Iniciado por carloszorro

Para el intradía no tiene mucho sentido el análisis de ciclos

Es muy sencillo prever las ondas de largo plazo, después de un ciclo bajista te fijas en la media de 200 sesiones, esperas que rompa al alza, esperas el pullback a la zona rota y ya tienes la onda 1 en desarrollo, lo ideal es entrar al comienzo de la 3 aprovechar el tirón e intentar salirse antes del comienzo de la 4, creo que es la estrategia que vengo predicando en el oro estos meses y pienso que va a dar resultado, veremos...

Iniciado por bertok

¿Cómo ves un posible rebote del IBEX35 hasta los 11000 (por donde pasa la MM200?

Iniciado por Samuel_five

¿y ahora en que honda estamos? (Lo pregunto en serio, no lo se ...)

An article written by University of Tennessee professor John R Garrett, "Monetary Policy and Expectations: Market-Control Techniques and the Bank of England, 1925-1931", which describes in exquisite detail the gold falsification measures undertaken by the Bank of England in the interwar period in order to impact interest rates in a favorable direction, performed with the full criminal complicity of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, may mean paranoid "gold bugs" could soon be forever absolved of their "tin hat" wearing status as outright gold, and other data, manipulation by a major central bank is now proven beyond doubt. The implications regarding the possibility of comparable deceitful and treasonous acts by modern central bankers are staggering.

The Bank of England depleted its open-market portfolio by secretly sterilizing large gold inflows. Thereafter interest rates were influenced by manipulating reported gold flows.... A gold flow falsification was over two-thirds as effective as an open-market operation.

Falsifying critical gold data worked for Britain 70 years ago. Is it working now too? And is the BOE alone, or is Bernanke taking advantage of the Bank of England's experience? To be sure, the world was different with the Gold Standard the bedrock of monetary policy. Yet are the similarities between then and now not greater than the differences? With the shadow economy exposed as hinging on the investing community's desire to go with the prevailing "valuation" lie (a reason why the shadow economy in broad terms will take many years to return, if ever) the core asset is and always will be gold.

And yet the main question remains: why did the Bank of England openly and flagrantly manipulate critical data? Why did it mislead the citizens of the country it was supposed to serve? And if this happened in the past is it happening now? Is this the reason why the Federal Reserve is so opposed to exposing itself to public scrutiny and audits? If the BOE was engaging in outright fraud in the 1925-1931 period, why would today be any different?

Garett's mesmerizing report, published in the September 1995 issue of Monetary Policy and Expectations, has oddly not received much if any public notice, with not a single mention of the article or its implication in either the blogosphere or the mainstream arena. This is very unusual as Garret's disclosures would lend vast credence to not just gold bugs' claims that there is blatant (ongoing) gold data manipulation, but that Central Banks regularly engage in outright deception when it comes to achieving desired monetary policy results. To wit:

Montagu Norman, the Governor of the Bank of England... engaged in a large-scale deception that greatly over-stated the size of the effective open-market portfolio, understated the size of the gold stock, and misstated the size and even the direction of gold flows.

Not only that, but Garrett provides a direct link between secret gold market operations by the BOE and accumulation of US Treasuries: a critical concept not just in interwar Britain but more so currently, when faced with the need to finance trillions in budget deficits, the market is poised to decline by 25%+ should the US government experience a failed auction. Oh, and guess who was complicit in the BOE deception, and was used by the British central bank as a trading conduit? Why, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, of which Tim Geithner was president from 2003 to 2009.

Norman sold pound-denominated securities to sterilize the additional bank reserves created by the gold inflow. He simultaneously sold gold for dollars, lowering the Bank's reported gold stock, and bought U.S. Treasury bills with the proceeds. He also had all transactions carried out on the New York market by the New York Federal Reserve Bank so that they could not be traced to the Bank of England. (see Figure 1) The U.S. Treasury bills were comingled with pound-denominated "other securities" in the Bank's published open-market portfolio and were assumed by the markets to have been pound-denominated securities. In one stroke the gold inflow and the decline in the open-market portfolio were ******. Bank Rate was kept at a very high level given the abysmal state of the economy, well over the level that would have prevailed under the Bank of England's prewar reaction ********.

Iniciado por carloszorro

Nada, el ciclo bajista del ibex no ha finalizado, es totalmente diferente al del oro, onda c

Habría que esperar para poner en marcha una estrategia de largo plazo en ciclo alcista, que vuelva a situarse por encima de la MM200, mientras tanto, bajista

Iniciado por bertok

Gracias.

Tengo claro que está bajista (al menos le falta un 10% de caída). Lo preguntaba por si era probable que subiera a hacer pull back a la MM200.

¿Es común en la Teoría de Elliot?

Iniciado por carloszorro

Un gráfico teórico de combinación entre elliot y MM2OO

El pullback me refería de arriba a abajo, la media móvil está un poco retorcida, las prisas

Iniciado por Deudor

Mis análisis con los metales preciosos los hago en base a la demanda mundial. Con la población gitana y negra en el mundo creciendo, la demanda está asegurada.

Iniciado por carloszorro

Un gráfico teórico de combinación entre elliot y MM2OO

El pullback me refería de arriba a abajo, la media móvil está un poco retorcida, las prisas

Iniciado por bertok

Si el IBEX35 rebota hasta los 10800 - 11000 y luego se gira hacia abajo, es un buen punto de entrada.

Gracias