El dato del ZEW puede hacer que el BCE se piense hasta donde va a llevar el tipo de interés a muy corto plazo. Es posible que quizá llegue hasta el 3'5% a finales de año y espere después a ver como encaja el consumidor alemán la subida del IVA del 16 al 19%. Se dice que en Alemania los consumidores están adelantando todas las compras importantes que pueden para evitar esos 3 puntos extras de IVA, y que eso podría estar alterando temporalmente los datos macroeconómicos.

Si hay subida de tipos en Diciembre es posible que no veamos otra hasta el verano que viene como poco.....

ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment - Expectations Again declined

The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany dropped by 16.6 points in September. Compared with minus 5.6 points in August, the indicator's current level of minus 22.2 points is now far below its historical average of 34.7 points.

There are different reasons for the anew decline of the indicator. First of all, the drop of world demand as a result of the expected slowdown of the US economy is likely to negatively affect German exports. Secondly, the positive impacts of domestic demand will lessen at the beginning of next year, as the VAT increase will slow down private consumption. Finally, investment projects will be more expensive due to the restrictive monetary policy of the ECB.

Again, the financial experts surveyed give a more favourable assessment of the economic situation in Germany. The corresponding indicator is up from 33.6 points to 38.9 points in September.

"The gap between expectations and the current situation again indicates that the positive business climate is at risk. The German government should not ignore these alarm signals und redress the serious imbalances in its economic policy", said ZEW President Prof. Dr. Dr. h.c. mult. Wolfgang Franz.

Economic expectations for the euro zone also declined considerably in September. The indicator decreased by 11.5 points and now stands at minus 10.2 points. This month the
corresponding indicator for the current economic situation in the euro zone rose by 5.6 points to 40.5 points.


307 analysts and institutional investors participated in this month's ZEW Financial Markets Survey which is conducted on a monthly basis by the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW), Mannheim. The participants were asked from September 4 to September 18, 2006 about their medium-term expectations concerning economic activity and capital markets. The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment shows the balance between positive and negative expectations regarding future economic activity in Germany within a timeframe of six months. The horizontal line indicates the historical mean of the indicator.

Trichet ha dicho ya en varias ocasiones que no es su misión evitar que las economías recesionen, sino evitar las subidas de precio... Esa es una diferencia fundamental entre FED y BCE.
Los halcones quieren subirlos hasta el 4%, y Trichet quiere credibilidad, y parar los mercados inmobiliarios (SIC).

Que al BCE le importa un pimiento la situación de la economía española no lo dudo ni un milisegundo. Que tendrá MUY en cuenta la situación de Alemania antes de subir demasiado los tipos, tampoco. Si la memoria no me falla, solo Alemania supone casi el 25% del PIB de la Eurozona. No es como para andar jugando con los tipos alegremente.

The task
The Governing Council of the ECB has to influence the level of short-term interest rates to ensure that price stability is maintained over the medium term.

To do so, the Governing Council needs

* to interpret economic developments,
* to analyse their implications for future risks to price stability, and
* to take into account how its policy decisions are transmitted to the economy.

The central bank constantly faces a high level of uncertainty regarding

* the nature and size of economic shocks. An economy is permanently subject to largely unforeseeable economic shocks, such as oil price changes or technological innovations. These can affect the economy in different ways.
The appropriate monetary policy for maintaining price stability depends on the circumstances. For example, the appropriate monetary policy response to an oil price increase will be different from that required in the case of a decrease in demand. Yet another response will be necessary depending on whether the oil price increase is expected to be temporary or long-lasting.
* the existence and strength of the relationships that link macroeconomic variables;
* the transmission mechanism of its policy impulses to the economy.

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The ECB's principles
To deal with this uncertainty, the ECB's strategy aims to

* firmly anchor inflation expectations. Monetary policy is considerably more effective if it firmly anchors inflation expectations. In this respect, it is crucial that the central bank specifies its goal, sticks to a consistent and systematic method for conducting monetary policy, and communicates its decisions and actions clearly and openly.

* be forward-looking. Owing to the lags in the transmission process, changes in monetary policy today will only affect the price level after several quarters or years. This means that central banks need to ascertain what policy stance is needed today in order to maintain price stability in the future, after the transmission lags unwind.

* focus on the medium term. Monetary policy should have a medium-term orientation in order to avoid the introduction of unnecessary volatility into the real economy.
The transmission lags make it impossible in the short run for monetary policy to offset unanticipated shocks to the price level (for example, those caused by changes in international commodity prices). Some short-term volatility in inflation rates is therefore unavoidable. In addition, the transmission process is complex and there is always a large element of uncertainty about the effects of monetary policy.
About the medium-term orientation

* be broadly based. Owing to the uncertainty about economic relationships and the reliability of economic indicators, a successful monetary policy has to be broadly based, taking into account all relevant information and using several approaches and models in order to understand the factors driving economic developments.

Quantitative definition
While the Treaty clearly establishes the primary objective of the ECB, it does not give a precise definition of what is meant by price stability.

The ECB’s Governing Council has announced a quantitative definition of price stability:

* "Price stability is defined as a year-on-year increase in the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for the euro area of below 2%."

The Governing Council has also clarified that, in the pursuit of price stability, it aims to maintain inflation rates below, but close to, 2% over the medium term.

Que al BCE le importa un pimiento la situación de la economía española no lo dudo ni un milisegundo. Que tendrá MUY en cuenta la situación de Alemania antes de subir demasiado los tipos, tampoco. Si la memoria no me falla, solo Alemania supone casi el 25% del PIB de la Eurozona. No es como para andar jugando con los tipos alegremente.