Ojito al email que han recibido en "MISH'S Global Economic Trend Analysis".

Hello Mish!

I am an economist from Slovenia (I have written you before about social unrest in Slovenia). I just want to point out few facts about Slovenia.

1. Slovenian debt to GDP ratio has doubled since 2009 (one of highest growing on the planet)
2. Our banking system is on the brink of collapse. Biggest bank (Nova Ljubljanska Banka - NLB) is owned by the government and almost all the money it has lent is sub-prime (much worse than in US up to 2007/08) or it was lent politically to chosen people who now can't pay the debt back. NLB has 15% bad loans (payments being late more than 90-day) and the number is getting higher.
3. Our housing market is frozen. Prices are not falling because no one is buying or selling. Most of the construction companies are bankrupt and they owe lots of money to banks. (percentage of loans that payments are late in construction sector is mind boggling 25%! - and is even growing!)
4. Government has recapitalized NLB with 250 million €. It will probably do it again with 400 million. I have calculated that if the bank was for sale it would be sold for no more than 400 million €! So taxpayers have already 250M and will pay another 400M for what? For saving some banker's ass because of his bad decisions? (And they call the bank "Slovenian silver"!)
5. There is no interest in Slovenia to leave EU. Moreover, it may be better for incompetent bureaucrats from EU to run the monetary system because things would be much worse if run by incompetent Slovenian bureaucrats.
6. Slovenian banks will need to borrow at least 5 billion € in 2012 and get about 1 billion € of fresh capital. Do you know someone who will give them the money? I truly hope it will not be the taxpayer.
7. When the banks start selling real estate, the market will collapse 20-30% in a year or two. That will further deteriorate bank balance sheets and the problems will be much worse.
8. Our labor market is totally inflexible and unemployment rate is getting higher (currently at 11.5%)


So if someone says to you that Slovenia is healthy just tell him the facts. Slovenia is not healthy. It has a brain-tumor that is getting worse.

By the way, Bostjan Vasle is a great economist but he works for incapable government. When he says there is a possibility for recession, we know there is a 100% chance recession is coming. He doesn't say so directly out of fear the government will implement some Keynesian silliness or other crazy ideas.

Best regards from Slovenia!
Luka Gubo, frustrated with Slovenian government analyst and worried about banking system economist

Luka Gubo
Senior Analyst and Economist
Finančni trgi d.o.o.


Fuente:
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Slovenian Economist Emails "Our Banking System is on Brink of Collapse"; Housing Crash and Incompetent Bureaucrats Blamed

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¿Resumen en español de esa versión eslovena de "vamos a morir todos"?

La noticia es de marzo, pero si es cierto lo que dice en la carta, hay un banco belga que va a sufrir mucho....

"Slovenian bank NLB issues EUR 250m shares
07 March 2011, 17:24 CET
— filed under: Slovenia, company, NLB, banking

(LJUBLJANA) - Slovenia's largest bank Nova Ljubljanska Banka (NLB) announced Monday a share issue worth 250 million euros ($350 million) to meet the European Union's capital requirements.

The bank is trying to place 2.1 million shares at a price of 116 euros per share in two rounds.

In the first, open until March 21, shares will be available only for current investors while in the second, open between March 23 and March 30, shares will be available for other investors too.

Slovenia's government is the largest shareholder in NLB, controlling up to 48.6-percent of all shares followed by Belgium's KBC group, which owns 30.6 percent.

Slovenian state radio, quoting unofficial sources, reported that KBC was not planning to increase its stake in NLB.

The European Commission authorised on Monday a temporary emergency recapitalisation of NLB of up to 250 million euros.

The measure was approved for financial stability reasons, until the Commission reaches a final decision on a restructuring plan for NLB which must be submitted within six months, it said in a statement issued in Brussels.

NLB reported last month a net loss of 202.2 million euros ($276 million) in 2010, after a loss of 86.8 million euros in 2009.

Last July, NLB barely passed the EU's banking stress tests, which showed it needed to strengthen its capital base."

Slovenian bank NLB issues EUR 250m shares — EUbusiness - legal, business and economic news from Europe and the EU

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Vale que esto no sea forocoches...pero tampoco es un foro inglés. Ya os vale (y sé inglés a la perfección pero no veas la pereza).

Hay que reivindicar más el CASTELLANO.

Esto es totalmente cierto, no es que dé fe, pero el ser con el que duermo por las noches tiene acceso a las cuentas de Nova Ljubljanska Banka (cosas de la vida).

De todas formas, Eslovenia, aparte de estar petada ahora de radiación, no se puede comparar con España o los PIGS. Su endeudamiento no ha sido tan masivo y a niveles nominales son sólo 2 millones de personas, rescatables fácilmente. Además, Eslovenia es un país industrial y tiene capacidad de exportación, no es un agujero negro como Grecia.

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Pues a ver si peta de una puta vez. Llevo oyendo lo de la quiebra del sistema bancario dos años, cada fin de semana está a punto de quebrar todo y de que todos muramos millones de veces, pero ahí seguimos, el tenderete sigue en pie y el cuento de las quiebras y el apocalipsis viene de puta madre para recortar derechos y servicios públicos

El borde debe de estar lleno...cada día hay alguien más.

¿Ese tipejo dice que Eslovenia está fatal? .... por favor, que se ponga a la cola que nosotros estábamos antes.

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Interesante la web de nuestro compañero esloveno

Primerjava slovenskih in avstrijskih delnic



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Share price indices (rebased) - Monthly data

Selection: Index, 2010=100

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