¿Volverá el euríbor a niveles normales?
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De Idealista:
Cita:
vengo observando últimamente un vicio en el lenguaje de los inmoconstructores/banqueros/previsionistas oficiales que me hace bastante gracia, pues por un lado demuestra como intentan manipular hasta en la admisión de la derrota y por otro deja clara la excepcionalidad de la situación que ha hecho posible la burbuja y lo improbable que es que el escenario se mantenga. me refiero a la coletilla "cuando los tipos de interes vuelvan a niveles normales" refiriendose a la posibilidad de que el euribor se situe en los niveles del año pasado.

esos denominados "niveles normales" solo pueden considerarse normales si el periodo de estudio se reduce a los 2 o 3 últimos años, ya que en cuanto se abre el campo esa normalidad se descubre totalmente anormal, y cuanto mas ampliamos la ventana de tiempo, mas nos damos cuenta de lo excepcional que ha sido el último periodo.

el tipo de interes medio histórico en españa en los últimos 60 años ronda el 7% (para el que diga que ahora con el euro y noseque, le comento que el promedio aleman es similar), todavia no hace 15 años que se situó en dobles digitos por última vea, antes del último lustro nunca habia permanecido mucho tiempo por debajo del 4% y si no recuerdo mal, nunca hasta este último ciclo se habia bajado del 3% . y sin embargo gente a la que los conocimientos de economia se les presuponen tienen la desvergüenza de abogar por una "vuelta a la normalidad" que seria mas anormal que un niño con 7 brazos y 3 cabezas.

suerte con el euribor, pero a medio plazo lo teneis fatal.

Oct. 17 (Bloomberg) -- European Central Bank council member Klaus Liebscher said the bank remains focused on ``significant'' and rising inflation risks, suggesting it may still raise interest rates.
``The message was and is that risks to price stability are clearly pointing to the upside,'' Liebscher, who also heads Austria's central bank, said in an interview in Vienna yesterday. ``There are significant upside risks'' and ``rising oil prices are also increasing these risks to price stability.''
The ECB on Oct. 4 left its key rate at 4 percent after shelving a planned increase in September to assess how the U.S. housing slump and rising credit costs will affect the economy. At the same time, inflation breached the ECB's 2 percent limit for the first time in more than year last month and oil prices yesterday rose above $88 a barrel.
``We'll probably see inflation accelerate to 2.7 percent by November following the surge in oil prices,'' said Holger Schmieding, chief European economist at Bank of America in London. ``We can't rule out'' a rate increase in December.
The euro rose to $1.4184 at 11:21 a.m. in Frankfurt from $1.4173 before the interview was published. It reached a record $1.4282 on Oct. 1.
`Robust' Growth
Liebscher expressed confidence in the economic outlook.
``I'm firmly convinced that we still have ongoing and rather robust economic growth in the euro area,'' he said. While there ``may be a moderate weakening'' in growth next year, the economy will still expand ``between 2 percent and 2.5 percent.''
The U.S. Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by half a percentage point to 4.75 percent on Sept. 18 to prevent the world's largest economy from slipping into recession.
Rising defaults on U.S. mortgages aimed at people with a poor credit history have made banks reluctant to lend, pushing up global credit costs. The ECB has offered banks extra cash in a series of special auctions to help restore confidence in the market.
``We're closer to a normal situation'' on money markets, Liebscher said. ``It will take at least until next year. It's still too early'' to comment on the economic impact.
The euro-region economy is already showing some signs of slowing. Europe's manufacturing industry grew at the weakest pace since 2005 last month. In Germany, the region's largest economy, business confidence fell to a 19-month low in September.
Euro, Oil
While the euro's 7 percent gain against the dollar this year is threatening to weigh on exports, it's also helping to mitigate the impact of surging oil prices. Crude rose to a record $88.20 a barrel yesterday and cost $87.29 today, up 73 percent since mid- January.
Signs of discord are starting to emerge among the 19 ECB council members on the best way forward for monetary policy.
Germany's Axel Weber said Oct. 11 that there may be an ``additional need'' to raise interest rates, given the ``expected acceleration in euro-region inflation over the coming months.'' Finnish colleague Erkki Liikanen also told lawmakers in Helsinki today that ``inflation risks are on the upside in the medium term.''
Still, Spain's Miguel Angel Fernandez Ordonez said Oct. 9 that market turmoil ``suggests an increase in downside risks for economic activity'' which ``may also have mitigated, to a certain extent'' risks to price stability.
Economists Divided
``It's clear that not every member has the same focus or the same argument,'' Liebscher said. ``In a more uncertain environment, we have to be even more cautious in the data assessment to take the right decisions'' on interest rates.
Economists are divided over whether the ECB will raise interest rates further. While Commerzbank AG expects the governing council to keep borrowing costs on hold for the next year, Merrill Lynch sees an increase in the key rate to 4.25 percent in December and Bear Stearns International forecasts the bank will cut the benchmark in the first quarter of 2008.
``The market is now rather evenly split between those expecting further ECB rate hikes and those who think the next step will be a cut,'' said Martin Lueck, an economist at UBS AG in Frankfurt. UBS expects the ECB to keep the key rate at 4 percent this year and next.
``If there's confusion it's probably because we had events over the past weeks that we didn't have in the previous months, and maybe even years,'' Liebscher said. ``The ECB governing council has never left any doubt that we'll follow our course.''
To contact the reporters on this story: Simone Meier in Frankfurt at smeier@bloomberg.net ; Andreas Scholz in Frankfurt on agscholz@bloomberg.net .
Last Updated: October 17, 2007 06:01 EDT

Iniciado por Topdown

La respuesta es mucho más simple.

Es la expectativa del tipo de interés del bce A UN AÑO. Esto quiere decir que, 23 de octubre del año que viene, los principales analistos y bancos creen que el Euribor puede estar entre el 4,5 y el 4,75%.