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Antiguo 20-sep-2007, 10:58
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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/mai...cnspain119.xml


Spain faces frightening parallels to Britain
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Last Updated: 12:51am BST 19/09/2007



Spanish officials have furiously denied reports that the country’s property market is heading for a crash or that a clutch of banks may be in the same boat as Northern Rock.

More on the credit crisis
Interest rates special
Miguel Angel Ordoñez, the Bank of Spain’s governor, told the Spanish parliament yesterday that the country’s financial system was “immensely solid” despite the dramatic fall in the share price of mid-sized banks and construction firms geared to the deflating property bubble.

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“The current turbulence has highlighted the downside risks to growth but Spanish institutions face this episode from strength. Exposure to [sub-prime debt] is insignificant: the problem is we don’t know where the losses are, or who owns what,” he said. “The biggest favour the banks can do is to come clean on losses.”

The central bank also denied reports that its financial institutions had required “emergency liquidity” along the lines of Northern Rock, but the statement failed to end doubts since Spanish banks have been able to borrow unlimited sums cheaply from the European Central Bank’s window.

David Taguas, the prime minister’s chief economic adviser, said: “To talk about severe adjustments or a meltdown in prices is ridiculous. That sort of crisis is unthinkable. We have…one of the most efficient financial systems in the world. That’s insurance in times of turbulence.”

The reactions follow a scathing report on the Spanish banks by Citigroup that sent tremors through the Madrid bourse. The note downgraded Banco Popular, Banco Sabadell, Banesto and Bankinter, warning the credit crunch had changed the picture for Spanish lenders that rely on the wholesale capital markets. It was exactly this sort of funding that caused Northern Rock’s troubles. The Spanish banks’ shares have fallen almost 40pc since April.

“Spain’s mid-cap banks have some of Europe’s lowest core capital ratios (6.12pc) and the highest loan-to-deposit ratios (182pc). The freeze in credit markets reverses all the prior positives for investing in these cap banks,” said Kato Mukuru, the note’s author.

He added the debt-driven M&A deals that enriched these banks are likely to become rarer in the new climate, while a mismatch of maturities would eat into profit margins. The banks rely on three-month paper to raise funds, but their assets are on a 12-month cycle.

Adding to the woes, the spreads on Spanish AA mortgage bonds have leapt from 21 to 100 basis points over Euribor.

The banks are highly exposed to the Spanish housing market. After rising 270pc since 1995, house prices have begun to fall in parts of northern Spain, slipping 2.1pc in Barcelona and Madrid so far this year. Over 98pc of all mortgages are priced off floating Libor rates, causing mortgage payments to almost double in under two years. Construction has reached 18pc of GDP, more than Germany (15pc) at the height of the reunification boom.

David Owen, an economist at Dresdner Kleinwort, said Spain was in danger of a serious crisis. “House prices may fall, but what is even worse is that the corporate sector’s deficit has grown so large that it needs to find financing equivalent to 10pc of GDP every quarter (cada trimestre) just to stand still,” he said.

“In an environment of easy credit and low rates, these excesses are not an issue, but it can quickly unravel as the mood changes. The problem is that a country inside EMU can’t get itself out once it reaches tipping point: it can’t cut interest rates or let the currency fall.”

While the extreme levels of household debt in Spain are similar to those in Britain, the abilities of the two countries to act in a crisis are quite different. Spain may face a replay of Britain’s ERM crisis in 1992, but this time without the safety valve of easy exit.
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Listado bancos en quiebra Crisis Subprime

Nunca TANTOS debieron TANTO a tan POCOS

Última edición por Tupper; 20-sep-2007 a las 11:00
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Antiguo 20-sep-2007, 11:06
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“Spain’s mid-cap banks have some of Europe’s lowest core capital ratios (6.12pc) and the highest loan-to-deposit ratios (182pc).

Es esta ratio de cobertura (préstamos/depósitos) lo que indica la necesidad de financiación externa de los bancos y cajas.

Y la marca de Caín para su exclusión del acceso a crédito externo (interbancario) y demás.
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Antiguo 20-sep-2007, 11:09
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Tremendo!

Pero como pueden tener tanta cara nuestros politicos? Los ingleses deben flipar en colores, aunque ellos tambien un poco tontitos si que son, cuando vean como se hunde el valor de sus propiedades done han metido los ahorros de su jubilacion...

En fin, si continuan asi un dia de estos a nuestros politicos se les va a acabar la credibilidad y veremos quien aprovecha el vacio... veo muchas trubulencias acechando:
- Aumento de las tensiones separatistas (quien va a querer continuar perteneciendo a un pais que es un barco a la deriva?)
- Delincuencia y violencia en las calles causadas por masas de immigrantes sin trabajo y deudas. Estos no se andan con tapujos y podriamos revivir escenas como las de los anyos 30 en Barcelona con la CNT-FAI controlando la calle pero mucho mas graves dado el origen islamico de muchos de ellos
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Antiguo 20-sep-2007, 11:13
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Y no es por nada, pero Northern Rock la petó precisamente porque su ratio préstamos/depósitos era así de malo.

Pero no, en S-pain (dolor) esto no ocurrirá porque lo dice Taguas. "We are the champions (in debt)".

Seguro que a la CAM se le ha atragantado el desayuno con lo de Llanera.

Rien va plus. Hagan juego señores, ¿ quién será el siguiente ?
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Listado bancos en quiebra Crisis Subprime

Nunca TANTOS debieron TANTO a tan POCOS

Última edición por Tupper; 20-sep-2007 a las 11:15
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Antiguo 27-sep-2007, 03:58
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Saltó Northern pero ¿por qué?
Qué puede hacer saltar a una cajita?

Que los promotores sin haber vendido el stock emprendan otra cosa a crédito como el cuento de la lechera, ...y de golpe deja de venderse al ritmo esperado por cajita y por promotor, ...por que los compradores que se podían endeudar a los precios actuales, ya lo han hecho, suban o no los tipos.

El problema es que la noticia de un promotor que hace saltar una cajita, inunda de inseguridad a todas las demás cajitas. Y si una de las cajitas corta el crédito a un promotor a media obra, todas las demás cajitas con contrato con ese promotor se pueden resentir para cobrar puntualmente los retornos esperados con puntualidad.


September 27, 2007
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/to...cle2540172.ece

Barratt’s sales walloped by credit crunch
James Rossiter
The credit crunch and the crisis at Northern Rock hit the housing sector yesterday as Barratt Developments, Britain’s largest housebuilder, revealed a slump in sales of 10 per cent over the past two weeks.

Barratt blamed the sharp fall in September sales on a crisis in consumer confidence as potential homebuyers were spooked by the queues outside the country’s fifth-largest mortgage lender.

Mark Clare, Barratt’s chief executive, stopped short of predicting a slump in house prices. But he admitted that it was not clear how quickly the market would return to normal. He warned shareholders to assume that there would be “downward pressure” on the number of properties it sells in the short term.

Barratt is the first of Britain’s housebuilders to go public on a sales fallout from the collapse of Northern Rock. Barratt built about one out of every ten new homes sold last year.

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The Telegraph: What happens... ...when Spanish banks start coming clean on the true scale of their propertylosses...?
22/11/2010

A pesar del cúmulo de incidencias, a favor de prorrogar la vida de nucleares obsoletas: 334. En contra: 10
CENSURADO DE NUEVO 16/03/2011



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Dos Reinos y dos Republicas Bananeras.

Northern Rock crisis made UK look like a 'banana republic', says top business boss
By ALEX BRUMMER -
Last updated at 00:46am on 27th September 2007

The run on the Northern Rock has made Britain look like a 'banana republic', the boss of the CBI said last night in a ferocious attack on the handling of the credit crisis.

Richard Lambert said the system of banking regulation had 'failed its first big test.'

His comments are certain to be seen as a direct assault on Gordon Brown and Ed Balls, now the Children, Schools and Families Secretary, who set up the present apparatus for dealing with financial crises while at the Treasury soon after Labour took power in 1997.

Mr Lambert told a Confederation of British Industry audience in the North-East - the heartland of Northern Rock - that a run on a bank was what you would expect in a 'banana republic'.

He said that it should have happened in a 'mature and prosperous country like the UK is almost unimaginable'.

His outspoken views reflect those being heard privately from bankers in the City of London on a daily basis.

Mr Lambert is the most senior figure in British business to break ranks and take on the Governyoument and Bank of England over its handling of the fiasco.

His extraordinary attack contrasts with the virtual silence of the Conservatives, who have been fearful of being accused by the Prime Minister of making the credit crunch worse.

There are strong signs that the credit crisis, exacerbated by the run at Northern Rock, is already causing serious problems for British industry.

The Bank of England's quarterly credit survey issued yesterday notes that companies seeking loans are already having to pay a higher rate of interest, larger fees and face greater demands for security.

Unsecured personal borrowing is also becoming more difficult, while housebuilder Barrett fears a collapse in new home sales.

In his speech, Mr Lambert contrasted Britain's bumbling with the approach in the U.S. and Europe.

"Other institutions around the world have been buffeted around in rough weather. Few of them have been holed."

He lambasted Mervyn King, the Governor of the Bank of England, for the excuses he made when he appeared before the Commons Treasury Select Committee last week.

"It's not enough for the Governor to say that the main difficulties in fixing the problem had been created by the complexity of company law," Mr Lambert said.

"You don't wait for the cinema to catch fire before check out whether the fire precautions are going to work."

While he accepted that Northern Rock had to take 'full responsibility for its business model' - under which it relied on the wholesale markets for deposits - this had made it vulnerable to the 'perfect storm which has blown through the world's financial markets since midsummer'.

Mr Lambert's outburst is particularly significant since before taking the CBI job he had worked in the Bank of England as a member of interest rate setting Monetary Policy Committee.

It is highly unusual for a former Bank policymaker to turn on the institutions with which he previously worked.

As Chancellor, Gordon Brown established the so-called 'tripartite' system of banking regulation in the summer of 1997.

The move almost forced the resignation of the then Governor of the Bank of England Eddie George.

Under this system the Financial Services Authority is responsible for ensuring banks are run responsibly, the Bank of England is in charge of financial stability and the Treasury has the power to authorise the use of taxpayers' funds for bail-outs such as the one at Northern Rock.

"For whatever reason, this tripartite system has failed to deliver the goods," Mr Lambert warned.

"Perhaps there are just too many conflicts inherent in the system where three different institutions - with three different priorities - have come together to tackle a fastmoving crisis."

He said the Government now had two choices.

It could underwrite bank savings, 'which would generate heavy-handed regulation', or return to a world where 'free market forces operate'.

At the Bank of England yesterday the leading banks rejected an offer of £10billion in emergency loans for the next three months.

The cost of the loans, at a penalty rate of 6.75 per cent, was seen as too high.

But, just as seriously, the banks have become concerned that if information about their borrowing from the Bank of England were to leak they could suffer damage to their reputations.

This could lead to a repeat of the terrible scenes seen at Northern Rock branches and on the stock market a week ago.

__________________



The Telegraph: What happens... ...when Spanish banks start coming clean on the true scale of their propertylosses...?
22/11/2010

A pesar del cúmulo de incidencias, a favor de prorrogar la vida de nucleares obsoletas: 334. En contra: 10
CENSURADO DE NUEVO 16/03/2011



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