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El precio del petróleo ha vuelto a colapsar hoy tras adivinarse que no va a haber recorte de la producción de la OPEP, al menos, no un recorte significativo que altere el desplome de los precios.
Ahora mismo, con este precio (75 USD), más de 400,000 barriles de petróleo diarios no serían rentables. Si el precio bajase a más de 55 USD, la burbuja usana del fracking pegaría un reventón: Ni siquiera Bakken en Dakota del Norte (la formación donde más crudo se extrae ahora) ni Eagle Ford en Texas (le va a la zaga a la anterior) serían rentables.
Parece todo una jugada saudí, que a corto plazo debería propulsar la economía hacia arriba mientras quiebran las compañías usanas del fracking, disminuye el aporte de éste al mercado de petróleo, y tras un tiempo, la OPEP volvería a hacerse con el control de la cuota de petróleo y podría subir los precios a su voluntad, al no tener que competir con el fracking usano.
Oil at $75 Means Patches of Texas Shale Turn Unprofitable
With crude at $75 a barrel, the price Goldman Sachs Group Inc. says will be the average in the first three months of next year, 19 U.S. shale regions are no longer profitable, according to data compiled by Bloomberg New Energy Finance.
Those areas, which include parts of the Eaglebine and Eagle Ford in East and South Texas, pumped about 413,000 barrels a day, according to the latest data available from Drillinginfo Inc. and company presentations. That compares with the 1.03 million-barrel gain in daily national output over the past year, government figures show.
The expansion of U.S. oil supply to more than 9 million barrels a day is contributing to a global glut, driving down prices by as much as 32 percent since June. The data compiled by BNEF, which take into account the costs of drilling, royalties and transportation, show that certain shale patches fail to make money at the current price. Companies such as SandRidge Energy Inc. (SD) and Goodrich Petroleum Corp. (GDP) said they expect to pump more oil for less money so they can withstand the rout.
“Everybody is trying to put a very happy spin on their ability to weather $80 oil, but a lot of that is just smoke,” said Daniel Dicker, president of MercBloc Wealth Management Solutions with 25 years’ experience trading crude on the New York Mercantile Exchange. “The shale revolution doesn’t work at $80, period.”
Break Even
West Texas Intermediate crude, the U.S. benchmark, fell to a four-year low of $73.25 a barrel on Nov. 14, from $107.73 on June 20. Goldman Sachs cut its first-quarter forecast to $75 a barrel on Oct. 27 from a previous forecast of $90.
(...)
Reduce Spending
Profitability varies depending on the rocks’ depth and density, access to pipelines and the mix of oil and gas that wells pump. Drillers in the Tuscaloosa Marine Shale of Louisiana and Mississippi break even at $79.52 a barrel because they have to bore more than two miles deep, according to data compiled by BNEF. The cheapest field was the Green River basin in Colorado and Wyoming, at $50.10 a barrel.
At least a dozen companies including Continental Resources Inc. (CLR) and SandRidge, both based in Oklahoma City, said on conference calls in the past month that they would reduce capital spending plans because of lower prices.
Apache Corp. said today it would cut spending in North America by 25 percent. The Houston-based company said it will still increase production by 8 percent to 12 percent, compared with an annual average of 29 percent since 2009.
Wells in the 19 regions that according to the data are unprofitable pumped a combined 273,745 barrels a day in June, 38 percent more than a year earlier, according to Drillinginfo, an Austin, Texas-based information provider to government and industry.
Data weren’t available for Oklahoma because government record keeping there is limited, according to Drillinginfo. In the state’s seven regions that the data compiled by BNEF say are unprofitable, companies including Continental and SandRidge said they produce at least another 139,360 barrels a day. Together, the two estimates come to about 413,000 barrels a day, which is 40 percent of the growth in daily U.S. production over the last year.
By contrast, the biggest-producing fields -- North Dakota’s Bakken and the Permian and Eagle Ford in Texas -- pump a combined 4.7 million barrels a day, according to the Energy Information Administration. Those regions remain economic at $55 to $65 a barrel, according to Manuj Nikhanj, head of energy research at New York-based Investment Technology Group Inc. What matters more than break-even levels is that lower prices reduce the cash flows companies can use to reinvest in new production, he said.
Oil at $75 Means Patches of Texas Shale Turn Unprofitable - Bloomberg
Ahora mismo, con este precio (75 USD), más de 400,000 barriles de petróleo diarios no serían rentables. Si el precio bajase a más de 55 USD, la burbuja usana del fracking pegaría un reventón: Ni siquiera Bakken en Dakota del Norte (la formación donde más crudo se extrae ahora) ni Eagle Ford en Texas (le va a la zaga a la anterior) serían rentables.
Parece todo una jugada saudí, que a corto plazo debería propulsar la economía hacia arriba mientras quiebran las compañías usanas del fracking, disminuye el aporte de éste al mercado de petróleo, y tras un tiempo, la OPEP volvería a hacerse con el control de la cuota de petróleo y podría subir los precios a su voluntad, al no tener que competir con el fracking usano.
Oil at $75 Means Patches of Texas Shale Turn Unprofitable
With crude at $75 a barrel, the price Goldman Sachs Group Inc. says will be the average in the first three months of next year, 19 U.S. shale regions are no longer profitable, according to data compiled by Bloomberg New Energy Finance.
Those areas, which include parts of the Eaglebine and Eagle Ford in East and South Texas, pumped about 413,000 barrels a day, according to the latest data available from Drillinginfo Inc. and company presentations. That compares with the 1.03 million-barrel gain in daily national output over the past year, government figures show.
The expansion of U.S. oil supply to more than 9 million barrels a day is contributing to a global glut, driving down prices by as much as 32 percent since June. The data compiled by BNEF, which take into account the costs of drilling, royalties and transportation, show that certain shale patches fail to make money at the current price. Companies such as SandRidge Energy Inc. (SD) and Goodrich Petroleum Corp. (GDP) said they expect to pump more oil for less money so they can withstand the rout.
“Everybody is trying to put a very happy spin on their ability to weather $80 oil, but a lot of that is just smoke,” said Daniel Dicker, president of MercBloc Wealth Management Solutions with 25 years’ experience trading crude on the New York Mercantile Exchange. “The shale revolution doesn’t work at $80, period.”
Break Even
West Texas Intermediate crude, the U.S. benchmark, fell to a four-year low of $73.25 a barrel on Nov. 14, from $107.73 on June 20. Goldman Sachs cut its first-quarter forecast to $75 a barrel on Oct. 27 from a previous forecast of $90.
(...)
Reduce Spending
Profitability varies depending on the rocks’ depth and density, access to pipelines and the mix of oil and gas that wells pump. Drillers in the Tuscaloosa Marine Shale of Louisiana and Mississippi break even at $79.52 a barrel because they have to bore more than two miles deep, according to data compiled by BNEF. The cheapest field was the Green River basin in Colorado and Wyoming, at $50.10 a barrel.
At least a dozen companies including Continental Resources Inc. (CLR) and SandRidge, both based in Oklahoma City, said on conference calls in the past month that they would reduce capital spending plans because of lower prices.
Apache Corp. said today it would cut spending in North America by 25 percent. The Houston-based company said it will still increase production by 8 percent to 12 percent, compared with an annual average of 29 percent since 2009.
Wells in the 19 regions that according to the data are unprofitable pumped a combined 273,745 barrels a day in June, 38 percent more than a year earlier, according to Drillinginfo, an Austin, Texas-based information provider to government and industry.
Data weren’t available for Oklahoma because government record keeping there is limited, according to Drillinginfo. In the state’s seven regions that the data compiled by BNEF say are unprofitable, companies including Continental and SandRidge said they produce at least another 139,360 barrels a day. Together, the two estimates come to about 413,000 barrels a day, which is 40 percent of the growth in daily U.S. production over the last year.
By contrast, the biggest-producing fields -- North Dakota’s Bakken and the Permian and Eagle Ford in Texas -- pump a combined 4.7 million barrels a day, according to the Energy Information Administration. Those regions remain economic at $55 to $65 a barrel, according to Manuj Nikhanj, head of energy research at New York-based Investment Technology Group Inc. What matters more than break-even levels is that lower prices reduce the cash flows companies can use to reinvest in new production, he said.
Oil at $75 Means Patches of Texas Shale Turn Unprofitable - Bloomberg
