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  #11  
Antiguo 28-oct-2006, 00:11
Plaentxiator Plaentxiator está desconectado
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I'm sorry I know Spanish too little to write in your language.

I'm from Poland (but temporarily living in USA) and I can tell you that the bubble in Poland is absolutely crazy, especially this year. There are some foreign investors (mostly from Spain, Ireland and UK, sounds familiar ) but nevertheless the demand is in large part domestic. Real estate "analysts" spread fear and panic claiming that the boom would continue and Poland would mirror the fate of Spain and Polish prices would match Spanish some day despite the salaries which are a fraction of western ones. People take crazy mortgages, mortgages in local currency are too expensive for most of the people (even though the central bank interest rate is at record low: 4%) so 3/4 mortgages are in Swiss francs. Banks give mortgages to almost everybody and debt which is 10 times or more of the annual income is typical. In contrast to Spain, the boom is felt only in big cities. Small towns with large unemployment have still very low prices. The construction is increasing but is still rather low. About 110000 dwellings a year for a 38 million country is not that impressive (however, the population is declining both due to migration and birth/deaths ratio).

A crash in Spain would definitely help to deflate the bubble in Poland.

Your post is really interesting, assuming that you are who you claim to be. Are you, by any chance, Mr. Tochovista? It´s just a question, don´t get mad at me. We are becoming quite weird in the forum and really distrustful. It´s just that we are starting to see a fuckin´troll under every fucking´stone. It´s really starting to suck, so... if I am wrong, I will apologize.


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  #12  
Antiguo 28-oct-2006, 00:12
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czesc czesc! jak sa mas?? to je fakt strasne! ale to bude bit yesnie dalsi strasne!! ty pockam vy bit na eura, a budes koukit co dal nahoru muze cena prznit a co dal rihle vy penize odchod!

pszeprazam moje strasne super-impreza polski ale ja fakt liebem polska!

pa!

¡Joder! Me has dejado flipado... ¿Dominas el polaco?


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  #13  
Antiguo 28-oct-2006, 00:18
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Juajua, como los compradores de Polonia, sean todo especuladores españoles e irlandeses, me parece que a los polacos no les van a arruinar (dudo que con los sueldos de allí muchos puedan acceder a la vivienda), se van a arruinar ellos solos.

Lo malo para los polacos es que no podrán comprar casa durante un tiempo, eso sí... ¿pero y el tiempo que habrán tenido una economía mayor gracias a la construcción?


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  #14  
Antiguo 28-oct-2006, 01:07
poszi poszi está desconectado
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czesc czesc! jak sa mas?? to je fakt strasne! ale to bude bit yesnie dalsi strasne!! ty pockam vy bit na eura, a budes koukit co dal nahoru muze cena prznit a co dal rihle vy penize odchod!

pszeprazam moje strasne super-impreza polski ale ja fakt liebem polska!

pa!

Cześć. Jesteś z Czech albo Słowacji? I have a bit trouble understanding all you wrote. (Czech or Slovak to Polish is, I think, like Portugeese to Spanish).

I think before Poland joins euro, the boom would be gone. The current goverment is in no rush and the budget balance is still above Maastricht criteria. Poland would join euro in 2012 or later.

The nasty thing in mortgage market is that people take mortgages in Swiss francs. They are even cheaper than in euro and because of the capital inflow, the zloty is strenghening so they almost think it is free money. But the borrowers risk a lot. In a downturn, if zloty devaluates, they would be buried in debt.


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  #15  
Antiguo 28-oct-2006, 01:31
Pinchazo Pinchazo está desconectado
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Cześć. Jesteś z Czech albo Słowacji? I have a bit trouble understanding all you wrote. (Czech or Slovak to Polish is, I think, like Portugeese to Spanish).

I think before Poland joins euro, the boom would be gone. The current goverment is in no rush and the budget balance is still above Maastricht criteria. Poland would join euro in 2012 or later.

The nasty thing in mortgage market is that people take mortgages in Swiss francs. They are even cheaper than in euro and because of the capital inflow, the zloty is strenghening so they almost think it is free money. But the borrowers risk a lot. In a downturn, if zloty devaluates, they would be buried in debt.

We, the bubblelikers ("burbujistas" in Spanish), think that the "secret" to get down the prices is DON'T BUY. But you need that everybody (or most of them) make it.
In Spain exist a strange thinking about the prices of the houses only can raises and most of the potencial buyers buy because they think that they make a good deal and do it tomorrow would be worst.
Of course, this is false, and the prices have been raising until now because the people have could obtain the money through inmense debts that they will pay for years (20.. 30.. 40... ¡50! (as top)). And, now, with the raising of the interests (here the most has debts with variable interests), the potencial buyers are coming down.
We hope the prices go down soon...
This could explain why you prices goes up. We have a enormous construction capacity and, is very possible that some of our constructors intuit that here the business will become frozen are they goes to other countries with future potential buyers like yours.

You must avoid this trap. DON'T BUY, and the prices should go down to reasonable prices.

Greettings.


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  #16  
Antiguo 28-oct-2006, 01:36
poszi poszi está desconectado
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Your post is really interesting, assuming that you are who you claim to be. Are you, by any chance, Mr. Tochovista?

I know Internet is a place where men are men, women are men and young girls are FBI agents but I am Polish and I'm not Mr. Tochivista

I found this Forum from a link in Wikipedia article about Spanish property bubble and was reading it a bit from time to time. I know very basic Spanish but with a help of Google translate, I could understand a little.

By the way, I'm not yet sure about Poland but I can't believe there would be no crash in Spain. You are so overbuilt and so overstreched that there is virtually no chance for a soft landing. The question is, in my opinion, only the scope and length of the bust. Observing how the bubble started to deflate in the USA, I think you have likely already crossed the tipping point. I read that your mortgage originations are down and flats are getting longer and longer to sell. It takes quite a long time for prices to follow because sellers are stubborn and the market is illiquid. And because the market is not supported by the fundamentals, the sentiment is the key.


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  #17  
Antiguo 28-oct-2006, 01:45
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Espero que lo unico que consigan estos contrutoreh sea dar trabajo alli durante unos años y luego se tengan que volver cargados de tochos y con los bolsillos vacios...


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  #18  
Antiguo 28-oct-2006, 02:16
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We, the bubblelikers ("burbujistas" in Spanish), think that the "secret" to get down the prices is DON'T BUY. But you need that everybody (or most of them) make it.
In Spain exist a strange thinking about the prices of the houses only can raises and most of the potencial buyers buy because they think that they make a good deal and do it tomorrow would be worst.

Well, the bubble is truly global (you must have read the famous article from the Economist) and people in Poland think exactly the same. Moreover, because of high inflation in the past, there was never a severe nominal crash in Poland and most people indeed believe that there is no better investment that real estate. Others fear that if they don't buy now that would be priced out forever.

Of course, this is false, and the prices have been raising until now because the people have could obtain the money through inmense debts that they will pay for years (20.. 30.. 40... ¡50! (as top)). And, now, with the raising of the interests (here the most has debts with variable interests), the potencial buyers are coming down.

Yes, in Poland (as well as in the USA) it is (almost) all due to a credit bubble. The prices started to rise steeply when banks started to virtually pour money.

We have a enormous construction capacity and, is very possible that some of our constructors intuit that here the business will become frozen are they goes to other countries with future potential buyers like yours.

I couldn't believe when I read that in Spain 800,000 dwellings are built a year. You are on a path to have true ghost towns.

In Poland, only 110,000 dwellings are build but the demand is much larger (but recently a huge part of the demand is purely speculative). The supply is not catching mostly because of terrible zoning laws and slow bureaucracy. The fundamental situation is complicated. The number of dwellings per capita is low compared to the West and we have a demographic boom that is entering the market (but also fleeing abroad) as the peak of the recent boom was about 1983. But the prices are awfully high. An average person in Poland earns about 350-400 euro per month after tax and in Warsaw maybe about 600. Prices are exceeding 1500 euro/sq m in Warsaw (central districts are well above 2500 euro/sq m and districs with still reasonable transportation are about 2000 euro/m2) so even a small 50 sq m flat in suburbs is more than 10 years of average income. Warsaw has high income inequalities so there are peaple who can afford it and for the rest are "toxic" mortgages.

You must avoid this trap. DON'T BUY, and the prices should go down to reasonable prices.

Well, I'm also a "burbujista" and I'm not going to buy until the prices are sane. They would probably always be expensive because preople are pricing in future income growth but I think at the begining of 2005 the prices in Warsaw competely lost touch with reality (and are about 60% larger now ). It's funny because I work in the USA and earn a few times more than in Poland and the prices are rising faster than I can save (and I'm not going to take a toxic mortgage). I can't imagine buying anything with a Polish salary.


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  #19  
Antiguo 28-oct-2006, 02:45
>> 47 << >> 47 << está desconectado
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W Katalonii luvimy Polska vartzo.
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http://www.20minutos.es/noticia/130825/0/ai/vuelos/cia/
http://www.20minutos.es/noticia/108811/0/microsoft/google/buscador/
http://boards4.melodysoft.com/app?ID=Godall&msg=1622


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  #20  
Antiguo 28-oct-2006, 05:28
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W Katalonii luvimy Polska vartzo.

Tú hablas la lengua polaca mejor que yo hablo español

But don't expect me write more (or in Catalan). I spent 15 minutes writing this short sentence...


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