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Antiguo 04-ene-2007, 18:40
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ECB to Raise Key Rate to 4.25% in 2007, UBS Says (Update2)

By Simon Kennedy

Jan. 4 (Bloomberg) -- The European Central Bank will increase its key interest rate three times this year to 4.25 percent, said economists at UBS AG, raising their forecast that the rate wouldn't reach that level until 2008.

``Recent data have shown that growth should be even more resilient than we previously expected, while the ECB could receive more information on upward risks for inflation,'' said Edward Teather, a London-based economist at UBS, in a note to clients.

The ECB last month lifted its benchmark rate to 3.5 percent, up from 2 percent a year earlier. ECB President Jean- Claude Trichet said in a Dec. 20 interview that the bank ``will do whatever is necessary to ensure price stability.''

The UBS forecast was higher than those of 16 banks polled last month by Bloomberg News. The median estimate of that survey was for the ECB to stop raising rates at 4 percent this year. The estimate also exceeds traders' expectations. Futures contracts suggest the rate won't reach 4 percent this year.

The yield on December rate contracts was 4.08 percent today. The contracts settle to the three-month interbank offered rate for the euro, which has averaged 16 basis points more than the ECB's benchmark rate since the currency's start in 1999.

Expansion in European service industries, the biggest part of the economy, unexpectedly slowed in December, a sign economic growth may have peaked. Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc's services index, which is based on a survey of purchasing managers by NTC Economics Ltd., fell to 57.2 from 57.6 in November. A reading above 50 indicates expansion. Economists expected the index to remain unchanged, the median of 24 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey showed.


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Antiguo 04-ene-2007, 18:44
RobinHood RobinHood está desconectado
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Que mal huele esto señores, el año podría terminar con el euribor rozando el 5%, y eso ya no sería tan sostenible para los que hicieron los cálculos en el 2 ante los juramentos de los bancos de que era imposible que subiese mucho el euribor....


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Antiguo 04-ene-2007, 18:47
no vendo ná no vendo ná está desconectado
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Iniciado por dafo
ECB to Raise Key Rate to 4.25% in 2007, UBS Says (Update2)

By Simon Kennedy

Jan. 4 (Bloomberg) -- The European Central Bank will increase its key interest rate three times this year to 4.25 percent, said economists at UBS AG, raising their forecast that the rate wouldn't reach that level until 2008.

``Recent data have shown that growth should be even more resilient than we previously expected, while the ECB could receive more information on upward risks for inflation,'' said Edward Teather, a London-based economist at UBS, in a note to clients.

The ECB last month lifted its benchmark rate to 3.5 percent, up from 2 percent a year earlier. ECB President Jean- Claude Trichet said in a Dec. 20 interview that the bank ``will do whatever is necessary to ensure price stability.''

The UBS forecast was higher than those of 16 banks polled last month by Bloomberg News. The median estimate of that survey was for the ECB to stop raising rates at 4 percent this year. The estimate also exceeds traders' expectations. Futures contracts suggest the rate won't reach 4 percent this year.

The yield on December rate contracts was 4.08 percent today. The contracts settle to the three-month interbank offered rate for the euro, which has averaged 16 basis points more than the ECB's benchmark rate since the currency's start in 1999.

Expansion in European service industries, the biggest part of the economy, unexpectedly slowed in December, a sign economic growth may have peaked. Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc's services index, which is based on a survey of purchasing managers by NTC Economics Ltd., fell to 57.2 from 57.6 in November. A reading above 50 indicates expansion. Economists expected the index to remain unchanged, the median of 24 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey showed.

Como esto sea así, puff deseo que no suba tanto, me lo paso bomba en el foro, a ver si lo tenemos que cerrar este año


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Antiguo 04-ene-2007, 18:58
andres85 andres85 está desconectado
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A mi me sigue dando igual, yo firme antes de que subiera.


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  #5  
Antiguo 04-ene-2007, 18:59
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Una hipoteca a 40 años de 300.000€ sería asesina totalmente.

De todos modos los que firmaron al 2% no tenían los precios de ahora, el problema lo tiene el q haya cogido una asesina de estas (tb es asesina 240.000€ a 40 años vaya)


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  #6  
Antiguo 04-ene-2007, 19:53
davidbarna davidbarna está desconectado
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No necesariamente subirá más el Euribor. Puede estabilizarse si anticipa que no hay más subidas tras las tres que comenta el artículo, cosa que puede suceder con una probabilidad bastante alta.

Previsiblemente el Euribor se estabilizará entre el 4,5% y el 5%, lo justo para que no haya un descalabro monumental.


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Antiguo 04-ene-2007, 20:08
nunca _bajan nunca _bajan está desconectado
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el gobierno no dejara que llegue a 4...

...

esto...

[autodestruccion en 3, 2, 1... BOOOM]


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