(Reuters) - Nuclear experts can't agree what the worst-case scenario for Japan's nuclear crisis might be, so predicting the impact of the disaster on the world's third-largest economy with any accuracy is an impossible task.

But even if a catastrophic nuclear meltdown is averted, a drawn-out battle to stabilise the earthquake-crippled Fukushima plant poses a serious risk to an economy already burdened with huge public debt, an ageing population and a big bill to rebuild from a quake and tsunami disaster that caused damages possibly topping $300 billion.

"What is the worst-case scenario? Most people think it's a mushroom cloud. But the worst-case scenario is that this drags on, not one month or two months or six months, but for two years, or indefinitely," said Jesper Koll, director of equity research at JPMorgan Securities in Tokyo. "Japan will be bypassed. That is the real nightmare scenario."

Hundreds of engineers have been toiling for nearly three weeks to cool the plant's reactors and avert a meltdown of fuel rods, although that scenario seems to have become less likely.

"There is no 'best case' but the base case assumption is that things will be controlled and the long-term negative effects will be locally contained and won't affect the national economy -- and most importantly, the psyche of the people of one of the largest urban areas in the world," Koll added, referring to the capital of Tokyo with its population of some 13 million.

Fukushima plant operator Tokyo Electric Power Co (TEPCO) (9501.T) said on Wednesday that it would likely take a "fairly long time" to finally stabilise damaged reactors at the plant but company Chairman Tsunehisa Katsumata was unable to be more specific about the timeline.

That means, for now, the biggest threat for companies and consumers alike is uncertainty.

CONSUMER SPENDING AT RISK

A prolonged lack of clarity would add to pressure on Japanese firms to shift production overseas while further decreasing the attraction of Japan as an investment destination for foreign companies, already put off by the spectre of earthquakes, a strong yen and a sluggish economy.

The hollowing-out of Japan's economy has already seen overseas production rise to 20 percent of total output from 6 percent over the past two decades.

"It's not just companies outside Japan but companies in Japan that would become reluctant to make decisions to invest," said Takuji Okubo, chief economist at Societe Generale Securities in Tokyo.

Ironically, perhaps, that might help Japanese corporate profits if not the domestic economy.

"Japanese companies relocating faster overseas will increase profit margins, since overseas profit margins are three to five times higher than at domestic facilities," Koll said.

Simmering anxiety about the nuclear crisis and its impact on health through a spreading contamination of food and the atmosphere with radiation could also dampen consumer spending, economists said -- though, again, to what extent is difficult to gauge.

"Uncertainty is disliked by consumers and businesses," said Robert Feldman, chief economist at Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities in Tokyo. "The longer the uncertainty continues, the harder it is for demand to revive."

New readings announced on Wednesday showed a spike in radioactive iodine in the sea off the plant to 3,355 times the legal limit, although experts say the vastness of the ocean and a powerful current should dilute the levels and limit the danger to fish and other marine life.

Radiation above legal limits has also been found in vegetables, milk and tap water in areas outside the 20 km (12 mile) evacuation zone around the nuclear complex, and an extended crisis would increase concerns about food. Worries about atmospheric contamination, even if unfounded, could incline people to stay home rather than eat out or entertain.

TOURISM AND TRADE

However, it is difficult to quantify just how spending habits would change.

"We tend to think eating out and drinking or other activities outside account for a lot, but it isn't that people would stop living in their houses, and they still have to eat," Okubo said, noting that restaurants, accommodation and travel accounted for about 8 percent of Japanese consumption compared to 25 percent for housing and utilities.

"People would find other ways to consume and spend their money. Maybe people would spend more in health or they might start buying cars because they don't like walking on the street."

Travel, tourism and trade would also be affected.

Several countries have already banned milk and produce from areas near the damaged nuclear plant because of contamination fears, although food makes up only 1 percent of Japan's exports. Broadcaster NHK said that even the city of Kyoto, a long distance from the nuclear plant, had seen overseas orders for Japanese tea shrink.

"When we are faced with uncertainty, we tend to overestimate the cost and damage, so I'd say even if the whole affair lasts something like a year, if I were to quantify the damage, I'd say 1 percent of GDP could be lost because of the prolonged nuclear problem," Okubo said. "I've forecast 1 percent growth this year, so I might have to forecast marginally negative growth."

Even forecasting the impact of the quake and tsunami disaster alone is tough, given questions about the timing, content and financing of a reconstruction package that will be the biggest since Japan's devastating defeat in World War Two.

Forecasts in a poll of 10 economists for calendar 2011 ranged from 1.5 percent growth to a drop of 1.2 percent.

Perhaps more worrisome than the direct economic impact is the possible damage to the "Japan Brand", an asset that is as invaluable as it is hard to quantify. "The ultimate question is what happens to the 'Cool Japan' brand," Koll said.

"It's an intangible. Japan does have brand value, but now Japan may become viewed in world eyes as 'kawaiso' (pitiful) and a victim ... There was an aura about Japan that definitely did work."

Iniciado por Karma police

No sé donde ves el surrealismo en lo de la "marca Japón", para mi está bien claro desde el primer día que una de las principales victimas de este desastre - a nivel económico- es el famoso "Made in Japan".

Ni dios va a querer cosas cultivadas, procesadas, pescadas o fabricadas en Japón mientras tengan la posibilidad de comprar similares de otro lado o querrias tú comer lechugas de Chernobil y Conducir un coche hecho en Pripyat?

Pues eso.

Sin entrar a contar que miles de empresas extranjeras sacaran sus centros de operaciones en Asia de Japón para llevarlos a China, Corea del Sur, Vietnam o similares, o incluso las empresas Japonesas que ya hablan de sacar sus centros de producciñon de Japón aprovechando que el Pisuera pasa por Valladolid.

Japon como Marca está tocadisimo y tardará muchisimo en recuperar su status pre crisis nuclear. Nadie invertirá alli arriesgandose a ser asociado, ellos y sus productos, a la radioactividad. Los expatriados ya han empezado a huir, las sedes iran detrás, los cerebros japoneses lo empezarán a tener más sencillo fuera que dentro...en fin, el daño es de un valor a dia de hoy incalculable.

Y no he metido en la ecuación la perdida de Japon como destino turistico y la perdida de empleos en ese sector, lo de este año va a ser historico, igual de historica será la caida en el tráfico de sus puertos. Los barcos no quieren ni oir de acercarse a Japón.

Iniciado por Marai

Tratar de explicar la economía de un país reduciéndola a términos de marketing tipo "marca japón" es una simplificación MUY, MUY exagerada. Una visión excesivamente "marketiniana". Si tu "compras" esa visión, como tú lo veas. Yo no la compro desde luego.

Iniciado por Maradono

Pero sin energía nuclear subirá mucho la factura de la luz y eso será negativo para la economía.

Currently, there are no signs that the government, insurance companies or private investors are selling or plan to sell foreign assets to finance the rebuilding. Investors are acting on the anticipation of anticipation of events.

There are a number of reasons to believe that the repatriation thesis is speculative. Investors will be reluctant to sell foreign investments as they typically provide higher returns than Japanese assets. The government may prefer domestic financing, to avoid an increase in the value of the Yen, to maintain Japanese export competitiveness. As this was already a concern before the disaster, the imperative to avoid any increase in the value of the Yen will be significant.

Iniciado por Pérfida Albión

Hay quien considera que las "tesis de repatriacion" de las inversiones extranjeras japonesas son puramente especulativas....



Satyajit Das: The Economic Calculus of Japan