Burbuja.info - Foro de economía > > > Morgan Stanley confirma la explosión de la burbuja en USA
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  #1  
Antiguo 02-sep-2006, 10:39
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En USA aceptan que la explosión de la burbuja es un hecho, incluso hablan de recesión a corto plazo.

http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata...60825-fri.html

Extraído del artículo:
Five and a half years ago the equity bubble popped. Within six months, the US economy went into mild recession, and the global economy was quick to follow. Today, America’s housing bubble is finally bursting. Is the die cast for another bubble-induced downturn in the US and global economy?



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  #2  
Antiguo 02-sep-2006, 10:41
tochovista tochovista está desconectado
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Lo celebro y espero que muchos pongáis vuestras barbas a remojar.

Vamos a empezar a escuchar noticias repetidamente, el show está servido...


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  #3  
Antiguo 02-sep-2006, 10:52
Darok Darok está desconectado
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Ya lo posteé en artículos interesantes, pero lo vuelvo a postear aquí:
Now that the party is over, how bad will the hangover be?
http://www.economist.com/finance/dis...ory_id=7843304


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  #4  
Antiguo 02-sep-2006, 10:54
tochovista tochovista está desconectado
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Ya lo posteé en artículos interesantes, pero lo vuelvo a postear aquí:
Now that the party is over, how bad will the hangover be?
http://www.economist.com/finance/dis...ory_id=7843304


Hola Darok,

Puedes hacer un resumen del artículo,


Por cierto, tu pie de página refleja una realidad absoluta, creo que coincido contigo


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  #5  
Antiguo 02-sep-2006, 11:29
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El mercador inmobilario americano (EEUU) se ha golpeado la cabeza con el techo (ha tocado techo); ahora los inversores y los propietarios de casas están preguntandose cómo de rápido — y cómo de dura - será el golpetazo en el suelo.

...
Dice que el incremento en el precio de las viviendas ha sido el menor de los últimos 11 años. Que ha caído las ventas en un 11.2% respecto al último año, y que el stock de viviendas sin vender alcanzó los niveles más altos desde 1993. La caída en la demanda está hudiendo la industria de la construcción. El número de refinanciaciones ha aumentado mientras que el número de nuevas hipotecas ha bajado. Después habla de como puede afectar a la economía del país (consumo) y de que zonas pueden verse afectadas (las que subieron más). Y sigue comentando cosas varias. Finalmente comenta que los que realizan predicciones no creen todavía que esto puede acarrear una recesión. Pero que toda la gente del sector inmobilario está esperando que no sea muy largo el camino hasta tocar suelo XD (vamos que desean que no dure mucho por cuanto más dure mayor ostión , es decir que están acojonados)

PD: En cuánto a mi firma es parte de la historia de BURBUJIX que puso otro forero en un post (http://burbuja.info/inmobiliaria/sho...light=BURBUJIX). Me gustó tanto que decidí añadir una parte en mi firma


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  #6  
Antiguo 02-sep-2006, 11:52
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En España vamos a tener un castañazo mayor:

Causas:

1) Dependemos demasiado de la construcción
2) Nuestra tecnología es de risa I + D (NEFASTO)
3) Balanza comercial (las exportaciones nefastas)
4) Elevado endeudamiento
5) No podemos inventarnos guerras como hace USA
6) Se acaban las ayudas europeas
7) Tradicionalmente un país con elevados índices de desempleo


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Antiguo 02-sep-2006, 12:24
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More Evidence US
Housing Boom Is Finished
Compiled by Don Stacey
8-18-6


Sacramento, California


"
Sacramento County saw California's steepest year-over-year fall in median home prices during July, according to DataQuick. Median sales prices for new and resale homes and condominiums in Sacramento County fell 5 percent below July 2005 levels. For existing single-family homes, prices fell 3.2 percent below July 2005."

"
The number of homes to choose from in El Dorado, Placer, Sacramento and Yolo counties climbed to a record 15,474, more than twice the inventory in July 2005."


Sacramento bee

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ ++++++


Portland, Oregon

Housing boom might be kaput
Lower sales prices and higher inventory signal cooler times for Portland listings

"...a July median home price decline that bucks the three-year trend of relentlessly rising values. The area's median home price dropped to $274,700 in July, from $280,000 in June..."

"...
the inventory of houses for sale rose in July to 3.5 months' supply, up from 2.6 months in June. That was the Portland area's highest inventory since January 2005, and it was the highest figure for a summer month in three years...."

"While buyers may find more houses to choose from than a few months ago, they're also anxious about overpaying, said agent Peggy Hoag. About six weeks ago, buyers for six houses she was selling withdrew offers that had been accepted by the seller, Hoag said. 'It's bizarre,' Hoag said. 'They got skittish and went sideways. They hadn't even done the inspections yet.'"

http://www.oregonlive.com/business/o...750.xml&coll=7


++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ +++++++++++++++


Massachusetts

The Patriot Ledger. "The median single-family home price on the South Shore dipped 1.4 percent to $360,000, the Massachusetts Association of Realtors reported yesterday. The condo sales volume fell 6.2 percent on the South Shore, compared with the statewide drop of 8.9 percent. The median condo price fell 3.1 percent to $255,000 on the South Shore."

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

United States

Home sales decline in 28 states
Wednesday, August 16, 2006

WASHINGTON -- The nation's once-booming housing market slumped even further in the spring with sales declining in 28 states, led by big drops in the formerly red-hot areas of Arizona, Florida and California......

http://www.oregonlive.com/cgi-bin/pr...4116116260.pdf


++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ ++++++++++++++


San Francisco, California

Dataquick has some numbers out today in California. "Home sales in the Bay Area slowed to their lowest level in ten years as prices increased at their slowest pace since spring 2003. A total of 7,941 new and resale houses and condos were sold in the nine-county region last month. That was down 19.1 percent from 9,892 for June, and down 30.8 percent from 11,470 for July last year, according to DataQuick."

http://www.dqnews.com/RRBay0806.shtm


++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ ++++++++++++


Southern California

The LA Times. "Southern California home sales fell to their lowest level in nine years last month as price appreciation continued to decelerate, data showed.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Washington, DC, area

The Washington Times has this report from DC. "Home sales are plummeting at double-digit rates in the Washington area, the National Association of Realtors reported. Markets in Virginia that enjoyed the most rapid appreciation during the boom, are now experiencing a faster decline and tougher adjustment than slower-to-bloom markets."


++++++++++++++++++++++++

Florida

Some housing bubble reports from Florida. The Palm Beach Post, "Sales of existing single-family homes in Palm Beach County posted the biggest second-quarter decline in the state as one of the hottest real estate markets in the nation continued to cool down, a Florida Association of Realtors report shows."

"Indeed, home sales dropped in all 20 markets in Florida, with all but two posting double-digit slides compared with the same quarter a year ago."

"Home sales fell by 23 percent in Miami-Dade county.

"Sales of existing homes in the Sarasota-Bradenton market fell 39 percent during the second quarter..."

"Sales of houses and condos slipped during the second quarter of the year in Collier County. The number of houses sold in the county last quarter was down 44 percent from the second quarter of 2005. Condo sales decreased by 53 percent during the second quarter this year compared to last year."

+++++++++++++++++++++++++

Homebuilders

The homebuilders association has this out today. "Reacting to what they perceive as increasing consumer uncertainty regarding the market for new single-family homes, builders tempered their views on current and expected sales activity in the Home Builders Housing Market Index for August, released today. The HMI declined seven points to 32, its lowest level since February of 1991. This was the seventh consecutive month in which builder confidence, as measured by the index, has fallen."

+++++++++++++++++++++++++

Banks

The LA Times. "Reflecting the slowdown in the nation's housing market, more U.S. banks reported weaker demand for mortgages in July, the Federal Reserve said Monday in a survey of senior loan officers."

"As the housing sector cools from its torrid pace, the Fed found that about 60% of respondents saw weaker demand for mortgages, which was 'a significantly larger net fraction than in the April survey,' the report said."

"The Fed also asked about the performance of so-called nontraditional mortgages, such as interest-only mortgages. 'Nearly 30 percent of banks, on net, indicated that they expect the quality of the nontraditional residential mortgage products currently on their books will deteriorate somewhat over the next 12 months,' the Fed survey said."

++++++++++++++++++++++++

Chicago

Some housing reports from the central US. "Downtown Chicago condominium sales fell about 24 percent in the first six months of 2006 from a year earlier. Buyers signed contracts or reservations for 3,739 Chicago condominiums through June, a decline from 4,898 in the same period of 2005, a record year, according to Appraisal Research Counselors."

+++++++++++++++++++++++

Nebraska

From Nebraska. "It's a buyer's market for Omaha-area home shoppers, expert told KETV. About 6,000 homes are up for sale around the metro, and a number of real estate experts said that is among the largest pools of available real estate in decades."

"It's a phenomenon being seen across the country as row upon row of unsold homes flood the market. Real estate experts said the national numbers of available homes are the highest they've been in half a century, and Omaha isn't immune."

+++++++++++++++++++++

Danville, Illinois

"Industrial towns losing jobs suffered the worst. In Danville, Ill., median home prices fell 11% in the second quarter to $65,200, cheapest in the country.

+++++++++++++++++++++

Condominiums

Condominium prices in 14 markets, including overheated areas like Virginia Beach, San Diego, and Palm Bay, Fla., also declined. The reason: Speculators who thought they could flip the properties for a quick buck are trying to bail out now."

+++++++++++++++++++++++++

Texas Foreclosures

Four Texas Cities In Top Ten


Some foreclosure reports from Texas. "Four Texas cities are on a list of top 10 cities for foreclosures as foreclosure rates climb in Texas, and the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex is near the top. Home sales are big in Dallas/Fort Worth but so are foreclosures, at three times the national average."

"It seems the biggest problem is a lot of people believe they can afford the home of their choice, and they can't. 'I think what we're seeing in the foreclosure side is the fact that people have gotten into too much property,' foreclosure expert George Roddy said."

"Roddy said job loss isn't what's driving foreclosures now, the soaring cost of living is. 'The cost to air condition and heat your home has gone up, credit card minimum payments have doubled in some cases, and taxes have actually gone up,' he said."

+++++++++++++++++++++

Arizona Foreclosures

Over 800 Phoenix Defaults In July


The Arizona Republic has this report on Phoenix. "More Valley homeowners are in danger of losing their homes than at any point in more than a year. Last month, 837 homeowners got notices that they were at least three months behind on their mortgage payments. Those notices mean their mortgage firms are getting ready to evict them and auction off their houses on the courthouse steps."

"This is just the beginning. Tom Ruff of Phoenix-based data firm Information Market, which tracks the foreclosures, said that by year-end trustee sales could be climbing by 100 a month. In June, there were 776."


Interesting Anecdote

"Here's one example. Folks in my neighborhood paid $208k for a house in 2002. This spring it was listed for $217. Two months later they move out and a new realtor lists it at $179k but this time it's the bank selling the house. Meanwhile a smaller house one block over sits on the market all summer long at $205k, then $200k, then $195k, then $185k (paid $180k also in 2002). The bank actually made enough of a price cut to move the house, the other owner just makes little cuts, but he did eventually sell the house.


http://www.rense.com/general73/hous.htm


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  #8  
Antiguo 02-sep-2006, 12:54
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O sea, que lo de EEUU es ya no oficial, sino oficialísimo... ¡Buen comienzo de curso! Tochovista, a lo mejor no andas tan desencaminado como piensas.


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  #9  
Antiguo 02-sep-2006, 13:19
Viviendo Digno Viviendo Digno esta en línea ahora
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...
Dice que el incremento en el precio de las viviendas ha sido el menor de los últimos 11 años. Que ha caído las ventas en un 11.2% respecto al último año, y que el stock de viviendas sin vender alcanzó los niveles más altos desde 1993. La caída en la demanda está hudiendo la industria de la construcción. El número de refinanciaciones ha aumentado mientras que el número de nuevas hipotecas ha bajado. Después habla de como puede afectar a la economía del país (consumo) y de que zonas pueden verse afectadas (las que subieron más). Y sigue comentando cosas varias. Finalmente comenta que los que realizan predicciones no creen todavía que esto puede acarrear una recesión. Pero que toda la gente del sector inmobilario está esperando que no sea muy largo el camino hasta tocar suelo XD (vamos que desean que no dure mucho por cuanto más dure mayor ostión , es decir que están acojonados)

Eso está pasando aquí. Quería mencionar que esta mañana los coches de mi barrio han aparecido TODOS con panfletos de una agencia de esas de refinanciacion... Y supongo que mi barrio no sera el unico de España que amanece así.

La construccion se hunde y la gente cada vez mas endeudada y con las peores condiciones (intereses mas altos, generalmente) que esas agencias proporcionan. Estoy seguro que lo que decis que pasará es cierto. Lo que no se es si será en Octubre...


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Antiguo 04-sep-2006, 13:10
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Si se pincha la burbuja inmobiliaria, pierde la banca

Los bancos norteamericanos ven con creciente preocupación el enfriamiento de las especulaciones con bienes raíces. Ocurre que el fenómeno venía deparándoles buenos negocios desde 2001.


Los vaivenes negativos de ese mercado comienzan a afectar a los bancos, hoy más expuesto que en muchos años al riesgo de una burbuja en contracción. Buena parte del peligro radica en que la marea especulativa ha durado más cinco años.

Normalmente, una reducción de precios inmobiliarios genera temores a retrasos y ceses de paso en la franja hipotecaria. Pero, hoy, la inquietud fundamental de los bancos radica en menor demanda de crédito nuevo, o sea una merma de utilidades por simple intermediación.

Antes de aparecer la burbuja de bienes raíces, su peso en los activos bancarios era alrededor de 25% (2000), según cifras del Sistema de Reserva Federal. En junio último era 33,5%, el máximo en varios años. La contracción que viene notándose desde entonces coincide con el alza de intereses y, en paralelo, un mercado saturado en tarjetas de crédito.


http://www.mercado.com.ar/mercado/ve....asp?id=348725


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