BCE adjudica subasta semanal a tipo de interés marginal del 3,82%


Fráncfort (Alemania), 29 may (EFECOM).- El Banco Central Europeo (BCE) adjudicó hoy la subasta semanal para la inyección de liquidez en la eurozona a un tipo de interés marginal del 3,82%, por tercera semana consecutiva.

Según informó hoy el BCE, la cantidad adjudicada fue de 284.500 millones de euros (384.075 millones de dólares) y en la operación participaron 331 entidades, que pujaron entre el 3,75 y el 3,87%, con una media ponderada de adjudicación del 3,83%.

El vencimiento de esta operación se fijó para el 6 de junio y la cantidad pujada por las entidades fue de 360.182 millones de euros (486.245 millones de dólares).

El consejo de gobierno del BCE subirá la próxima semana los tipos de interés en 25 puntos básicos, hasta el 4%, para hacer frente a las presiones inflacionistas en la eurozona, según los pronósticos de los expertos.

El miembro del órgano ejecutivo del banco europeo y presidente del Bundesbank alemán (central), Axel Weber, señaló hoy en una entrevista con el diario "Financial Times Deutschland" que, si es necesario para mantener bajo control la inflación, las tasas deben "ir hacia un terreno que podría definirse como restrictivo". EFECOM
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ECB signals end to use of 'code words'

The European Central Bank will overhaul its communication strategy and stop using "code words" to signal interest rate changes when the current tightening cycle ends, according to a leading member of its governing council.

Axel Weber, Germany's Bundesbank president, indicated in an interview with the Financial Times that the ECB would drop the use of phrases such as "strong vigilance" - used to indicate that borrowing costs would rise in one month - and hinted he had become frustrated at their use.


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Central bank communication policy is the subject of worldwide debate. However, Mr Weber made it clear that the ECB would not follow the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England in releasing minutes of its interest-rate setting meetings. The ECB should instead emphasise "medium-term" guidance on how it might react in different economic circumstances.

"One could actually say that publishing minutes is old-fashioned because it is not real-time transparency, as the point of time when you take a decision." Once a parliament or government had taken a decision, "it is publicly announced and justified. I'm quite pleased that we don't rely on delayed minutes but communicate in real time."

Publishing minutes had "adverse effects" because they moved financial markets weeks after the actual event, the Bundesbank president said. "This is undesirable. It should be avoided."

The ECB believes its communication strategy, which includes an hour-long press conference immediately after its monthly interest rate-setting governing council meetings, has increased its predictability and thus enhanced the effectiveness of monetary policy. The press conference starts with an extensive statement by Jean-Claude Trichet, ECB president, setting out the council's latest thinking.

But in the latest interest rate-tightening phase, which started in December 2005, attention focused increasingly on just one or two phrases that, in effect, became a traffic light system for signalling a rate rise.

While Mr Weber admitted that the use of "key words" might help in a "normalisation" phase - bringing interest rates up to a level in line with the pace of economic growth - "towards the end of such a period it will become more difficult to use them and therefore I think that those words will at some point naturally disappear from statements".

The ECB had signalled "that now the degree of data dependence has increased in our monthly judgment of all incoming information".

Mr Weber, a former academic economist who has headed the Bundesbank for three years, is considered among the more hawkish members of the ECB's governing council and one of the most intellectually rigorous.

In the interview, he argued that code words, "cannot replace a deeper analysis of economic and monetary developments . . . What is more important for monetary policy is to give some medium-term orientation on how certain information that comes in is processed". For ordinary people or politicians, code words were "like using a foreign language". He said: "Some players in the market may need such code words. It is like a broad hint." But the use of plainer language was preferable.

"When I talk to market people and to the general public, code words are probably the least helpful part of the communication . . . In an economic environment with conflicting signals, it helps to lay out and communicate the broad-based analysis from which we draw our conclusions."

Mr Weber suggested the ECB had some way to go in the current interest rate- raising cycle. Financial markets generally do not see the expected quarter-percentage point rise, to 4 per cent, in the ECB's main rate in June to be the last in the cycle.

The ECB did not yet see interest rates as "appropriate" or in line with price stability. "What is pretty clear at the moment is that we are in a stronger than previously expected recovery."

The ECB might even have to slam on the brakes to damp price pressures. "If necessary we also have to move into a territory that is portrayed as being restrictive, if that is needed to control inflation."

There were the "first indications" of capacity constraints in parts of the eurozone's economy, which has outpaced the US for four consecutive quarters, and domestic pressures generally were replacing external factors as "inflation risks" for the eurozone.

The eurozone was growing faster that its "potential" growth rate - the pace at which an economy can expand without creating excessive inflationary pressures, he said. Inflationary dangers were being signalled by "the medium-to-long-term analysis of liquidity and monetary developments".

"The current cycle of interest rate hikes has not reached its end."

Pues yo ya estoy viendo los tipos de interés al 5%, como en los EEUU.

Toma ya! Para los que decían que éramos unos ilusos!


Aquí veo mucho pero que mucho dolor...

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Normal que diga eso siendo presidente del Bundesbank, es lo que le conviene a la economía alemana. Pero el BCE tiene que tomar decisiones para toda la zona euro y poner tipos restrictivos (7% o más) no creo que sea conveniente en general. Y para España mejor ni hablar...

Lllegamos al 7% , y directamente estamos ante un cataclismo de calibre historico.

Pisos regalados con las pegatinas de los Phoskitos,manifestaciones en la calle......el no va mas,demos tiempo al tiempo.


Un saludo

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cuando lleguen al 5%, veo hordas de pepitos manifestandose en la calle.

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78 % de capital adjudicado respecto al pujado por las entidades. Habrá que seguir esta relación para ver si el BCE sigue intentando meterle mano a la M3. Y también todo lo relacionado con los fondos de cobertura y de capital riesgo. Cada vez se escuchan más (aunque sin llegar al grito) las voces desde dentro del propio establishment financiero pidiendo "más regulación".

Si no varian mucho estos aspectos, creo que a finales del próximo año el tipo del euro puede llegar al 5%. Lo que representaría eso en nuestro país puede resumirse fácilmente: el horror...el horror....

queremos ver esas caras de sufrimiento... muahaaahahahaaa muaaahhahaha

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Creo recordar q el euribor ya estuvo en un 5.35 hace unos años... asi q tampoco es una locura q vuelva a estarlo.

No confundir euribor (hoy 4.44) con precio del dinero en la eurozona (actualmente 3.75)

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FECOM

¿Restrictivo sería a partir del 5%?. Con lo sensibles que son, especialmente en España, los precios inmobiliarios a los tipos de interés el efecto de semejante subida será enorme.