Aqiu adjunto un análisis del Boletin Europeo Global de Anticipación; Sus prediciones son extraordinariamente precisas y casi siempre se cumplen, su dirección es:

http://www.leap2020.eu/index.php?action=&=

La pena es que una parte de sus contenidos, los más importantes son solo para abonados, pero en la zona libre se encuentran análisis muy precisos.

Confidential letter of European think-tank LEAP / Europe 2020


As anticipated last January in GEAB N°11, the « fog of statistics » is now clearing and US economic trends appear clearly (retail sales at a standstill in January 2007, record high trade deficit in 2006, downward revision of US growth for 2006, Fed's confirmation of economic slowdown, serial defaults among mortgage lending organisations, continued collapse of US housing market,...). Therefore, according to LEAP/E2020, and contingent on the specific evolution of each component of the US economy, the month of April will account for the inflexion point of the impact phase of the global systemic crisis, that is to say the moment when all negative consequences of the crisis pile up exponentially. More precisely, April will be the time when negative trends will converge, transforming many « sectorial crises » into a generalised crisis, a « very great depression », involving all economic, financial, commercial and political players.

In April 2007, nine practical consequences of the unfolding crisis will converge:

1. Acceleration of the pace and size of bankruptcies among US financial organisations: from one per week today to one per day in April
2. Spectacular rise of US home foreclosures: 10 million Americans out on the street
3. Accelerating collapse of housing prices in the US: - 25%
4. Entry into recession of the US economy in April 2007
5. Precipitous rate cut by the US Federal Reserve
6. Growing importance of China-USA trade conflicts
7. China's shift out of US dollars / Yen carry trade reversal
8. Sudden drop of US dollar value against Euro, Yuan and Yen
9. Tumble of Sterling Pound

In this February issue of the GlobalEurope Anticipation Bulletin (on sub******ion), LEAP/E2020 details the nature and sequence of these developments meant for all concerned players (currency or financial market operators, investors, international traders, political and economic decisions-makers or analysts) to better anticipation events. Strategy is time mastery! In the present issue of GEAB, our teams endeavoured to build a device to overcome this quarter's accelerating developments.

In this public announcement, LEAP/E2020 describes one of these nine direct consequences otherwise detailed in GEAB N°12 (on sub******ion), i.e.:


Spectacular rise of US home foreclosures: 10 million Americans out on the street
In 2006, US foreclosures increased by 42% , directly affecting an average of 1 US household out of 92. In states such as Colorado, California, Ohio, or Texas, 1 household on 35 or 40 falls victim of foreclosure. In October through December 2006 in Ohio, 3.3% of homes and apartments were filed in foreclosure . The pace of foreclosures accelerates as the number of insolvent US households increases (cf. GEAB N°10 on the issue of insolvency): in 2006, over 1.2 million foreclosures affected 4 to 5 million US citizens (counting between 3 and 4 persons per household).



Level of foreclosures in the US in December 2006
According to LEAP/E2020, the year 2007 will register at least a doubling in the number of foreclosures (3) due to the surge of record high numbers of mortgage loan refinancing on the market (close to 2,000 billion USD). 2 to 3 million homes will probably be filed in foreclosure and about 10 million US citizens thrown out of their homes in the course of this year. All those who doubt whether the US actually entered a “very great depression” should pay a visit to field reality and observe the devastating effect of the housing and financial crisis for millions of Americans (4). Scores of blogs appeared on the web trying to review the on-going housing disaster and the stream of human tragedies (5). Taking into account that a US citizen has three months between initial default on interest repayment and actual foreclosure, LEAP/E2020 estimates that it is indeed in April that the second wave of foreclosures will hit the US market.

GEAB N°12 (on sub******ion)


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Notes:

(1) “Home foreclosures surge 42% in 2006”, CNN Money, 25/01/2007
(2) “Home foreclosures are highest in Ohio”, Beacon Journal, 11/01/2007
(3) “Foreclosures increase 19% in January”, United Business Media, 12/02/2007
(4) "Texas riddled by foreclosures", Austin Business Journal, 26/01/2007
(5) For instance, My Real Estate Money or Foreclosure Pulse.





In the same category:
Red Kite, Global Alpha, Goldman Sachs: First systemic failures in the financial system
GEAB Archives Offer - First semester 2006: GEAB's six first issues for 50 euros
Dollar crisis / Euro above 1.30 USD: A message from Franck Biancheri, Director of research at LEAP/E2020
French prospectivist, Pierre Gonod, analyses LEAP's work of anticipation

Deutsch | English | Français
GEAB N°12 - Contents
- Published on February 16, 2007 -
Global systemic crisis - April 2007: Inflexion point of the phase of impact / US economy enters recession

In this February issue, LEAP/E2020 details the nature and sequence of ongoing developments meant for all concerned players (currency or financial market operators, investors, international traders, political and economic decisions-makers or analysts) to better anticipate events. Strategy is time mastery! In the present issue of GEAB, our teams endeavoured to build a device to overcome this quarter's accelerating developments…
Read announcement
‘9-UP AND 9-DOWN’ – Eighteen key-trends for 2007: Nine issues will soar along the year – Nine issues will vanish by the end of the year

This list can help readers of GEAB to make the most of their time spent on reading the news. Helping you to reduce the time wasted reading articles about issues with minor impact on the course of events, and on the contrary inviting you to take more time on issues that will be at the centre of tomorrow's trends, such is the aim of this list of 18 up and down trends in 2007. Yen carry-trade, opposition between « new » and « old » EU member states, « war on terror », Russian president Vladimir Putin, Doha round, European Constitution, hedge funds, etc… Up or Down, what do you think?

muy interesante.
no lo conocia.
gracias.

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Tremendo!! Lo que pasó en Japón está pasando en los EEUU y después en España... La profecía va como la seda.

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Excelente aportación.

En 2006 ya hubo 1 millon de ejecuciones hipotecarias entre los megapepitos americanos.
The Times: Housing bubble is finally at bursting point

Mientras UK bate records de insolvencias jamás visto,
The Times: Housing bubble is finally at bursting point
el pasado enero de 2007 se ejecutaron 130,511 hipotecas en EEUU, 19% más que el mes anterior.
The Times: Housing bubble is finally at bursting point

Con niveles de descapitalizacion ciudadana, que no se habían visto en 74 años, durante la depresión del 33.
The Times: Housing bubble is finally at bursting point

A 130.000 por mes, me salían 1.560.000 ejecuciones como mínimo para 2007, pero la tendencia es ascendente. Los del enlace que facilita Juan, pronostican de 2 a 3 millones de ejecuciones para 2007. No está nada mal, megapepitos.

Gracias Juan por tu aportación. A falta de los 200 euros, nuestras selecciones son gratis, respecto al think tank ese, cuyos miembros no he sabido escudriñar quienes son ni qué pretenden, aunque de entrada ofrecen selecciones muy interesantes y que intentaré diseccionar.

Tampoco sé qué pretenden los que llenan el hilo de selecciones de prensa internacional que pretendía ir cultivando, de debates bizantinos sobre taxonomia racial sin venir a cuento. The Times: Housing bubble is finally at bursting point

¿Será que esos últimos enlaces los puso de los nervios, y por eso quieren destrozar el hilo?
http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=966
The Times: Housing bubble is finally at bursting point

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Subo este hilo para confrontarlo con el efecto diluyente de la noticia del confidencial que habla solo de un millon de embargos en 6 años.

Un millón de embargos en EEUU en los próximos seis años

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osea 10 millones de pepitos "patitacallistas"...eso son muchos problemas de home security para el gobierno federal, bueno nada se soluciona aumentando el presupuesto de la Guardia Nacional. y creando "puestos de trabajo" con alguna guerra externa y la necesidad de "contratistas".

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.
Muy interesante que a ex-burbu-bobojista le parezca interesante.
Las cosas están cambiando amigos.




p.d. del hilo del paleto:

Imágenes Adjuntas

americanosahorrancomodemoni.jpg (10,7 KB (Kilobytes), 980 visitas)

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Esta aportación es excelente, felicidades Juan Español el artículo es impagable. Pocas veces, en un artículo, alguien se moja de esa manera, además, dando fechas concretas. Veremos si vuelven a acertar.

brutal. Parecen las predicciones de Tochovista pero así en inglés y por otro medio da más miedo todavía

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La FED perd le contrôle de l'évolution des taux d'intérêts US et la crise commence à toucher la Chine et l'UE

- Quatre tendances à hauts risques à suivre d'ici Septembre 2007.

Written by LEAP/E2020
Friday, 15 June 2007
http://www.newropeans-magazine.org/i...5892&Itemid=39

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