Del foro de Kitco:

posted by silverrex: "moved stop to under 35.4, expecting silver to put in a right shoulder with price currently forming the head of a inverted h&s, if silver can reclaim 36.50, this bearish triangle pattern will be in full gear.

looking for silver to retest 38 and or perhaps going short after"

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Pregunta de novato, ¿porque se supone que tiene que bajar antes de anunciar el Q3?

Para que el precio de las commodities no sea insostenible.

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Aunque os leo, aprendo y admiro, nunca seria capaz de hacer lo que haceis, no creo que mi corazon aguantase mas de una semana...

El comentario solo es por el "desacople" que ultimamente veo entre la plata papel y la fisica, que segun aprecio cada vez la distancia es mayor, y mientras en 24hgold sube y baja asi como 50€ el kilo de un dia para otro, otras paginas que venden fisico como sempsa, mantienen el precio siempre entre 60 y 90 € por encima de digamos...... una cotizacion "maxima diaria", situacion que no se daba con anterioridad, ya que replicaba bastante bien el precio "oficial".

Solo es un comentario medio "off-topic" pido disculpas con antelacion.

Un cordial saludo.

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Bueno, me la he jugado; he entrado largo en 35,8 y ahí sigo. (acojonado todo hay que decirlo ) Pienso que rondará los 36,5 y luego ya veremos...

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Es una buena entrada, la tenia en mente al ser un soporte/resistencia y un buen trozo por debajo de un numero entero (36) pero cuando llego a ese precio no lo vi claro, luego me anime justo cuando reboto en los 36$...

Cuando me echo (stop corto..) era al 2º oportunidad de volver a entrar por ese precio... si no hubiera entrado en los casi 36 hubiera sido entonces, me siento mas cómodo al coger una posición que a sido superada y esta dando un bajoncillo para volver a subir.

En fin acojonado anda todo el mundo, yo estoy mas mirando desde hace días y ayer entre bien pero luego me echo hoy, y hoy 2 entradas malas casi al momento de romper las pequeñas tendencias que llevaban

En fin esto es asi, debo cargar menos y poner un stop mas amplio... como siempre digo y no siempre hago...

PD: lo que me dejo roto es que ahora no veo por donde marcar la tendencia, me siento en tierra de nadie...

Con esto que digo no me refiero a ninguna empresa española(ni inglesa) que quede bien claro, seria coincidencia un parecido con realidad.

Yo no creo que sea eso, simplemente cuando no tienen o casi no tienen desvian las ventas hacia otras tiendas posicionandose en precio un poco o bastante mas alto que su competencia,seria una manera amable de decir ;"tengo otros clientes mejores,gracias"

Las fundiciones "perifericas" tienen grandes contratos de suministros a las grandes alemanas y suizas y podria no interesar vender al detall al público en general.
Las refinerias de Suiza las han metido un cuarto y quinto turno para poder dar a basto de lo que se está recolectando en los PIGS

No me gusta nada la bajada de hoy, rebasando el soporte 23.6% Fibo a la baja.
Después del bajón, la onda de recuperación respetaba fielmente los niveles Fibo. El próximo nivel a alcanzar era el del 50%, pero no ha podido con el 38.2%.

Poniéndonos en lo peor, viendo el tema desde un punto de vista bajista, después del bajón gordo, el precio ha experimentado un retroceso de 38.2% (subida) y ahora el rebasar a la baja el soporte 23.6% podria llevar el precio a los infiernos.

Eso desde un punto de vista técnico.
Desde el punto de vista fundamental las cosas siguen igual, osea, cada día más jodida para el dolar en particular y las demas fiat en general, lo que supone que hay que estar en metales físicos si o si.

Silver Inventories Dangerously Low; 3 Stocks to Consider

One would think that as prices dropped sharply in the silver “market” during the month of May, the Comex would contain more silver in inventory as big players fearing some form of run on the Comex soon lost their appetite for the precious metal amid the mini-crash of a more than 30% in price in the first week of May and wouldn’t stand for delivery.

Well, one would think incorrectly. As the silver price dropped, the rate of depletion of available silver dropped as well, but the rate of depletion still remains at a near free-fall rate.

In fact, according to the Comex’s Metal Depository Statistics report, just released, registered silver bullion at the Comex has dropped again to a record low of 29.6 million ounces in May, a drop of 3.5 million ounces in one month. That drop comes off the heals of a 8 million plunge in inventories in April, from February.

At today’s silver price of $37, the value of total Comex silver available for delivery equates to a miniscule $1.1 billion.

Compare the 29.6 million ounces with the Comex’s inventory of registered silver reading of 86.6 million ounces in July of 2008, or a decline of 1.7 million ounces, on average, each month. So, the raid on the silver stock has escalated markedly during the last two reporting months of April and May.

At the present rate of offload, the Comex stores approximately six months of inventory of silver bullion.

Click here for a graph of the trend in Comex silver inventories since August 2008.

Rick Rule, founder of Global Resource Investor, told Eric King of King World News that the paper market in silver is a tool for institutions to trade the white metal, but the underlying physical shortage available to fabricators and retail investors continues at prevailing prices.

“Yeah I think there is absolute shortage in the physical market,” said Rule. “There has been some softness (in the price) which I think is mostly a ******** of two things, generally a sort of risk off trade as institutional investors in particular have found credit conditions more difficult, and of course the tightening of the margin requirements in the futures markets.”

Rule added, “But I don’t think that has obviated the near-term physical shortage, which has come about from very, very strong retail end user investment demand and a shortage of coin strip.”

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Vamos a darnos un poco de moral y un baño de realidad, esto ya está oliendo a chamusquina porque según el inventario hoy día del Crimex, los stocks de plata son de 29M de onzas, MÁS BAJO QUE NUNCA!, en cambio, el precio sigue bajando.
En la plata hay un manipuleo bestial, que no está ocurriendo con ninguna otra commodity Cosas veredes Don Sancho...

Where Will You Be When Reality Hits?

Below is a huge chart showing the Registered CRIMEX Silver Inventory since 1996. The amount of silver that the CRIMEX has available for delivery for its paper contracts has never been lower, at 29 million ounces. This is even lower when Warren Buffet was buying silver in the late 90′s.



The thing I find most interesting is the recent inventory drop. This current silver bull got started in September when JP Morgue closed their commodities prop desk and silver went from $17.76 to $50. Despite the tripling of price and a violent smack down in May, the only thing consistent, is that the REAL inventories are going straight down. Logic would dictate that if prices triple either more inventory should find its way into the market or at the very least, make it too expensive for people to buy. Or the aggressive volatility up AND down would scare people away from this investment. Despite the massive upswing in price and the very apparent market manipulation from the masters of the universe, REAL physical silver keeps leaving those paper traitors in to the hands of the Aware.



All of this has happened while 99.9% of the world is completely unaware what physical silver represents as a investment. Someday soon, reality is going to hit humanity and there will be no going back.

The reality is that there is only 29 Million ounces of REAL physical silver against the BILLIONS of paper ounces trading on the CRIMEX.

The reality is that if less than 3% of all paper silver contracts stood for delivery, there would not be enough silver to cover that promise to deliver.

The reality is that the 8 largest banks are short 150 days of worldwide physical mining production of silver, there is not enough physical silver in the world to cover that position.

The reality is that we are on the verge of the greatest financial crisis the world has ever known, all because of fiat paper and fractional reserve banking.

The reality is that when this collapses, ALL paper assets will be destroyed.

The reality is that wealth will change in perceived value and that REAL assets will be the ONLY place to be.

The reality is that less than a fraction of a percent of the world’s wealth is in REAL assets like silver and Quadrillions are in paper assets.

No other REAL asset has the more uses and has been suppressed for so long as silver.

So where will you be when reality hits?



Don't Tread On Me- When You Are Aware You Can Prepare.

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