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Antiguo 25-may-2006, 10:20
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Lean, lean

http://www.olis.oecd.org/olis/2006doc.nsf/43bb6130e5e86e5fc12569fa005d00 4c/857e92111575744fc1257106002d97 b6/$FILE/JT00197301.PDF

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Antiguo 26-may-2006, 17:03
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Algunos "highlights" del documento:

• A number of elements in the current situation are unprecedented: the size and duration of the current real house price increases; the degree to which they have tended to move together across countries; and the extent to which they have disconnected from the business cycle.

• While concerns have been expressed in several quarters about high housing prices, the evidence examined here suggests that overvaluation may only apply to a relatively small number of
countries. However, the extent to which these prices look to be fairly valued depends in good part on longer-term interest rates, which exert a dominant influence on mortgage interest rates, remaining at or close to their current low levels.

• If house prices were to adjust downward, possibly in response to an increase in interest rates or for other reasons, the histórical record suggests that the drops (in real terms) might be large and that the process could be protracted, given the observed stickiness of nominal house prices and the current low rate of inflation. This would have implications for activity and monetary policy.

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Antiguo 26-may-2006, 17:13
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Major real house price cycles by country


Upturns Duration(quarters) Downturns Duration(quarters)

1970Q1-1974Q3: +27.5% 14
1976Q2-1978Q2: +28.6% 8 1978Q2-1986Q1:-32.2% 31
1986Q1-1991Q4: +134.8% 23 1991Q4-1996Q4:-18.3% 20
1996Q4-2004Q4: +114.2% 32

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Antiguo 29-may-2006, 16:32
Yudealf Yudealf está desconectado
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Fecha de Ingreso: 15-enero-2006
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28 Agradecimientos de 16 mensajes
Si los ciclos se repiten, vienen caidas de precio por año del 4% minimo, y sumando eso a la inflación nos metemos en 8-9 %.

Ahora en lugar de pensar en cuando van a empezar a caer los precios o cuanto van a bajar deberiamos de pensar en cuanto tiempo van a estar cayendo. Ya que es sabido por todos que la cuesta abajo YA a empezado...

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