Europe Anticipation Bulletin, the LEAP/E2020 team has decided to launch an alert on the July-December 2008 period. Indeed, our team is now convinced that this period will consist for the whole world in a major plunge into the heart of the phase of impact of the global systemic crisis. The upcoming six months are in fact the core of the unfolding crisis. The troubles met in the past six months were mere harbingers.

http://www.leap2020.eu/GEAB-N-26-is-...c4584086a231a7

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mañana lo publican en español. Si te defiendes con el inglés:

http://www.leap2020.eu/GEAB-N-26-is-...bal_a1800.html


GEAB N°26 is available! LEAP/E2020 Summer 2008 Alert – July-December 200 The world plunges into the heart of the global systemic crisis
- Public announcement GEAB N°26 (Summer 2008 Special Edition - 31 pages!) -


GEAB N°26 is available! LEAP/E2020 Summer 2008 Alert – July-December 200 The world plunges into the heart of the global systemic crisis
On the occasion of this 26th – Summer 2008 Special – edition of the Global Europe Anticipation Bulletin, the LEAP/E2020 team has decided to launch an alert on the July-December 2008 period. Indeed, our team is now convinced that this period will consist for the whole world in a major plunge into the heart of the phase of impact of the global systemic crisis. The upcoming six months are in fact the core of the unfolding crisis. The troubles met in the past six months were mere harbingers.



US consumer confidence index (1978-05/2008) – Source: Briefing.com / Conference Board
In the next semester indeed, all the components of the crisis (financial, monetary, economic, strategic, social, political… ones) will converge at the height of their intensity (1). Avoiding to repeat a de******ion of the various sequences already anticipated in the previous editions of the GEAB, our researchers have decided to describe the trends that will be at work in the world's main regions in the next six months. Therefore they analyse eight fundamental processes that will mark the next semester and affect decisively the years 2009-2010, i.e.:

1. A Dollar in distress (EUR 1 = USD 1.75 at the end of 2008): Panic-fear of a US currency and economy collapse eats into the American collective psyche

2. Global financial system: An impossible requirement – placing Washington under international trusteeship – provokes the system's break

3. European Union: The periphery sinks into the recession, the Eurozone only slows down

4. Asia: The « double whammy » inflation/export-collapse

5. Latin America: Difficulties increase but growth remains steady in most parts of the region, Mexico and Argentina in crisis

6. Arab world: Pro-Western regimes go adrift / 60 percent risk of socio-political explosion on Egypt-Morocco axis

7. Iran: 70 percent probability of an attack by October 2007 confirmed

8. Banks/Speculative bubbles: When bubbles collide

In parallel, LEAP/E2020 presents five strategic advices for the intention of central banks, governments and regulatory authorities, aimed at reducing and channelling the very bad consequences of the phase of impact of the crisis.

As to private investors, LEAP/E2020 develops in this 26th issue of the GEAB, a series of 8 operational advices for them to avoid committing fatal mistakes in the course of the next semester.

For this public announcement, LEAP/E2020 chose to present its anticipation on the upcoming break of the global financial system.

Global financial system: An impossible requirement – placing Washington under international trusteeship – provokes the system's break



Who owns the US debt? – Source: Fincher
Washington's decision to raise the bids for the return to a « strong Dollar », by compelling Ben Bernanke to intervene, bears the seeds of an acceleration of the global financial system's breaking process (2).

Ben Bernanke is indeed the last wall before the largest US currency and asset owners become fully aware of the fact that Washington no longer has the means of its monetary policy. What used to be a deliberate policy of currency drop (when it was decided to stop publishing M3 in March 2006, as announced by LEAP/E2020) in order to reduce the country's trade deficits and the real value (for themselves) of the their debt (labelled in Dollar), turned against its perpetrators entailing a major outflow (capital outflow, steadiness of trade deficits, soaring inflation...). The « Bernanke » card is the last « psychological » card Washington can play. The fact of using it proves that US leaders have reached the last limits of what they can do to hold back their partners into the system founded after 1945 and based on the US economy and currency (3).

In a few weeks time (after the next G8- and other organisations-meetings have taken place), when it will be confirmed that there is no way to stabilise the US currency (not to mention the eccentric idea of pushing it up) because the US economy is sinking always deeper into the recession and because the world is already filled with US Dollars no one knows what to do with, then the global financial system will burst out in various sub-systems trying to survive as much as they can before a new global financial equilibrium is found (4). As he is embarking on this road to nowhere, consciously or not, voluntarily or not, Ben Bernanke is signing the end of the current financial system. The return to a “strong Dollar” is a bit like the « liberation of Iraq » : wishful thinking turning into a nightmare.



The inverted pyramid of global liquidity - Sources: Bank of International Settlements / Independent Strategy
As a matter of fact, if Washington really intended to stabilise the Dollar or, more ambitiously, to push it up against the other currencies, there would only be one way (5), in two parts: raising significantly the Fed's interest rates, and lowering drastically the pace of money printing. But if the government decided to implement this type of policy, the US economy (both real and financial) stops dead a few weeks after : the real estate market falls to zero by lack of affordable credit and as a result of soaring interests on Adjustable Rate Mortgage loans, consumption becomes negative (i.e. shrinks back each month), corporate failures multiply exponentially, Wall Street collapses under the burden of innumerable debts and succumbs to the instantaneous implosion of the CDS market due to counterparties default...

Such a series of events, sure to happen if Washington implements a voluntary policy of dollar-rescue, is probably unacceptable by the US authorities. Therefore, apart from talking – and further self-discrediting – they cannot do anything. The method used in the past decades is no longer available: no one will accept to buy large amounts of Dollars in order to rescue the US currency if some voluntary policy (like the one described previously) is not implemented by Washington. As they will not do it, the rest of the world will draw its own conclusions: everyman for himself, knowing that from mid-August onward, as Beijing is relieved from the constraint of the Olympic Games, a large number of “tough” options (6), put on the back burner until the Games, will resurface (7).

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Notes:

(1) For a more detailed calendar of these trends, see GEAB N°18.

(2) The Bank of International Settlements is beginning to worry about a risk of global Great Depression. Source: Banking Times, 06/09/2008

(3) Source: Euro Pacific Capital, 05/23/2008

(4) On this subject, read in GEAB N°26 our advice to central banks, governments and regulatory authorities.

(5) We will disregard the other option consisting in bombing the ECB, the Bank of China and the Bank of Japan.

(6) Source: ContreInfo, 04/21/2008

(7) As Russia is becoming the largest oil-producer - before Saudi Arabia - in the world, the balance of power on the oil market is also changing a lot. Source: Times of India, 06/12/2008

Lundi 16 Juin 2008

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Y España no tiene deuda impagables de EE.UU. ???

Que suerte

Si, "All other"

España no necesita traer nada de fuera. Tiene sus propias "deudas impagables".

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de España ya hablaron en el GEAP 20

http://www.leap2020.eu/Inmuebles-eur...una_a1741.html

España
En España, la situación del mercado de bienes raíces es simplemente desastrosa con un descenso de casi el 50% de las casas en construcción en un año y el stock de casas no vendidas pasó de 16, 4 a 24, 5 meses en el ámbito nacional (2). Comparado con el 2006, el colapso es aún más perceptible porque las proyecciones para las construcciones del 2008 son aproximadamente 300.000 que, comparadas con más de 900.000 en 2006, es una caída del 70%.

Las consecuencias económicas de este colapso del mercado inmobiliario español son desastrosas. El sector inmobiliario y el de la construcción están en grave crisis (3). Los medios españoles están llenos de historias de agentes inmobiliarios que no venden nada durante meses, o empresas constructoras o ligadas a la construcción inmobiliaria cuyo trabajo se congeló debido a la insolvencia de los promotores. El 75% de las inmobiliarias quebrarán en el 2008 (4).

Como lo previó el LEAP/E2020, el 2007 ha sido el año de la explosión de burbuja inmobiliaria en España. Para nuestro equipo, en el 2008 se producirá la crisis económica y financiera. Detrás de las reiteradas seguridades, del Banco Central Español y de los principales bancos del país, afirmando que esta crisis no tiene nada en común con la crisis de la “subprime” de los Estados Unidos y que las instituciones financieras españolas son sanas, no hay nada distinto del habitual discurso tranquilizador que precede a las graves crisis (con el agregado de un contexto global de crisis del crédito). Así los bancos españoles han comenzado a reducir considerablemente sus créditos para inmuebles (y el consumo en general); y están comenzando a perder la confianza de los inversores internacionales como lo ilustra el reciente fracaso del BBVA (segundo banco español) en vender más de una cuarta parte de un programa de 6, 6 millones de euros respaldados por préstamos inmobiliarios. Con el segundo nivel de deuda internacional (inmediatamente después de Estados Unidos, ver GEAB N°17), y de los bancos que han alimentado en esos meses la burbuja inmobiliaria ahora por explotar, España, según nuestros investigadores, está a punto de entrar en una grave crisis socio-económica en el 2008.

El colapso del mercado inmobiliario seguirá y la economía del país se está dirigiendo hacia la recesión con un fondo de crisis bancaria nacional reforzado por el contexto internacional. Esta situación será una prueba de fuego, a gran escala, para los dirigentes de la Euro zona.

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Animosa, ya has escriturado tu nuevo tochito?

Hazlo antes de que te lo quiten de las manos...



Saludos

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estos leen el foro

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