Burbuja.info - Foro de economía > > > Opinión: Hoy puede ser un gran día, el euro se desploma hasta 1.33
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  #1  
Antiguo 20-ago-2014, 08:38
fyahball fyahball está desconectado
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jajjajajjaa el euro ha tocado 1.3299 en el broker fxcm, no sé los demás, la libra sobre 1,66 - espectacular la caída desde 1,72 - el oro por debajo de 1300$


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  #2  
Antiguo 20-ago-2014, 08:39
Coronel Kurtz Coronel Kurtz esta en línea ahora
ir-
 
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Se compra deuda española y se devalua el Euro frente al Dolar.


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  #3  
Antiguo 20-ago-2014, 08:41
fyahball fyahball está desconectado
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esto debería favorecer las exportaciones???

---------- Post added 20-ago-2014 at 044 ----------

700 pips ha caído desde el hilo de zparo, jjajajajja menudo indicador contrario, si bien merece respecto por lo de pescanova y otros hilos - se confirma el corto desde 1,40 como el trade del año en forex y zparo anunciando lo contrario


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  #4  
Antiguo 20-ago-2014, 08:48
BRAXTON BRAXTON esta en línea ahora
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El euro será sacrificado...a su debido momento.

La UE entera lo será.


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  #5  
Antiguo 20-ago-2014, 08:49
невежда невежда está desconectado
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Excelente noticia, mis apuestas ya iban por ahí ..

Última edición por невежда; 20-ago-2014 a las 09:16


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Antiguo 20-ago-2014, 08:56
Iron IQ Iron IQ está desconectado
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Me parece muy normal y muy sano una paridad de 1.25 incluso menor.
El $ está mantenido artificialmente a un curso bajo para que el petroleo y el gas se sigan vendiendo en dolares.
Cuando la paridad incrementa subiendo el dolar muchos pensarán utilizar otros monedas y esto es malo visto desde el otro lado del charco.


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  #7  
Antiguo 20-ago-2014, 08:57
estiercol inmobiliario estiercol inmobiliario esta en línea ahora
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Y el petróleo por debajo de 100$ (con lo que muchísimas extracciones no sean rentables). La agricultura y ganadería con sus productos en los mercados por debajo de su coste, etc.

Solo están haciendo NEGOCIO los especuladores, colocando deuda INCOBRABLE CADA DÍA MAS BARATA (dentro de poco negativa) y la banca rescatándose (ya que no puede caer).

Luego se preguntaran porque se ha caído el chiringuito

Cinco Días - Diario económico de referencia en España


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Antiguo 20-ago-2014, 09:01
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The geopolitical risks still remain (Russia and Ukraine conflict) which is affecting the Euro negatively. In addition, the Euro bloc recovery is still fragile, with three of the largest economies (Italy, France, Germany) in the Euro bloc recording preliminary growths in the range of -0.2% to 0%. In addition, the Euro bloc achieved a final GDP q/q result of 0% showing signs that the recovery is losing momentum. Mario Draghi may need to resort to other measures such as QE (Quantitative Easing) to revive the recovery. QE will help reduce the value of the Euro further (good for exporters), stimulate growth and ease disinflationary pressures. Mario Draghi needs to stick to his pledge of ‘whatever it takes’ to assure markets that a recovery will continue.

The Fed is expected to continue tapering at this week’s meeting. There have been no major hiccups in the economy. Although, there could be a major hiccup with the heavily inflated US equity markets. Once the Fed starts tapering and raising interest rates, we could see a devastating damage to the US recovery due to the US equity markets. It will be interesting to see what will happen when tapering concludes in October.

EUR/USD saw a new slide once again. but did not really make a substantial move. The focus is on the PMIs and on Mario Draghi speech in Jackson Hole. Here is an outlook on the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.

The Eurozone releases showed a stall in the euro area recovery with poor economic climate and sluggish growth in the second quarter. Germany’s ZEW economic sentiment plunged to 8.6 points from 27.1 in July, well below market forecast of 18.2 points, and the Current condition index fell to 44.3, indicating geopolitical tensions halt expansion in Germany. Furthermore, the Eurozone economies fail to generate real growth. Germany, the leading force in the euro area contracted 0.2% in the second quarter, according to preliminary GDP estimates, the first contraction in the German economy since Q4 of 2012. Likewise France economy remained flat form the first quarter. Will this trend continue?
Updates:

Aug 19, 15:53: Optimistic Housing Stats Lift Equity Futures: Price action in financial markets this morning suggests that no bad news surrounding geopolitical developments is viewed as good news by...
Aug 19, 14:34: New 9 month low for EUR/USD following US housing data: The good news from the US housing sector sends the dollar higher and EUR/USD tumbles below the previous support line...
Aug 19, 14:30: US housing data shines, inflation as expected – USD higher: US housing starts jump to 1.093 million (annualized), a jump of 15.7%. Buildign permits leap to 1.052 million, much better...
Aug 19, 13:07: EUR/USD Aug. 19 – Markets Await US CPI Data: EUR/USD is trading quietly on Tuesday, as the pair trades in the mid-1.33 range in the European session. On the release front, there...
Aug 19, 11:10: UK inflation data rocks Sterling: Sterling will be closely watching the inflation data today. Last month saw a sharp rise in the headline rate to...
Aug 18, 15:19: About-Face From Carney Lifts Pound: After a bumpy end to last week, global equities are gaining traction this morning, with high-yielding assets garnering attention as...
Aug 18, 13:41: Euro bloc recovery still fragile: The geopolitical risks still remain (Russia and Ukraine conflict) which is affecting the Euro negatively. In addition, the Euro bloc...
Aug 18, 12:45: EUR/USD Aug. 18 – Clings to 1.34 as Fed focused week begins: EUR/USD starts another week in August with slow trading around the 1.34 level. We have seen the pair slide for several...
Aug 18, 12:2 EUR/USD in a triangle – Elliott Wave Analysis: Interestingly, despite some interesting swings on stocks, the FX market remains in corrective mode. On EURUSD we still see a...
Aug 18, 11:19: EUR/AUD On Verge Of A Major Breakdown: The Euro is trading lower against many major currencies, including the Australian dollar. The German and French GDP data were...
Aug 18, 10:20: Monitoring Sterling Volatility: A calmer tone has emerged in the past few sessions that suggests the second half of the month could prove...
Aug 18, 7:21: EUR/USD to lose 1.30 by year end?: So both German and Italian GDP growth contracted 0.2% in Q2. Investment and construction are weak but the conventional wisdom...
Aug 18, 0:12: EUR/CAD remains at risk: Technical Bias: Bearish Key Takeaways • Euro is trading lower against the Canadian dollar, as the Euro bears take control....
rade Balance: Monday, 9:00. The euro zone’s trade surplus widened less-than-expected in May, reaching €15.3 billion from a surplus of €15.2 billion in April. Exports climbed to €160.5 billion in May, from €159.6 billion in April, and imports increased to €145.2 billion, from €144.4 billion in the preceding month. On an unadjusted basis, the surplus remained at EUR 15.4 billion. The trade surplus is expected to narrow to14.98 billion.
Current Account: Tuesday, 00. The Eurozone current account surplus declined in May to a seasonally adjusted EUR 19.5 billion from EUR 21.6 billion in April. The surplus products declined to EUR 13.8 billion from EUR 16.9 billion in the previous month. Meanwhile, the surplus on services edged up to EUR 13 billion from EUR 10 billion. Income narrowed sharply to EUR 1.7 billion from EUR 5.4 billion. However, the deficit in current transfers narrowed to EUR 8.9 billion from EUR 10.7 billion. The Eurozone current account surplus is expected to widen to 21.3 billion this time.
German PPI: Wednesday, 6:00. German producer prices dropped again in June, however at a slower pace. Producer prices declined 0.7%, following 0.8% drop in May, in line with market forecast. Energy prices continued to fall, dropping 2.4% in June. While, prices of commodities edged up 1.3% and prices of consumer goods and capital goods increased 0.9% and 0.5%, respectively. On a monthly base, producer prices remained unchanged in June, after the 0.2% fall in May. German producer prices are forecasted to rise 0.1%.
Manufacturing and Services PMIs: Thursday. The Eurozone’s economic recovery rebounded slowly in July, driven by Germany and the services sector. However the crisis in Ukraine is a big concern for companies, making it hard to commit to new purchases, investment and hiring. The Eurozone services sector expanded to 54.4 from 52.8, reaching its highest level in more than three years. However, despite the rebound in services the sector, companies did not expand their workforces, while continuing to cut their selling prices. Meanwhile the euro area manufacturing sector inched higher to 51.9 from 51.8 in June. Germany continued to strengthen with a sharp expansion in the services sector, rising at the fastest pace in more than three years, reaching 56.6, gaining 2 points from June. However the Ukraine situation poses a major risk on future prospects. German manufacturing also improved, rising to 52.9 form 52 in the prior month. France remained the weak link among the largest economies in the euro area. Private-sector activity in July rose to 50.4 from 48.2 in June, reaching expansion. But the manufacturing PMI fell to 47.6 from 48.2 to reach a seven-month low. Except for the rise in the Eurozone’s services sector, the general tone continued to be gloomy, with new orders falling for the fourth straight month, while employment fell for the ninth straight month. French Manufacturing is expected to improve to 47.9, while services is expected to reach 50.3, German Manufacturing is expected to drop to 51.8, and Services to 55.5, Eurozone Manufacturing is expected to decline to 51.4, and Services to 53.6.
Consumer Confidence: Thursday, 14:00. Consumer sentiment in the euro zone plunged below expectations in July, falling to -8.4 from a revised -7.5 in June. Analysts expected the index to rise to -6. The sharp decline raises concerns over the Euro-area’s economic recovery. The chief concern is the conflict in eastern Ukraine, where separatists backed by Russia are fighting government forces. As a result the Eurozone considers imposing economic sanctions on Russia, a leading economy in the Europe. Such measures could endanger the euro zone economic recovery. A Consumer sentiment is expected to drop further to -9.
Mario Draghi speaks: Friday, 130. European Central Bank head Mario Draghi will follow Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium and talk about employment issues. Market volatility is expected especially as the new data, especially GDP is certainly worrying. Could Draghi up the ante on the chance of QE?The round number of 1.37, is another support line after capping the pair in December yet it is weakening. 1.3677 was the peak in June so far, and could turn into important resistance.

1.3650 worked as strong resistance during May and June but is weakening now. 1.3585 served as the bottom of the range and still carries weight despite the breakdown in June. 1.3550 worked as support in January but is now weakening.

The round number of 1.35 worked as the last cushion in June and is strong also due to the roundness. 1.3450 worked as resistance in August 2013 and as support in September and October. It is now a key line on the upside.

The 1.3415 level managed to cap the pair in August and serves as a barrier before 1.3450. Below, the next line of support is only at 1.3333, a level that worked as a cushion to the pair during August and just above 1.3325 that separated ranges back in September 2013.

1.3295 is the next line: it was the low level in November. Below this line the round number of 1.32 is the important due to its role in August 2013.

Even lower, 1.3250 was a stepping stone for the pair when it was on its way up in 2013. The last line for now is 1.3175.

Narrowing downtrend channel

As the thick black lines on the chart show, the pair is trading within two downtrend lines in recent months. Downtrend resistance, that begins from the near 1.40 peak and was mentioned here before is quite far from the line at the moment. Downtrend support accompanies the pair from May and was formed in June. The pair is in the upper part of the channel.

I remain bearish on EUR/USD

The divergence in economic performance between the steadily growing United States (despite some bumps) and the very fragile recovery in the euro-zone continues. This goes hand in hand with monetary policy that is also going in separate directions. The forward looking PMIs could now point continued weakness in the euro-zone also in the months ahead.

More EUR/USD: Forex Analysis: EUR/USD Stalls within Strong Bearish Trend

If you are interested a different way of trading currencies, check out the weekly binary options setups, including EUR/USD and more.The euro dropped to fresh nine month lows against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday, as upbeat U.S. housing data and a report showing that U.S. inflation was in line with expectations last month lent broad support to the greenback. Meanwhile, sentiment on the single currency remained vulnerable after poor economic growth data last week added to pressure on the European Central Bank to implement fresh measures to shore up the faltering recovery in the region.

EUR/USD Hour Chart
EUR/USD Hour Chart

GBP/USD
The pound dropped to a four month low versus the dollar after a report showed U.K. inflation slowed more in July than economists forecast, giving the Bank of England extra room to delay raising interest rates. Sterling weakened against U.S. dollar after data published by the Office for National Statistics showed the rate of consumer-price inflation fell to 1.6 percent from a year earlier, compared with 1.9 percent in June. The central bank today is scheduled to publish the minutes of its August policy meeting, when officials left the benchmark rate at a record-low 0.5 percent. U.K. government bonds rose.

GBP/USD Hour Chart
GBP/USD Hour Chart

USD/JPY
The Japanese yen was little changed at 102.95 per dollar. Japan’s exports rose more than forecast in July, bouncing back from two straight declines to support an economy that contracted last quarter by the most since a record earthquake in 2011. Overseas shipments rose 3.9 percent from a year earlier, the finance ministry said in Tokyo today. Imports rose 2.3 percent, leaving a deficit of 964 billion yen ($9.36 billion).

USD/JPY Hour Chart
USD/JPY Hour Chart

USD/CAD
The Canadian dollar may weaken to a five-year low as slow economic growth and rising U.S. interest rates spark a retreat from the country’s corporate debt similar to that seen in government bonds. The currency could weaken more than five cents to C$1.15 per U.S. dollar over the next year as stronger U.S. growth prompts the Fed to increase record-low borrowing costs, Yu said. With higher interest rates available in the U.S., the relative yield advantage of Canadian corporate debt will disappear, eliminating a capital flow that’s supported the currency amid an exodus from the country’s government debt, he said.


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  #9  
Antiguo 20-ago-2014, 11:02
racional racional esta en línea ahora
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Donde estan los que decian que iba a caer el dolar, y ahi esta subiendo!


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  #10  
Antiguo 20-ago-2014, 11:14
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Realmente es el dolar quien sube

La paridad euro-libra y euro-yen intactas. Y el franco suizo sigue ligado en 1,2

Las materias primas medidos en dolares a la baja, por lo que el precio de combustibles y demás poco va a variar.

A europa esto le viene de perlas ya que la inflación es nula, si la sube algo mejor. Y además estimula el crecimiento con las exportaciones.

Hasta 1,2 el EUR/US$ hay un muy largo recorrido, dudo que llegue a esos niveles, y es un soporte que los americanos parece que se niegan a sobrepasar porque estanca su economía.


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