Canadian credit rating agency DBRS has downgraded the Republic of Ireland's currency debt to A or "low", despite evidence that the country had started to restore its competitive edge and move towards a current account surplus.

Deeming the outlook for Ireland to be "negative", due partly to the continuing debt problems across the eurozone and the US creating the threat of a global double-dip recession, a DBRS statement said: "In spite of strong political commitment to fiscal consolidation and lower interest rates on official loans, the downgrade reflects weaker than expected growth prospects. The negative trend reflects our view that downside risks to Ireland's export-led recovery persist, particularly given heightened uncertainty over the economic outlook in the United States and Europe and ongoing turbulence in financial markets."

The report comes just a day after a comment article in The Financial Times, by academics David Vines and Max Watson, claimed that Ireland would not need to borrow from markets again until 2014 - at the earliest. The piece – headlined "Ireland's unexpected economic comeback" - suggested that Ireland was "swiftly restoring its competitive edge" and "moving rapidly towards a sizeable current account surplus – in a range of 3-4 per cent of gross domestic product".

Although admitting that the Irish economy was likely to return to growth this year, DBRS maintained that domestic demand would contract with deflationary pressures persisting throughout 2011. The rating agency said this was due to the weak labour market – employment having fallen 15 per cent since its 2007 peak. "Downward price pressures improve Ireland's cost competitiveness, but negatively affect nominal growth and make debt stabilisation more challenging," said a DBRS spokesman.

"As a highly open economy, Ireland's growth prospects largely depend on external demand. Strong export performance in 2010, and the first quarter of 2011, made a positive contribution to growth and partially offset the contraction in domestic demand. However, slower growth in the United States and Europe could dampen Ireland's prospects for recovery, potentially delaying debt stabilisation. The A (low) ratings for the Republic of Ireland are underpinned by the strong commitment of the newly elected government to reduce the fiscal deficit below 3 per cent of GDP by 2015. Deficit reduction measures amounted to €6bn (3.8 per cent of GDP) in 2011, and could total at as much as €4bn (2.5 per cent of GDP) in 2012."

Tax receipts and expenditures in the first half of 2011 were said to be broadly in line with forecasts from the Irish Department of Finance. And positive steps have also been taken to address financial stability concerns. Following the publication of bank stress tests in March, measures to restructure, deleverage and recapitalise the Irish banking system have proceeded on schedule – according to DBRS. In addition, the European Union-International Monetary Fund programme fully covered Ireland's financing needs through 2013, providing Ireland with over two years to stabilise its public finances, revealed DBRS.

The rating agency also applauded the recent lowering of interest rates on European Financial Stability Facility loans, suggesting it was "marginally positive for Ireland". According to the IMF, Irish exports increased by 6.3 per cent in 2010, and continued to perform well in 2011. The country's current account also shifted from a deficit of 5.6 per cent to a surplus of 0.5 per cent of GDP in 2010. But DBRS warned of further dangers ahead for the Republic. "The evolution of Ireland's ratings ultimately depends on the prospects for debt stabilisation," stated the rating agency. "If fiscal targets are achieved and there is clear evidence of economic recovery, the trend could be changed to stable. On the other hand, possible downward rating action could be triggered by fiscal slippage or a material worsening of Ireland's growth prospects."

Meanwhile, DBRS also confirmed that it had downgraded Spain's currency debt to AA – from "stable" to "negative". The move was said to reflect "the potentially adverse effects of the sharp rise in uncertainty in financial markets on economy-wide funding conditions and the increased risks to the growth outlook of the United States that could affect both Europe and Spain's export-based recovery".

Again, DBRS recognised the progress achieved to date in Spain - with a fiscal adjustment program "on track, the ongoing extensive reform of the savings bank sector and the narrowing of the current account deficit" – but warned against complacency when the world economy was so fragile. "As concerns over debt and fiscal deficits appear to continue in financial markets, Spain and Italy have come under renewed market stress, although reported European Central Bank purchases in secondary bond markets seem to have lowered yields significantly," said a DBRS spokesman.

"If these support measures by the ECB, or later by the EFSF, continue, it could ease recent market pressure on sovereign funding costs and on domestic financing conditions. However, the recent sharp rise in financial market uncertainty could have a negative impact on economy-wide funding conditions. Furthermore, increased downward risks to the US economic outlook could add downside risks to Spain's weak recovery given its reliance on exports. This, in turn, could potentially make the achievement of Spain's ambitious fiscal targets more difficult."

At the root of Spain's problems were said to be the country's residential property boom, a large unlisted savings banking sector - accounting for 40 per cent of banking assets and a weak labour market that performed poorly with losses of almost 11 per cent of employment since the peak in the second quarter of 2008. As a result, the unemployment rate has reached 20.9 per cent - the highest among all advanced economies.

Even so, Spain's current account balance narrowed from a deficit of 10 per cent of GDP in 2007 - to a deficit of 4.5 per cent of GDP in 2010, helping to reduce the trade deficit. But the contraction in construction employment has been fast and deep, accounting for 1.24 million of a total of 2.12 million jobs lost. For the first quarter of 2011, growth was 0.3 per cent above the previous quarter. Recent estimates place growth, in 2011, at a modest pace of 0.8 per cent - driven by exports. But DBRS said: "The depth of the recession suggests that many of the jobs lost were low productivity jobs, especially in construction. In spite of some progress in reforming labour market policies, structural unemployment is likely to have increased and, at this growth rate, it is expected that cyclical unemployment will fall slowly.

"President Rodriguez Zapatero has called early elections for November 20 and opinion polls give the opposition People's Party a substantial lead over the ruling Socialist Party. Regardless of the outcome, there is a widespread political consensus on the need for fiscal consolidation and DBRS expects that the firm commitment to the fiscal adjustment programme will continue. The trend could be changed from negative to stable if there is a material reduction of the downside risks to the growth outlook of advanced economies, alongside substantially more stable financial markets or if Spain's growth outlook improves. However, possible downward rating actions could be triggered by significant fiscal slippage, a worsening of Spain's growth prospects, or if access to funding were to deteriorate materially."

Iniciado por anduriña

Antes de nada bienvenido al foro. Para cualquier cosa que necesites aquí estamos.
Respondiendo a tu pregunta sí que es una agencia importante. Es canadiense y yo diría que ahora mismo es la cuarta más influyente. Sin ser del sector te diría que empieza a hacerse una reputación.

La calificación de España por lo que veo se ha mantenido aunque es cierto que ha sido puesta con perspectiva negativa.
Voy a copiar el texto de la noticia para que así no tengamos que seguir el enlace:

Iniciado por feldberg

Ireland and Spain downgraded by rating agency - Public Service Europe

No se si esta agencia canadiense es de las "grandes", supongo que no.
Un día antes en el Financial Times:

At the root of Spain's problems were said to be the country's residential property boom, a large unlisted savings banking sector - accounting for 40 per cent of banking assets and a weak labour market that performed poorly with losses of almost 11 per cent of employment since the peak in the second quarter of 2008. As a result, the unemployment rate has reached 20.9 per cent - the highest among all advanced economies.