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Get Ready For An Impending Crude Correction By Mass Rollover

"Crude inventory at Cushing, Oklahoma just rose 1.1 million barrels to hit a new all-time high of 38.6 million barrels (See Exhibit 1)

cushing

Image: Dian L. Chu

Take Delivery or Rollover

So basically, there’s not a real physical oil shortage, and crude prices primarily have been moving from fear and speculation depending on news and rumor coming out of MENA.

Now with crude prices bid up so much, traders are left with a dilemma - to be in the crude oil trade, players basically either have to take delivery, or rollover contracts and options comes expiration time. However, with storage at Cushing, Oklahoma pretty much at capacity, and price curve front month (April) loaded, it is doubtful that anybody would be in a position to take physical delivery.

It's The Rollover That'll Get Crude

And don’t forget that the humongous United States Oil Fund (USO) is a futures-based ETF that has to rollover as scheduled (from Mar. 8 to Mar. 11). The USO effect, plus the record open interest almost exclusively long and heavy in April, there will likely be a massive rollover starting with USO around March 8, then to all the other market players, when April contracts and options expire (See Chart). That will push down the April price for both Brent and WTI, regardless what’s going on in Libya and MENA.

cushing

From the current price and technical signals, WTI could easily correct down to $94 to $95, Brent could drop to $110 to $106 range. From a trading standpoint, short WTI at the beginning of the rollover then cover when the trend starts to wane would be a good move this March month."

Petróleo a 10$ (minuto 6:40 de la segunda parte). Me extraña ver a Maloney hablando de deflación, pensaba que apostaba por la hiperinflación más bien (y por eso ha recomendado la inversión en metales desde hace años). Supongo que algo he entendido mal de todo esto.

+ YouTube Video

+ YouTube Video

Al final de la presentación un hombro-cabeza-hombro inverso ya señalaba que la plata se iría a unos 30$ estando por los 20$.

El barril de petrleo supera los 120 dlares por primera vez desde agosto de 2008 | Economa | elmundo.es

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Otra Commodity para ponerse largo..... Dicen por ahí que si rompe 120 se ira a 140 directo.Lo malo es que un par de noticias y da unos bandazos que no veas.