Burbuja.info - Foro de economía > > > Dato de viviendas USA a 26/03/2007 16.00
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  #11  
Antiguo 26-mar-2007, 16:45
Crash Crash está desconectado
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Parece que el mercado mira más la nota negativa del descenso de ventas en vez del aumento de precios:



Al menos de momento, claro.


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  #12  
Antiguo 26-mar-2007, 16:53
El paleto El paleto esta en línea ahora
Excelentísimo, ilustrísimo y grandísimo miembro de élite de los gurús burbujistas
 
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Diculpa crash...no había visto el hilo. Yo he puesto el artículo de Bloomberg pero ha sido más tarde...

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...pIA&refer=home


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  #13  
Antiguo 26-mar-2007, 17:01
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Iniciado por El paleto
Diculpa crash...no había visto el hilo. Yo he puesto el artículo de Bloomberg pero ha sido más tarde...

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...pIA&refer=home

Buen artículo, gracias.

New-home sales in the U.S. unexpectedly fell in February to the lowest level in almost seven years, dimming prospects for a quick revival in housing.

Cold weather and concern that a glut of unsold homes will further depress prices may have deterred homebuyers, economists said.

El mal tiempo, me suenan a las excusas que ha dicho ex-burbujista en otro hilo que usamos los "burbujistas": si hay carteles, porque no se vende, si no hay... ahora no se vende por el mal tiempo, claro, si está nublado me quedo en casa jugando a la play 3, si hace sol, salgo a comprarme una casa o dos.

Toll Brothers Inc. Chief Executive Officer Robert Toll said the number of customers canceling orders may be starting to abate. Still, Toll said he couldn't predict when the housing recovery would begin.

Lo dicho, si Toll Brothers reconoce que no sabe cuando va a empezar a recuperarse el mercado, es que puede que no hayamos visto lo peor, Mr. Bernanke.


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  #14  
Antiguo 26-mar-2007, 17:03
ex-burbujista ex-burbujista está desconectado
Grandísimo Gurú burbujista
 
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Lo he mirado ahora mismo en la wikipedia, y si son 6'7 veces mas payos que aquí. Creía que serían más (tengo que ver menos la tele) porque echando cuentas la extensión de gringolandia es 19,04 veces la de España.

pues imagina a como anda el suelo. jejeje con estados casi como España y la población de teruel.(exagerando un poco, pero poco) jeje.


Iniciado por Crash
Lee mi mensaje, lo he puesto. Supongo que lo has pasado a euros.

en euros seria menos, pongo la media que es la que usa en el mundo cristiano hispano. la tuya era la mediana.

Iniciado por Crash
Lo dicho, si Toll Brothers reconoce que no sabe cuando va a empezar a recuperarse el mercado, es que puede que no hayamos visto lo peor, Mr. Bernanke.

pero a esos no hay que tenerlos en cuenta, eso decia paleto cuando algo no le gusto, jeje.

Última edición por ex-burbujista; 26-mar-2007 a las 17:11


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  #15  
Antiguo 26-mar-2007, 17:05
El paleto El paleto esta en línea ahora
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Ya empiezan a publicarse artículos comentando la noticia. Os dejo el de Reuters. Lo bueno es que se venden menos viviendas que al principio de la burbuja, y pese a la sobreoferta bestial que tienen (mucho menor que la nuestra claro).


http://www.reuters.com/article/hotSt...33205520070326


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  #16  
Antiguo 26-mar-2007, 17:13
El paleto El paleto esta en línea ahora
Excelentísimo, ilustrísimo y grandísimo miembro de élite de los gurús burbujistas
 
Fecha de Ingreso: 29-septiembre-2006
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El pepito yanki parece que ha escarmentado, y no compra ni de coña. Las promociones se acumulan y la crisis hipotecaria amenaza con extenderse a los promotores.

Para colmo, el avispero persa, con el que tanto le gustaba jugar a Bush, parece que se revuelve, y el petróleo sube y sube....¿Tipos arriba más rápido que lo esperado?


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  #17  
Antiguo 26-mar-2007, 17:43
Eddy Eddy está desconectado
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Que manía tienen los yanquis con dar los datos sobre el mes pasado, cuando lo relevante es el mismo mes del año pasado:



La cosa no mejora.

¿Cómo va marzo?

Phoenix -23%

San Diego -20% y empeorando

En cuanto a precios, el sitio más burbujista sin duda es California (además se construye poco porque hay comparativamente más restricciones que en el restode USA). Pues bien, los precios están comenzando a ablandarse al fin:

Oceanside -11,3%


Una observación que quizá puede tener relevancia aquí. Contrariamente a lo que dicta el sentido común, las casas que empiezan a bajar de precio primero y más rápidamente son las "baratas" (porque cuando la economía se empieza a joder se nota más al fondo de la escalera, y por problemas para acceder a créditos /credit crunch para los aspirantes a pepitos).


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  #18  
Antiguo 26-mar-2007, 17:52
Crash Crash está desconectado
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en euros seria menos, pongo la media que es la que usa en el mundo cristiano hispano. la tuya era la mediana.

Cierto, estaba quotando el articulo de Bloomberg y no sabía de donde salian esos numero y he puesto cualquier cosa sin pensar. Que no se diga, lo he puesto al reves.


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  #19  
Antiguo 26-mar-2007, 18:11
nam nam está desconectado
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Que manía tienen los yanquis con dar los datos sobre el mes pasado, cuando lo relevante es el mismo mes del año pasado:
.

Los yanquis no, algunos yanquis...como la asociacion nacional de agentes inmobilarios (NAR)

por cierto el articulo original decia que la mediana del precio de vivienda nueva es $250k
"The median price of a new home sold in the month slipped 0.3 percent from a year earlier to $250,000, although that price reading was up from January"

pero la mediana de la vivienda usada es aun menor...ya que la mediana total de US en el ultimo trimeste del 2006 fue de $219k
http://money.cnn.com/2007/02/15/real...s_q4/index.htm

Otro articulo interesante:
http://money.cnn.com/2007/03/12/real...ion=2007031317


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  #20  
Antiguo 26-mar-2007, 18:12
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En portada de la CNN:

http://money.cnn.com/2007/03/26/news...ion=2007032612

New home sales: Slowest in 6 years
Pace of new home sales slumps 4% to lowest since August 2000 as glut of homes on the market rises, hurting prices.
By Chris Isidore, CNNMoney.com senior writer
March 26 2007: 12:00 PM EDT


NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Sales of new homes sank to the slowest pace in more than six years in February, with the government's latest reading on the battered real estate market showing the glut of homes on the market reached a 16-year high.

New homes sold at an annual pace of 848,000 in February, according to a Census Bureau report, down about 4 percent from the 882,000 rate in January, which itself was revised lower. The pace of sales tumbled 18.3 percent from February 2006, with all four regions of the country showing sharp declines.
New home sales in February fell to their lowest point since August 2000, just before the nation tipped into a recession.

Last month's pace was the slowest for new home sales since August 2000, just before the nation fell into a recession. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had forecast sales would rebound to an annual rate of 995,000.

The supply of new homes for sale on the market rose to an 8.1-month supply from 7.3 in January. It was the biggest supply by that measure since January 1991. It is now taking builders 5.2 months on average to sell a completed home, the longest wait since April 2001.

The report was particularly disappointing after the National Association of Realtors on Friday reported an unexpected jump in existing home sales in February - a report that gave a lift to stocks that day. But new home sales, while a smaller part of the housing market, are more of a leading indicator since they are booked when a sales contract is signed, not when the sale is closed, as is the case with existing home sales.

The poor new home sales numbers sent shivers through U.S. financial markets, sending major stock indexes broadly lower.

Monday's report suggests the housing market weakened further in February rather than stabilizing, as the Federal Reserve had projected as recently as its January meeting.

Subprime jitters

The report also raised fears that problems in the subprime mortgage sector first seen in February could further batter the struggling real estate market.

"I really do think the mortgage mess has pretty seriously shocked these markets," said David Seiders, the chief economist for the National Association of Home Builders. He said that when his trade group surveyed members earlier this month, a third were already reporting that changes in the mortgage market and lending standards were cutting into their sales.

"The uncertainties out there right now feel so profound," said Seiders. "We don't know how the tightening of standards will be felt. There's no way to measure it at this point. But there's no reason to think there's going to be a near-term rebound. The fundamentals of the market feel a lot weaker than they did at the beginning of the year."

Paul Kasriel, chief economist with Northern Trust in Chicago, agreed that subprime problems are going to cause the housing market to weaken before it shows any signs of improvement.

"This may reflect the problems caused by subprime," he said. "If it hasn't, it's going to affect sales going forward."

The slowdown in new home sales is also a concern because home building had been an important driver of economic growth during a building boom of 2004 and 2005.

Kasriel said he believes that the nation's economy is close to tipping into a recession due to the weakness in housing and problems in subprime lending. He said he believes the Fed will have to cut interest rates as soon as August, if not sooner, if the economy is to avoid a recession.
Price points

The weakness in housing sales and inventory is also seen in the reports price readings.

The median price of a new home sold in the month slipped 0.3 percent from a year earlier to $250,000, although that price reading was up from January.

While that decline is modest, it is in itself a concern because it likely understates the weakness in builders' pricing power. About three quarters of home builders are now reporting having to offer buyers incentives, such as covering closing costs or offering extra features in the home at no cost, in order to sell houses.

The February price decline followed a 0.7 percent drop in prices in January compared with a year earlier, and it was the third time in six months there has been a year-over-year price decline. It has been four years since there's been that kind of sustained weakness in prices.

As recently as late summer 2005, builders had been seeing double-digit percentage price increases.

The nation's leading home builders have been reporting tumbling sales and earnings from the slump in home sales and prices.
Florida foreclosures lead nation

On Thursday, KB Home (Charts), the No. 5 U.S. home builder, reported earnings plunged 84 percent and warned that higher foreclosures and tighter lending standards in the broader market could prolong weakness in the sector.

The CEO of D.R. Horton (Charts), the No. 2 U.S. builder by revenue, told an investor conference earlier this month that prices and new home sales are "going to suck" in 2007.

Earlier this month, New Jersey builder Hovnanian Enterprises (Charts) became the latest to report a loss following shortfalls at No. 1 home builder Lennar (Charts), No. 3 Pulte Homes (Charts) and No. 4 Centex (Charts).

Y al pie, un link a un artículo del 9 de marzo:

http://money.cnn.com/2007/03/09/news...ion=2007030915

Home prices: Don't expect quick rebound.

Home prices: Don't expect quick rebound
Home prices might not seem like they've dropped by much, but history, economists and forecasts suggest recovery is years away.
By Chris Isidore, CNNMoney.com senior writer
March 9 2007: 3:29 PM EST


NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Is the housing slump really that bad? After all, the S&P 500 last week fell more in a single day (3.5 percent) than home prices have fallen in the past year nationally (3.1 percent).

Still, it could be years before home prices regain the peaks seen before the current stumble - and even that's optimistic.

"I expect prices and sales to be modestly growing by June in most of the country," said David Lereah, the chief economist for the National Association of Realtors and perhaps the most bullish housing economist. "But we'll have to go into 2008, maybe even 2009 before we get even close to the peaks we saw in late 2005 or early 2006."

Two big factors could prolong the slump: the glut of homes on the market after a record building boom, and the fact that prices saw unprecedented gains during the white-hot real estate market of the first half of the decade.

Another worry is rising mortgage defaults, especially in the subprime sector, that could lead lenders and regulators to choke off the credit that fed the previous booms.

Celia Chen, director of housing economics for Moody's Economy.com, says she thinks it will take until 2009 for prices nationally to reach the peaks hit in 2005. Take inflation into account, she said, and a full recovery could take more than 7 years.

Hugh Moore, a partner with money manager Guerite Advisors who has been studying home prices, thinks over-supply is the biggest problem.

New homes completed and available for sale reached a record high of 175,000 in January, up 47 percent from a year earlier, according to the Census Bureau. The Realtors' trade group reports existing homes for sale was up 23 percent to 3.5 million.

The glut of new homes has hurt major U.S. builders. New Jersey builder Hovnanian Enterprises (Charts) became the latest to report a loss late Thursday, following operating losses at Pulte Home (Charts), KB Home (Charts) and Centex (Charts).

Don Tomnitz, CEO of No. 1 builder D.R. Horton (Charts), which has stayed in the black, said earlier this week he doesn't expect 2008 to be a great year and added, "'07 is going to suck."

Moore also points to the latest quarterly Census report showing a record 2.1 million empty homes on the market available for sale. That's a jump of 34 percent from a year earlier and the sixth straight quarter of record vacant homes.

"That's a huge run-up in the numbers, that says there's a very big overhang of inventory," Moore said.

He said the vacancies are either the result of investors looking to dump a home on an overbuilt market or someone who lived in the home who has moved despite not being able to find a buyer. Either way, he said, "the way the housing market has dealt with it in the past is a long period of price stagnation."

Moore and others also worry about the growing problems of defaults and delinquencies in mortgages to subprime borrowers.

The problems in the sector are causing lenders to change their standards at the same time that Federal regulators are also proposing a tightening of guidelines.

"People who a year ago could have purchased a house with a subprime mortgage aren't going to be able to purchase a home," said Paul Kasriel, chief economist for Northern Trust in Chicago. "And many people who have subprime mortgages that are now subject to rate reset will not be able to refinance. That means increased foreclosures and more inventory on a market that already has too much."

New Century Financial (Charts), the No. 2 subprime lender, which had previously revealed its auditor had doubts about its ability to continue in business, announced Thursday evening it had stopped taking applications for new mortgages because of trouble raising financing.

And No. 6 subprime lender Fremont General (Charts) said a week ago it would exit the subprime market because of the demands of regulators and market conditions.

One bright spot, according to David Stiff, chief economist of Fiserv Lending Solutions, is that so far there hasn't been a recession or a downturn in the job market, as there was with past housing slumps.

"All previous downturns were caused by economic weakness. This one came about through overbuilding," said Stiff. But even Stiff says that controlled for inflation it could take three to four years to see price gains.

But Dean Baker, the co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research and a leading proponent of the theory that there has been a bubble in housing prices, says that he believes it could take five to seven years before prices get back to their highs on a nominal basis.

If prices are adjusted for inflation, he thinks that prices will never recover their recent highs.

"If you look at historical data, home prices have stayed pretty much flat in real terms, maybe being a few percentage points above inflation or income," he said. "That's why the run-up in prices the past eight years was so peculiar. And the run-up is what created the bubble."



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