En 2007 empiezan la bajada de tipos.

Uy!!!!, me he equivocado. Previsiones:

http://www.bolsamania.com/actualida...lsamania_com.Pulsos&id=0720061123153917&isin=

Barclay´s Research revisa al alza sus previsiones para tipos en Euro Zona

23/11/2006 - 15:28 - MADRID, 23 NOV. (Bolsamania.com/BMS) .- En su informe de Economía diario los economistas de Barclay´s Research han aprovechado para revisar al alza sus previsiones para los tipos de interés en la Euro Zona. Más específicamente, hasta hoy anticipaban que el BCE haría una pausa en su ritmo de endurecimiento de la política monetaria una vez alcanzada la cota del 3,50%, para posteriormente elevar el precio en dos ocasiones adicionales a partir de marzo 2008.

Ahora, sin embargo, Barclay´s Research prevé una subida de tipos de 25 puntos básicos para marzo de este año seguida de otra subida, hasta el 4,0%, para mediados de 2008. No obstante, reconoce que existe el riesgo de que el BCE pudiera llegar a realizar esa segunda subida antes, hacia mediados de este año.

Como explicación de los anteriores cambios Barclay´s Research apunta a que ahora no prevé que el incremento del IVA alemán, a principios de 2007, vaya a tener un efecto tan pronunciado sobre el gasto en consumo, y la posibilidad de que las previsiones de inflación trimestrales del BCE (que conoceremos en diciembre), para 2008, apunten a un nivel de inflación en la Euro Zona del 2,0%.

A.B.



Casi se me olvida esta otra

http://www.bolsamania.com/actualida...lsamania_com.Pulsos&id=0720061123144737&isin=

Morgan Stanley revisa al alza sus previsiones para Alemania en 2007

23/11/2006 - 14:33 - MADRID, 23 NOV. (Bolsamania.com/BMS) .- En un anota de análisis emitida ayer los economistas del Banco de Inversión Morgan Stanley, Eric Chaney y Elga Bartsch, revisaron al alza su previsión para el crecimiento del PIB alemán en 2007 y sus previsiones para los tipos de interés en la Euro Zona.

Por lo que al crecimiento económico se refiere, estos economistas han pasado a vaticinar una tasa de crecimiento del +2,0% en 2007, frente al +1,5% antes esperado. Lo anterior responde a la confluencia de una serie de factores “cíclicos” y “estructurales”. Por el lado cíclico resulta de interés que no parecen poner excesivo énfasis (como otros economistas) sobre el impacto del incremento del IVA, a principios de 2007, como factor explicativo del tirón en el gasto en consumo este año. Además, han pasado a vaticinar menos “lastre” sobre el consumo procedente de las cotizaciones energéticas. No menos relevante, comentan sobre la disminución, más rápida que en el bienio 2003-2004, en la tasa de ahorro personal.

Y ya por el lado estructural, resultan de gran interés sus argumentos a favor de que se ha producido un incremento en los niveles de productividad desde 2003.

Por todo lo anterior, también han dejado de anticipar que el BCE recortará sus tipos de interés hacia finales de 2007. Más bien lo contrario, ahora estiman que volverá a elevar el precio del dinero este próximo ejercicio, aunque de forma menos agresiva que este año.

A.B.

gracias por los datos.
Como se puede apreciar sigue habienod interferencias en los datos...

Sigue sin cuadrarme.

Si ahora los tipos estan al 3.5 y el euribor al 4, el año que viene por estas fechas los tipos deberian estar al 4.5 Lo que espera el mercado son tipos de 4,5...

Danii quitale la prima, esa que se deja tocar el trastero de pq es de la familia, de 0.3...eso da 4.25.

Entonces estas previsiones no siguen las espectativas del mercado.

Blackbird dijo:

Sigue sin cuadrarme.

Si ahora los tipos estan al 3.5 y el euribor al 4, el año que viene por estas fechas los tipos deberian estar al 4.5 Lo que espera el mercado son tipos de 4,5...

Danii quitale la prima, esa que se deja tocar el trastero de pq es de la familia, de 0.3...eso da 4.25.

Entonces estas previsiones no siguen las espectativas del mercado.

Hacer clic para expandir...

Puede ser un intento de presión por parte de los bancos al BCE.
Un "Si los subes mas, vamos a tener jovenlandesesidad, credit crunch y crash inmobiliario. Todos estamos en el mismo barco"

Bueno, tambien puede ser que el mercado se equivoque. El euribor es un "futuro" de los tipos oficiales y como ya he dicho, en el pasado se han equivocado cuando ha cambiado la tendencia de estos.
Lo que esta claro es que o sigue subiendo o para, así que estaran en 4-4,25%.

When Germany goes well, we all go well

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=azxxyvMptyZw&refer=economy

European Economies: German Confidence Unexpectedly Increases

By John Fraher

Nov. 23 (Bloomberg) -- German business confidence unexpectedly rose in November, matching a 15-year high, as export and investment prospects improved in Europe's largest economy.

The Ifo institute's sentiment index, based on responses from 7,000 executives, climbed to 106.8 from 105.3 in October, touching a level last reached in June. The gain exceeded all 41 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey, which showed economists expected a decline to 105.2. Bonds fell and the euro advanced.

Today's report suggests the economy will weather a planned tax increase next year, which has clouded growth prospects since it was announced by Chancellor Angela Merkel a year ago. With lower oil prices, exports to Asia and companies' investment plans shoring up the economy, growth may pick up pace later in the year.

``The stronger the momentum in the economy, the easier it is to digest shocks like the hike in value-added tax,'' said Dirk Schumacher, an economist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in Frankfurt. ``Faster growth makes it more likely we'll get more rate increases'' from the European Central Bank.

Spanish council member Miguel Angel Fernandez Ordonez described today's report as ``marvelous'' and Barclays Capital economists said the ECB will raise its benchmark rate next year faster than they previously forecast.

``When Germany goes well, we all go well,'' said Ordonez in testimony to the Spanish senate in Madrid today.

The yield on the two-year German government bond, among the most sensitive to interest rates, rose the most since Nov. 3, rising 4 basis points to 3.7 percent. The euro rose as high as $1.2975 from $1.2942 yesterday.

Temporary Slump

``The German economy will find its feet again after a slump resulting from the VAT increase in the first quarter,'' said Joerg Kraemer, chief economist at Commerzbank AG.

Growth has accelerated as companies stepped up spending and hiring to avail of stronger demand at home and abroad, pushing Germany's jobless rate to a 2 1/2 year-low of 10.4 percent in October. Continental AG, the world's fourth-largest tiremaker, said today growth in Europe and Asia is driving business.

``I see the fourth quarter being thoroughly positive,'' said Alan Hippe, chief financial officer at the tiremaker in an interview in London.

The Ifo index's expectations component, gauging executives' assessment of business conditions in six months, rose for a second month, to 100.1 from 99.2. A separate index of current conditions advanced to 113.9, the highest since February 1991, from 111.9.

``It looks like German companies aren't afraid that any slowdown in the world economy will hurt them,'' said Gernot Nerb, chief economist at Ifo in a televised interview.

Raising Forecasts

The European Commission earlier this month raised its German growth forecasts and now expects the economy to expand 2.4 percent this year and 1.2 percent next. It previously projected growth of 2.2 percent and 1 percent. The price of oil has dropped 23 percent since it touched a record of $78.40 per barrel and was worth $58.97 per barrel at 1:55 p.m. in London.

The economy will nevertheless slow in the first three months of next year after Merkel raises VAT to 19 percent from 16 percent at present, according to Stefan Bielmeier, an economist at Deutsche Bank AG in Frankfurt, damping this year's recovery in consumer spending.

Executives may face additional burdens in the form of higher rates and a slowdown in the U.S., the world's largest economy.

ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet signaled this month the bank will raise its key rate for the sixth time in a year next month and colleagues including Nout Wellink of the Netherlands have suggested further moves in 2007.

Raising Rates

Barclays Capital economists said today the ECB will raise its key rate to 3.75 percent next year after the Ifo report, sooner than they previously forecast. Some say it could go even higher.

``The market is beginning to anticipate a rate of 4 percent,'' said Nordine Naam, an economist at Ixis CIB in Paris. Today's report ``changes the outlook for rates.''

The implied rate on Euribor futures contracts for December 2007 was at 3.86 percent at 3 p.m. in Frankfurt, up from 3.80 earlier today. The contracts settle to the three-month inter-bank offered rate for the euro, which has averaged 16 basis points more than the ECB's benchmark rate since the currency's start in 1999.

In Italy, the euro region's third-largest economy, business confidence dropped in November on concern about the outlook for the global economy.

Spending More

For now, domestic demand in Germany looks strong enough to keep the economy on track. Consumer spending rose 0.7 percent in the third quarter, the statistics office said today, as unemployment declined and some households brought forward purchases before next year's VAT increase. Economists expected a 0.2 percent gain, according to the median of 10 forecasts.

HeidelbergCement AG, Germany's biggest cement maker, said Nov. 6 third-quarter profit rose as construction spending in Europe rose and Merkel's council of economic advisors said two days later investments and exports will shore up 2007 growth.

``Expectations for 2007 are positive though things won't be as euphoric as they are right now,'' Ralph Wiechers, chief economist at the VDMA machinery industry association, whose members include Siemens AG and MAN AG, said before the report was released. ``Growth from exports and investment will still be fairly positive.''

To contact the reporters on this story: John Fraher in Berlin at jfraher@bloomberg.net