La hipótesis PIGS corre el riesgo de materializarse para placer de euroescépticos


Entre los analistas se da por hecho la quiebra por culpa de estos Portugal, Irlanda, Grecia y España

Ramón Aymerich | Barcelona | 14/12/2009 | Actualizada a las 02:57h |

Economía

En el 2001 Jim O'Neil, economista en Goldman Sachs, acuñó el acrónimo BRIC (Brasil, Rusia, India y China) para designar al grupo de países pobres con mayor capacidad de crecimiento y, llamados, por tanto, a representar un papel determinante en la economía del futuro. El 13 de mayo del 2008, un economista de posición más modesta, Andrew Clare, profesor de la Cass Business School de Londres y presidente de la consultora Phatom, puso en circulación el acrónimo PIGS (Portugal, Irlanda, Italia, Grecia y España) para referirse al grupo de países de la zona euro más inflacionistas y con una situación fiscal más comprometida.

La idea fue recogida primero en The Sunday Times y más tarde en Newsweek, pero no fue hasta que Financial Times la hizo suya en una pequeña nota editorial, "Pigs inmuck" (cerdos en el estiércol), en octubre del 2008, que despertó el interés de los países implicados, pero por encima de todos de España. Habían pasado seis meses de las elecciones y la economía española se deslizaba hacia la recesión. La nota culminaba una serie de artículos críticos del Financial Times hacia la economía española y su sistema financiero. Pero añadía algo de cosecha propia que irritó al lector español. Refiriéndose al acrónimo PIGS, el periódico señalaba que "es un apodo peyorativo, aunque refleja en gran medida la realidad".

El artículo de origen (que puede consultarse en Fathom Financial Consulting con el título de "Pigs might fly") utilizaba el símil de los cerdos voladores, que en inglés alude a algo insólito o altamente improbable. ¿Cuál era la tesis del artículo? Esencialmente, Andrew Clare construía una simulación en la que calculaba cuál sería la prima de riesgo (spread, o diferencial en relación con el bono alemán a dos años) de la deuda de estos países en el caso de que dejaran de formar parte de la zona euro. El país que resultaba peor parado era Grecia, que veía dispararse ese diferencial de 0,4 puntos a 1,3 puntos. E inmediatamente detrás aparecía España, cuyo diferencial saltaba de los 0,3 puntos a 1,2 puntos. Lo mismo ocurría, aunque en menor grado, con Portugal, Irlanda e Italia. Lo sorprendente de la tesis es, precisamente, su cumplimiento. El viernes 4 de diciembre el diferencial de la deuda griega alcanzaba ese máximo, una vez que se difundieron las elevadas cifras de deuda en el país. Sólo 48 horas después, y a raíz de una nota de Standad & Poor's en la que se advertía de una posible rebaja de la calificación de la deuda española, el diferencial tomaba el camino alcista. Por fortuna, sólo por unas horas.

Lo que hace unos meses era sólo una intuición –que la deuda pública de los estados iba a inundar el mercado y este iba a reaccionar con desdén– no ha hecho más que ganar terreno en unos mercados que se nutren, en este caso, de la percepción exterior. Este viernes, Standard Bank daba por hecho que Grecia e Irlanda pueden abandonar la zona euro en el 2010 si no son objeto de una intervención de urgencia por parte del resto de los miembros de la Unión Europea. Crédit Suisse, por su parte, destacaba "la vulnerabilidad" de la economía española. La hipótesis PIGS, la extraña parábola sobre el flanco débil de la zona euro, parece querer hacerse realidad.

Ventas masivas de deuda británica

El Reino Unido no se salva de la desconfianza. A diferencia de Irlanda, que ha empezado a recortar aspectos clave de su sistema de bienestar para cuadrar sus cuentas públicas, el Gobierno de Brown mantiene la política expansiva de los últimos meses. La semana pasada los inversores empezaron a desprenderse de deuda.

the real value of their euro-denominated debts will simply rise in relation to the "new drachma/ escudo/ punt/ peseta" or whatever is invented to replace the single currency.

In Spain, the replacement of the peseta with the euro played its part in unprecedented boom years that generated a lethal property bubble. The sharpness of the downturn since the global financial crisis struck has been shocking. Spain's unemployment rate has hit 19.5% – twice the EU average. There are now four million people out of work. More than a million homes have no breadwinner.

Spain is also the only major world economy still in recession, having suffered seven continuous quarters of negative growth. Even the government sees the economy shrinking further this year. Across the country, ordinary Spaniards are struggling to adjust.

As a 16-year-old school-leaver eight years ago, Roberto Montoya used to earn the equivalent of more than £1,000 a month, working in a provincial factory that made doors for the flourishing construction industry. Last week, as he leaned on the hoe given to him by the council in Villacañas, south of Madrid, to scrape away at the weeds on a stretch of wasteland, he recalled the good times. "It was so easy to find a job here in Villa*cañas," he said. "The whole country wanted new doors for all the new houses that were being built, so we all ended up working overtime shifts on Saturdays as well."

When Spain's housing bubble burst two years ago just as the global credit crisis hit, Montoya and many of his co-workers were sacked and now, at 24, he has a mortgage, a three-year-old child and no job prospects.

With no possibility of devaluation within the eurozone, which would be a short cut to dealing with Greece's debt mountain and becoming more competitive, George Papandreou, the Greek prime minister, would seem to have little choice but to follow those instructions.

But on his return to Greece from what became a euro crisis summit last week, Papandreou complained bitterly of the "timidity" of the reaction by Brussels to the speculators. "Greece is not a political or an economic superpower to fight this alone," Papandreou told his cabinet. Neither are Spain, Portugal or Italy. And it is easy to see why the political establishments of the Club Med countries are running scared of an austerity drive against their own populations.
On the streets of Madrid, Lisbon and Rome, as in Athens, the mood of anger is growing and the fight to hold on to hard-won and, some would say, generous, entitlements is already beginning.

Greek unions, among the strongest on the continent, have vowed to fight the "tsunami of attacks on workers". The first in a string of strikes last week included a 24-hour walkout by civil servants who noisily took to the streets with banners proclaiming "strikes and sit-ins will be our answer to austerity".

In an almost certainly doomed attempt to impose cuts without pain, the Spanish Socialist prime minister, José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, has made "social cohesion" the priority of his anti-crisis policy. That, in Spanish terms, means avoiding a standoff with the unions.

But the unions have called for mass demonstrations against a plan to raise the retirement age – on average, 61 – in the first hint of labour unrest since the government unveiled its austerity measures. Nationwide rallies have been convened over two weeks, starting on 23 February, in about 10 cities.

Half the Spanish workforce have permanent contracts that make them difficult and expensive to sack, while the other half are self-employed, unemployed or subsist on a fragile round of temporary contracts. Imposed labour reform would probably lead to a general strike.

As a result of the standoff, the employment reforms that Spain's central bank chairman, Miguel Fernández Ordóñez, has called for stubbornly refuse to appear. Unions and employers insist they are working on an agreement. But Zapatero, who lacks an absolute majority in parliament, is refusing to embrace an agenda of savage cuts and seems determined to keep both the bond markets and the unions happy. "That's simply impossible," said Lorenzo Bernaldo de Quirós, an economist at Freemarket International Consulting in Madrid. "I'm very *pessimistic."

It was arguably the desire to please everyone that saw Zapatero announce a hike in spending on unemployment benefit within days of his finance minister, Elena Salgado, presenting an austerity plan that had calmed the markets.


Mass demonstrations in Lisbon have already begun. On 5 February, more than 50,000 civil servants protested against a pay freeze.

A general strike is planned in Italy on 12 March to protest against the growing number of layoffs and the mother of all political struggles may be about to begin over the use of Cassa Integrazione, a national fund to which employees and firms contribute.

Cash from the fund is used during downturns to pay part of the wages of staff sent home as factories reduce hours or shut down temporarily.

As the crisis has unfolded, and the value of the euro has plummeted in relation to the dollar, the eurozone has found itself confronted with a stark dilemma:

1) Should Brussels and member states such as Germany act to bail out economies such as Greece (or further down the line Portugal, or Spain), and risk creating a possible moral hazard by removing the incentive for countries to rein in their own spending?

2)Or should the debtors be told to shape up and fend for themselves?
There is little doubt that a serious run on the euro would be countered with financial assistance for countries targeted by speculators.

But for the time being the talk from Brussels and the European Central Bank in Frankfurt is tough. According to Jean-Claude Trichet, the ECB's president: "Euro members drew down their benefits in advance – 'ex ante' – when they joined EMU [European monetary union] and enjoyed very easy financing for their current account deficits. They cannot expect 'ex post' help if they get into trouble later. These are the rules of the club."

But as the Club Med economies, in three cases led by centre-left governments, attempt to inflict real pain on the very types of people who voted them in, there is a real danger that those rules will be unenforceable.

Iniciado por >> 47 <<

Portugal, Irlanda, Grecia y España amenazan el planeta
By Sean O'Grady desde Nueva Zelanda. 8/02/10

[...]

When Spain's housing bubble burst two years ago....

[...]

A ver si Elenita se pasa también a visitar The Guardian cagando leches, que estos siguen lanzando pastelitos de advertencia ante la que se avecina.

Europe's south refuses to downsize without a fight | World news | The Observer
14/02/10
Helena Smith in Athens,
Giles Tremlett in Madrid,
Tom Kington in Rome,
and Julian Coman


Ya se veía y yalodecíayo parafraseando a Krugman en enero'09: es menos traumático devaluar la libra, que mantenerse en la urozona y devaluar millones de salarios via despido y recontratación. ¿O no?