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  #1  
Antiguo 13-sep-2007, 17:45
Joaquín Tillizos Joaquín Tillizos está desconectado
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This Stock Market Could Collapse
By Tom Dyson

A friend is looking for work in London's financial industry…

"My timing is bad," he told me on the phone. "Most of the big banks have hiring freezes at the moment, so I haven't had much luck. A strange thing happened last month though..."

"I used to work at Barclays Capital. Three weeks ago, I got a call out of the blue from one of my old bosses. He said his team is financing a new subprime lending business in Madrid, and he wanted me to apply for the COO position."

"I was amazed that they came looking for me... especially in this environment. So I went to a couple of interviews and everything seemed to be going pretty well. They asked me to come in for one final meeting... they said they wanted to offer me the job and this final meeting was just a formality. Anyway, as I'm walking to the train station, I get a phone call. It's my old boss. He tells me Barclays have pulled their financing and the whole gig is off."


Spain has the largest property bubble in the world. Since 1996, Spanish median house prices, after adjusting for inflation, have risen 130%. That's the third-largest increase among OECD economies – the so-called "developed" economies. (Ireland and Britain are No. 1 and 2, respectively). However, since 2000, Spanish house prices have doubled. That's more than any other country in the western hemisphere... even Ireland or the U.K.

Not only are prices extremely high... they've become totally unaffordable. The house price-to-income ratio is one measure this. In Spain, the ratio is more than seven. In other words, on average, in Spain, people's houses are worth seven times their annual pre-tax income.

Compare this to the U.S., where the median nation household income for 2006 was $48,201, and the median house price was $212,000... a ratio of 4:5.

The supply of houses in Spain has also gone crazy. Last year, 800,000 houses were under construction in Spain... that's more than in Italy, Germany, and France combined... and just less than half the houses under construction in the U.S. (The U.S. population is six times bigger than Spain's.)

In the U.S., the construction industry makes up 8% of the total labor force. In Spain, 13% of the labor force works in construction and construction investment measures 18% of Spanish GDP, up from 11% in 1998.

In America, when the consumer gets into trouble, the Fed simply cuts interest rates and stimulates the economy with cheap cash. Spain can't do this. The European bureaucrats in Brussels control Spanish interest rates. Rates are set mainly to German and French considerations. This is why Spanish interest rates fell from 12% in 1999, when they still used the peseta as the official currency, to 2% in 2005, under the European Central Bank and the euro currency.

Now, European interest rates are rising. They're up to 4% from 2% 18 months ago.

In America, many people think the huge number of adjustable-rate mortgages issued by the subprime lenders over the past few years could bring down the consumer. But in the U.S., only 50% of mortgages come with adjustable rates. In Spain, 90% of mortgages are issued with adjustable rates. So the Spanish consumer is much more sensitive to rate hikes than the American consumer.

In sum, I think the Spanish economy is in big trouble. And because the Spanish central bank has no power to cut interest rates, I think house prices in Spain and the Spanish stock market are going to experience heavy falls.

I first voiced this opinion on June 5, 2007." At the time, the Spanish stock index – the IBEX35 – was trading above 15,300. It's now at 13,900... a 10% decline in three months.

My friend confirms that bankers are finally pulling money out of Spain's housing market, I suspect the next leg down is imminent...


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  #2  
Antiguo 13-sep-2007, 18:09
pocayo pocayo está desconectado
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También de Tom Dyson

link http://www.dailywealth.com/archive/2...007_jun_05.asp

Spain Is in Big Trouble
By Tom Dyson
June 5, 2007

In the last two months, Spain has dumped 80 tons of gold onto world markets. It has also flogged huge quantities of U.S. Treasuries, British gilts, and other similar reserve investments at a similar rate.

Why?

According to an article in London's Daily Telegraph, the Spanish government is running out of money. The Banco de Espana now has less than $17 billion in foreign currency and gold reserves left. This is enough for just 12 days of imports.

The euro is the problem. European interest-rate policy applies to every country that uses the euro as its currency. Problem is, the European countries are all different and their economies move at totally different speeds. Interest rates are the politicians' most important tool for managing the economy. By joining the euro, you're giving up that power.
An example: In the early 2000s, Ireland was struggling with inflation but had to accept interest-rate cuts because – at the same time – Germany was fighting a recession.
Interest rates are set to German considerations. Germany is the largest economy in Europe, and the euro is basically just a new name for the mark. Look at the chart we call the "Euro Convergence Trade." It shows how bond yields in Spain, Italy, Poland, and Greece all converged on German rates when they joined the euro.

The Convergence Trade

Interest rates fall dramatically as soon as it's clear
you're giving up your currency and joining the euro



Anyway, Spain has a notorious problem with inflation. And German interest rates weren't appropriate. You guessed it, the ultra-low rates of the last three years have made the Spanish economy overheat. It's a bit like forcing the Mexicans to use the Fed's interest rate policy. Imagine how bad inflation would be in Mexico right now after two years of interest rates at 1%!

The results are amazing. For one, Spain has the largest current account deficit in the industrial world after the United States. This is astonishing for a country with only 40 million people and that until recently was still considered a third-world country. Spain's current account deficit is now 10% of GDP. Household debt has risen to 133% of disposable income... the highest level in the world. (The U.S. ratio has just reached 110%, its own personal best.)

Second, Spain has the largest property bubble in the world. More than 800,000 homes were built last year in Spain, beating France, Germany, and Italy combined. House prices have risen 270% over the past decade. A real bubble in housing construction formed last year. One builder – called Astroc – listed in June 2006. It's stock rose tenfold in the last nine months. Construction now represents 16% of total Spanish GDP.

Now the interest-rate problem is hurting Spain again – but this time its in the opposite direction. You see, the Germans have decided to raise interest rates on the euro. They've risen seven times since December 2005 to 3.75%.

"Spanish housing is about to implode," says Charles Dumas, chief economist at Lombard Street Research.

In Spain, 96% of mortgages use floating rates, but in Germany, most people have fixed-rate mortgages. In other words, the Germans are causing a property crash in Spain.

On April 25, a panic swept through the construction sector of the Spanish stock market. Spain's biggest property group, Sacyr, fell 8.15%, while developers Colonial and Inmocaral plunged more than 11%. And Astroc? Its stock crashed 60%.

What does it all mean? Big trouble for Spain, I think. If the property market goes into a tailspin, it'll lead to a banking crisis and a recession. But the Spanish authorities won't have any power to deal with it as their policy is tied to the euro. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank won't help either. It's forbidden from bailing out member states.

Bernard Connolly, global strategist for Banque AIG and former head of economic research for the European Commission, says, "Spain is going to face the very direst of economic circumstances: a cycle of recession, deflation, and widespread private sector default – a depression in fact. This stock market slide is not just a 'correction'. It has a very, very, long way to go."

You could short sell the Spanish stock market... using the Spain ETF. The Spanish stock market will struggle when the higher European interest rates begin to kick in to those adjustable rate mortgages.

Buy gold is my second suggestion. To me, Spain's problems are the first signs of cracks in the euro's flawed design. Apparently, Greece and Portugal have seen a drop in reserves of foreign currencies just like Spain's. Greece and Portugal also have historical problems with inflation and overheating. Maybe they'll follow Spain down the hole, too? Either way, a huge euro-fiasco can only strengthen gold's case.
Good investing,
Tom



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  #3  
Antiguo 13-sep-2007, 18:25
ronald29780 ronald29780 está desconectado
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Esto es el resultado comparando la realidad pura y dura del mercado y el sueño nuncabajista.


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  #4  
Antiguo 13-sep-2007, 18:27
lolo lolo está desconectado
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Wow! that hurts.

"Estava considerada hasta hace poco tercer mundista".

"Comenta que solo Alemania y Francia cuentan para el BCE".

"Compara España - Europa con Méjico - EEUU".

Cómo Zapatero lea este artículo, el señor Tom Dyson las va a pasar canutas


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  #5  
Antiguo 13-sep-2007, 18:42
Franze
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Hoy he visto las estadisticas de las rentas per capita y las diferencias con Europa son pequeñas, no entiendo nada!.
El articulo es interesante, pero como esta en inglés, dudo que los españoles lo lean. Saludos


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  #6  
Antiguo 13-sep-2007, 19:31
El paleto El paleto está desconectado
Excelentísimo, ilustrísimo y grandísimo miembro de élite de los gurús burbujistas
 
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Te pido permiso para poner este párrafo en el hilo de mi amigo...el pepito.

"The supply of houses in Spain has also gone crazy. Last year, 800,000 houses were under construction in Spain... that's more than in Italy, Germany, and France combined... and just less than half the houses under construction in the U.S. (The U.S. population is six times bigger than Spain's.)"


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  #7  
Antiguo 13-sep-2007, 20:09
JBRS3 JBRS3 está desconectado
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Pero no estabamos en la Champions League, bien clasificados y metiendo mas goles que ninguno??

Seguro que eres un facha, meterte con nuestro presi. ¿Es que no has oído a Blanco? ¡Que Alemania y Francia desearían estar como nosotros!


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  #8  
Antiguo 13-sep-2007, 20:30
unvistazo.com unvistazo.com está desconectado
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Es duro pero nos vamos a la mierda!!!!!! se puede decir más alto, se puede decir en español, pero NO SE PUEDE DECIR MÁS CLARO


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