No tiene pinta de ser la n-ésima versión de "ahí viene el lobo". Parece que va en serio. Krugman y otros se hacen eco.

https://twistedeconotwist.wordpress.com/

Euro zone to split up in a matter of days - EuroIntelligence

A chilling article in EuroIntelligence this morning claims that the Euro zone will split up in a matter of days and that officials in France and Germany are preparing the way for this, what they call, biturcation.

(Un escalofriante artículo en Eurointelligence [un think tank] esta mañana afirma que la eurozona se va a desintegrar en cuestión de días y que los funcionarios en Francia y Alemania están preparando el camino para esto, que ellos llaman bifurcación)

EuroIntelligence is subscriber-based, so I can't link, but here is a quote:

(Eurointelligence es por suscripción, así que no puedo linkar, pero aquí va una cita)

"We have now reached the bifurcation point in the crisis where the eurozone will, within days, have to make a choice between debt monetisation, which is hardly feasible without a political commitment to a fiscal union, and a break-up. The latter will happen if no decision is taken.

(Hemos alcanzado el punto de bifurcación donde la Eurozona, en cuestión de días, tendrá que elegir entre monetización de la deuda, lo cual es difícilmente viable sin un acuerdo polítioc para una unión fiscal [esto es, imposible con el actual reparto de poder], y una ruptura. Lo último es lo que va a ocurrir si no se toma la primera decisión).

Reuters reports, citing unnamed EU sources, that French and German officials have been discussing a radical systems change, involving a smaller and more integrated eurozone."

(Reuters informa, citando fuentes anónimas de la UE, que los funcionarios alemanes y franceses han estado discutiendo un cambio radical de sistema, involucrando una eurozona más pequeña e integrada)

This would clearly be disastrous for Ireland, as our reliance on imports will be punishing if we have a worthless redenominated Punt. EuroIntelligence also claims that this ringfencing of the core will also lead to the collapse of the entire European financial system though.

(Esto sería claramente desastroso para Irlanda, dado que nuestra dependencia en las importanciones será castigada si volvemos a una neolibra sin valor. Eurointelligence también afirma que esta bunkerización del núcleo llevará igualmente al colapso todo el sistema financiero europeo entero)

Eurointelligence lleva clavando todo desde hace meses. Krugman también dice que la desintegración de la eurozona es lo más probable dada la imbecilidad manifiesta de los líderes políticos que llevan la voz cantante. Krugman no se caracteriza precismente por su originalidad.

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Si, lo mismo dicen del PSOE pero me da que después del 20n seguirán existiendo.

No, esto es en serio. Ni es un rumor ni es una amenaza para meter miedo.

The eurozone is now subject to an unconstrained panic attack from financial markets: Italian spreads of 5.6%, Spanish spreads over 4%; French spreads creeping to 1.5%; the market meltdown signifies the effective collapse of the notion of a leveraged EFSF and other technical quick fixes; Reuters reports that French and German officials have been discussing a break up of the eurozone, in combination with a much more integrated core; President Giorgio Napolitano bestows a life senatorship on Mario Monti, a clear expression of his preference for the next Italian government; Napolitano says a solution has to be found within days, not weeks; Robert Shimsley argues that technocrats are the not the solution for the problems in Italy and Greece, which are entirely political; Greece fell into total political confusion as a preliminary agreement on a new government collapsed in the last minute; Lucas Papademos is once again back in the picture, but demands that New Democracy is fully and openly committed to the process; the German constitutional court rules that the 5% German voting threshold for the European Parliament is unconstitutional; Germany's Bild calculates how much ordinary Germans are sacrificing to pay for the EU rescue programmes; Austria's AAA-rating is in doubt; the Swedish central bank government says the eurozone will survive as long as it emulates Sweden; Nicolas Barre says the ECB is now the last hope for the eurozone survival, and severely criticises German dogmatism; Nicolas Sarkozy, meanwhile, makes a spectacular comeback in the opinion polls.

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Que viene el lobo! (Repetir el ciclo x 3000)

Luego viene de verdad y nos pilla en enaguas.

Mi corazón esta débil y tengo el firme propósito de asustarme solo cuando vea el rio atascado de cadáveres.

No sé por qué pero no me daría ninguna pena que la UE petase.

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Pues no se asuste. Eso es un lujo del que hay que prescindir desde ya.


A mí no es que me dé pena o no pena. Pero sí me da que pensar si veo a la jerarquía tope de la tripulación del Titanic abriendo alegremente y con festividad todavía más vías de agua. Y como no quiero asustarme...

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No caerá esa breva.

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Miente, una vez más. Sí que lo han estado discutiendo.

Merkel rechaza los rumores sobre una escisión de la eurozona - Público.es

Merkel rechaza los rumores sobre una escisión de la eurozona
"Alemania sólo tiene un objetivo, estabilizar la eurozona tal y como es ahora", asegura la canciller alemana.

EFE Bruselas 10/11/2011 16:12 Actualizado: 10/11/2011 16:41

La canciller alemana, Angela Merkel, rechazó hoy los rumores sobre una posible escisión de la eurozona, que Berlín y París, según informaciones de prensa, estarían estudiando.

"Alemania sólo tiene un objetivo, estabilizar la eurozona tal y como es ahora", dijo Merkel al ser preguntada sobre una eventual salida de Italia del área del euro, en vista del encarecimiento de los intereses.

Previamente, un portavoz del Ministerio germano de Finanzas ya había rechazado las publicaciones de prensa que apuntaban a la posible construcción de una eurozona reducida, en torno a Alemania, Francia y los países del Benelux.

"Eso es totalmente falso", aseguró un portavoz del Ministerio alemán de Finanzas, al ser consultado sobre las informaciones periodísticas.

El Ministerio, en un comunicado, recordó que el 26 de octubre los jefes de Estado y de Gobierno de la UE pidieron al presidente de la Comisión Europea, José Manuel Durao Barroso, y al presidente del Eurogrupo, Jean-Claude Juncker, que elaborasen un informe con un plan para el fortalecimiento de la eurozona, incluidas posibles modificaciones en los tratados. "Todos los rumores que vayan más allá son falsos", señala la nota.
La UE, también lo descarta

La Unión Europea, desde diferentes instituciones, también ha descartado la posibilidad de crear una zona euro a dos velocidades. Tanto la Comisión como el Consejo de la Unión han rechazado que se pueda producir esta hipótesis, mientras que una destacada fuente comunitaria señaló a Efe que esa idea "no tiene ninguna posibilidad" de ser puesta en práctica.

La fuente consideró que las filtraciones han sido más "una forma de meter presión" a países como Italia para que aceleraren la puesta en marcha de medidas de disciplina fiscal.

"Es importante no aceptar divisiones en nuestra Unión, incluso si la zona euro puede y debe avanzar con una integración más profunda", recalcó hoy la portavoz de la CE, Pia Ahrenkilde.

Señaló que el Ejecutivo comunitario es consciente del debate actual sobre el futuro de Europa y sobre la velocidad en que pueden avanzar la UE y la zona euro, pero insistió en que la solución es una integración económica "más avanzada" de todos. También aseguró que la CE no tiene constancia de las conversaciones que supuestamente mantienen Francia y Alemania.

French, Germans explore idea of smaller euro zone | Reuters

(Reuters) - German and French officials have discussed plans for a radical overhaul of the European Union that would involve setting up a more integrated and potentially smaller euro zone, EU sources say.

"France and Germany have had intense consultations on this issue over the last months, at all levels," a senior EU official in Brussels told Reuters, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the discussions.

"We need to move very cautiously, but the truth is that we need to establish exactly the list of those who don't want to be part of the club and those who simply cannot be part," the official said.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy gave some flavour of his thinking during an address to students in the eastern French city of Strasbourg on Tuesday, when he said a two-speed Europe -- the euro zone moving ahead more rapidly than all 27 countries in the EU -- was the only model for the future.

The discussions among senior policymakers in Paris, Berlin and Brussels raised the possibility of one or more countries leaving the euro zone while the remaining core pushes on towards deeper economic integration, including on tax and fiscal policy.

The change has been discussed on an "intellectual" level but had not moved to operational or technical discussions, the EU official said. A French finance ministry s pokesman denied there was any project in the works to reduce the currency bloc's membership .

"There have been no conversations between French and German authorities at any level on decreasing the size of the euro zone," the spokesman said .

A radical overhaul of the European Union would be opposed by many members.

"This will unravel everything our forebears have painstakingly built up and repudiate all that they stood for in the past sixty years," one EU diplomat told Reuters."This will redraw the map geopolitically and give rise to new tensions. It could truly be the end of Europe as we know it."

In Berlin, European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso warned about the economic costs of any splits in the euro zone. Germany's gross domestic product could contract and its economy would shed one million jobs, he said in a speech.

Barroso said any push towards deeper economic policy integration should not come at the price of creating new divisions among EU members.

"There cannot be peace and prosperity in the North or in the West of Europe, if there is no peace and prosperity in the South or in the East," he said.

To an extent the taboo on a country leaving the 17-member currency bloc was already broken at the G20 summit in Cannes last week, when German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Sarkozy both effectively said that Greece might have to drop out if the euro zone's long-term stability was to be maintained.

But the latest discussions among European officials point to a more fundamental re-evaluation of the 12-year-old currency project -- including which countries and what policies are needed to keep it strong and stable -- before Europe's debt crisis manages to break it apart.

In large part the aim is to reshape the currency bloc along the lines it was originally intended; strong, economically integrated countries sharing a currency, before nations such as Greece managed to get in.

"In doing this exercise, we will be very serious on the criteria that will be used as a benchmark to integrate and share our economic policies," the senior EU official said.

One senior German government official said it was a case of pruning the euro zone to make it stronger.

"You'll still call it the euro, but it will be fewer countries," he said, without identifying those that would have to drop out.

"We won't be able to speak with one voice and make the tough decisions in the euro zone as it is today. You can't have one country, one vote," he said, referring to rules that have made decision-making complex and slow, exacerbating the crisis.

Speaking in Berlin, Merkel reiterated a call for changes to be made to the EU treaty -- the laws which govern the European Union -- saying the situation was now so unpleasant that a rapid breakthrough was needed.

From Germany's point of view, altering the EU treaty would be an opportunity to reinforce euro zone integration and could potentially open a window to make the mooted changes to its make-up.

EU officials have told Reuters treaty change will be formally discussed at a summit in Brussels on Dec. 9, with an 'intergovernmental conference', the process required to make alterations, potentially being convened in the new year, although multiple obstacles remain before such a step is taken.

ACCELERATION

While the two-speed Europe referred to by Sarkozy is already reality in many respects -- and a frustration for the likes of Poland, which hopes to join the euro zone -- the officials interviewed by Reuters spoke of a more formal process to create a two-tier structure and allow the smaller group to push on.

"This is something that has been in the air for some time, at least in high-level talks," said one EU diplomat. "The difference now is that some countries are moving forward very quickly ... The risk of a split, of a two-speed Europe, has never been so real."

In Sarkozy's vision, the euro zone would rapidly deepen its integration, including in sensitive areas such as corporate and personal taxation, while the remainder of the EU would be left as a "confederation", possibly expanding from 27 to 35 in the coming decade, with enlargement to the Balkans and beyond.

Within the euro zone, the critical need would be for core countries to coordinate their economic policies quickly so that defences could be erected against the sovereign debt crisis.

"Intellectually speaking, I can see it happening in two movements: some technical arrangements in the next weeks to strengthen the euro zone governance, and some more fundamental changes in the coming months," the senior EU official said.

But he cautioned: "Practically speaking, we all know that the crisis may deepen and that the picture can change radically from one day to another."

France and Germany see themselves as the backbone of the euro zone and frequently promote initiatives that other euro zone countries reject. The idea of a core, pared-down euro zone is likely to be strongly opposed by the Netherlands and possibly Austria, although both would be potential members.

"This sort of thinking is not the direction we want to go in. We want to keep the euro zone as it is," said a non Franco-German euro zone diplomat.

Britain, which is adamantly outside the euro zone, is also opposed to any moves that would create a two-speed Europe, or institutionalise a process even if it is already under way.

"We must move together. The greatest danger we face is division," Britain's deputy prime minister, Nick Clegg, said during a visit to Brussels on Wednesday.

(Additional reporting by Robin Emmott and Luke Baker in Brussels, writing by Luke Baker, editing by Angus MacSwan)

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for($i=0; $i<1000; $i++){
echo "Vamos a morir cienes y cienes de veces";
}

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