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  #31  
Antiguo 29-oct-2006, 00:21
The Cool Spot The Cool Spot está desconectado
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He seguido como he podido este hilo y a la vista de lo que en el se dice pienso que realmente la burbuja no tiene mas remedio que reventar en españa. El capital se va a polonia a buscar mayor provecho pues subidas del ventitantos por cien no se ven en mucho tiempo por aqui. A ver que dice ex-burbujista...


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  #32  
Antiguo 29-oct-2006, 00:47
proto-economista proto-economista está desconectado
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Do you think Poland will join the euro in just 12 years? It's difficult to affirm it. The Big 3 maybe won't be agree on it. There're are some speechs from european finanancial and political leaders that says the euro has to be a older currency to acept new members.


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  #33  
Antiguo 29-oct-2006, 01:42
poszi poszi está desconectado
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Do you think Poland will join the euro in just 12 years? It's difficult to affirm it. The Big 3 maybe won't be agree on it. There're are some speechs from european finanancial and political leaders that says the euro has to be a older currency to acept new members.

If I understand the accession treaty correctly, Poland can join euro without asking for permission if fulfills the Maastricht criteria and joins the ERM mechanism for 2 years before implementing euro. I think Slovenia completed the requirements and would join euro in 2007. But in Poland, there are still problems with the budget deficit and it is not going to improve quickly. Moreover, the government is eurosceptic and does not want euro (although the general public is mildly for euro) so 2012 is the estimate of economic commentators that is an earliest reasonable date possible but it can happen later especially if the economy worsens. But it is by no means an official goal.

Concerning the effect of fleeing speculators from Spain to Central Europe (if I understood the comment of The Cool Spot), you need to take into account the shallowness of the market. In Poland, there are 110000 dwellings built a year worth maybe about 100000 euro each on average. The rest of Central Europe consists of smaller countries so the total market is maybe twice as large. The second-hand market is also shallow and only a fraction of the market is available for the investors because they don't buy anything in the countryside or in small towns and even in big cities the great majority of purchases are still by Poles. The shalowness of the market is one of the reason why the price increases were so steep: 30% this year in Warsaw (and the year is not over) and similar figures in other big cities like Kraków or Wrocław. So in my opinion the flow of speculators' capital from Spain to central Europe can have some influance on your market but it would not be a major factor.


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