Who will buy Treasuries when the Fed doesn’t? I don’t know. Reserve surplus sovereigns are likely good for their standard $500 billion annually but the banks are now making loans instead of buying Treasuries, and bond funds are not receiving generous inflows like they were as late as November of 2010. Who’s left? Well, let me not go too far. Temporary voids in demand are not exactly a buyers’ strike. Someone will buy them, and we at PIMCO may even be among them. The question really is at what yield and what are the price repercussions if the adjustments are significant. Fed Vice Chairman Janet Yellen in a speech just last week confirmed the theoretical rationale that Treasury yields are directly linked to the outstanding quantity of longer-term assets in the hands of the public. If that quantity is suddenly increased in one year as the charts imply, what are the yield consequences? What I would point out is that Treasury yields are perhaps 150 basis points or 1½% too low when viewed on a historical context and when compared with expected nominal GDP growth of 5%.

Iniciado por Fray Guillermo

Bill Gross responde la pregunta: habrá compradores, incluso seguramente ellos mismos, pero exigirán tipos de interés mucho mayores. Calcula que como mínimo los bonos a 10 años habrán de pagar un punto y medio porcentual más. Eso sería una hecatombre en el sistema financiero/monetario americano.

Iniciado por miaavg

Los Chinos sino Game Over para ellos y para los otros y sino que vendan el Oro de Ford Knox y verás que contentos se ponen los chinorris.

Iniciado por miaavg

Los Chinos sino Game Over para ellos y para los otros y sino que vendan el Oro de Ford Knox y verás que contentos se ponen los chinorris.

Iniciado por skeptik

Bueno, ¿y qué problema hay? Después del Quantitative Easing II vendrá el Quantitative Easing III. Los intereses extra se pagarán revirtiendo (aún) menos en los ciudadanos, o subiéndoles los impuestos. Nada nuevo bajo el sol.