Recent developments have, perhaps, increased the risk of secession (however modestly),
as well as the urgency of addressing it as a possible scenario.

the economic
difficulties faced by some euro area economies (and the association made between those
difficulties and the euro), the rigors of the Stability and Growth Pact5, and the impact of EMU on
the Member States’ room for manoeuvre in economic policy6 at a time of severe financial crisis
are all additional reasons why the possibility of secession from the EU or EMU, and its
implications, are worth examining.

in conjunction with the difficulties faced by some of them
in steering clear of excessive budgetary deficits and in complying with their Stability and Growth
Pact obligations at a time of acute financial crisis suggest that, however remote,8 the risk of a
non-compliant Member State being expelled from the EU or EMU is still conceivable.

Iniciado por visillófilas pepitófagas

Sólo es un análisis técnico legal.

Iniciado por spam

Tienes toda la razón, Visi. Y este estudio debería haberse realizado allá cuando Maastricht, cuando se concibió y formalizó el SME. Pero el hecho de que aparezca en este momento da mala espina, da sensación de haber sido encargado dadas las circunstancias.

Esto hay que menearlo. A ver si lo publican el Cotizalia o en el Confidencial, que más de una vez han publicado documentos de esta índole. Publicaron traducidos sendos informes de Credit Suisse, Société Générale y JP Morgan, que yo recuerde. Así que ojalá difundan esto también; aunque un informe contemplando "soluciones finales", con el membrete del BCE, parece un poco más fuerte.

Iniciado por visillófilas pepitófagas

Parece que, legalmente, no te puedes salir por tu cuenta y riesgo ni te pueden echar de una patada: tiene que haber una negociación para la salida del euro y de la UE de la forma menos traumática para las partes. Y una vez consumada, el país saliente podría seguir usando el euro, pero probablemente con algún tipo de acuerdo.

Naturally, while consensual euroisation might be a possibility in some cases (following a Member State’s voluntary withdrawal from the EU and EMU with the consent of its fellow Member States and following an amendment of the treaties) this need not necessarily be so in other cases (where a Member State has been expelled from the EU and EMU)

Abstract

This paper examines the issues of secession and expulsion from the European Union (EU) and Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). It concludes that negotiated withdrawal from the EU would not be legally impossible even prior to the ratification of the Lisbon Treaty, and that unilateral withdrawal would undoubtedly be legally controversial; that, while permissible, a recently enacted exit clause is, prima facie, not in harmony with the rationale of the European unification project and is otherwise problematic, mainly from a legal perspective; that a Member State’s exit from EMU, without a parallel withdrawal from the EU, would be legally inconceivable; and that, while perhaps feasible through indirect means, a Member State’s expulsion from the EU or EMU, would be legally next to impossible. This paper concludes with a reminder that while, institutionally, a Member State’s membership of the euro area would not survive the discontinuation of its membership of the EU, the same need not be true of the former Member State’s use of the euro.

Iniciado por spam

Tienes toda la razón, Visi. Y este estudio debería haberse realizado allá cuando Maastricht, cuando se concibió y formalizó el SME. Pero el hecho de que aparezca en este momento da mala espina, da sensación de haber sido encargado dadas las circunstancias.

Esto hay que menearlo. A ver si lo publican el Cotizalia o en el Confidencial, que más de una vez han publicado documentos de esta índole. Publicaron traducidos sendos informes de Credit Suisse, Société Générale y JP Morgan, que yo recuerde. Así que ojalá difundan esto también; aunque un informe contemplando "soluciones finales", con el membrete del BCE, parece un poco más fuerte.