Iniciado por b_rvc

Perdonar que me entrometa.

El problema principal no es ser consciente de la situación actual o saber de economía, que es un problema menor comparado con el saber como actuar (y acertar) frente a los problemas que se plantean.

Si sabes lo que va a pasar pero no sabes como actuar frente a ello (teoría vs practica) estamos en una situación similar incluso más jodida, porque llevas esperando el golpe un tiempo y sufres.

El saber actuar marca la diferencia, y muy poca gente sabe como actuar, y mucha menos sabiéndolo se decide a actuar. Lo normal es jugar el rol de espectadores ante la debacle, regodeandonos diciendo: "Eso ya lo dije yo", o dando consejos de como salir pero no llevándolos uno mismo a cabo, porque no son fáciles de ejecutar, requiere tomar decisiones que podrían ser equivocadas.

El saber lo que viene y avisar, no nos libra de sus consecuencias. Nos libra actuar de manera adecuada. Y yo, personalmente, no tengo ni idea de como hacerlo, salvo las que te dicta el sentido común y no la economía o la antesala de la catastrofe (no tengas deudas, ahorra, etc...). Afrontar "La catastrofe en cifras" solo con sentido común es condición necesaria pero no suficiente.

Perdonar si no es el sitio para la reflexión.

Iniciado por juancarlosb

En el blog sí que lo ha dicho. Los que tengan muchas deudas serán los grandes damnificados por el proceso.

Iniciado por Ladrillo Mortal

Los funcionarios NO crean riqueza, son una manifestación de la misma.

Iniciado por Indignado

Pregunta para usted o quien lo sepa :

Una devalución necesaria de un 35% (o 50% como apunta pacomer) significaria a la vez un aumento de la deuda de los hipotecados.

Pero no significaria también un aumento en la deuda publica?

Iniciado por Indignado

Pregunta para usted o quien lo sepa :

Una devalución necesaria de un 35% (o 50% como apunta pacomer) significaria a la vez un aumento de la deuda de los hipotecados.

Pero no significaria también un aumento en la deuda publica?

Iniciado por SNB4President

En la entrevista, una de las cosas que dijo Edward que más sorprendió a los entrevistadores fue que se tendría que hacer una ley para perdonar la mitad de la deuda a los hipotecados, puestos en el escenario de que al fin los bancos y hamijos inmobiliarios se limpiaran y aceptaran una bajada de precio de la vivienda de un 50%.

German exports fell for the first time in four months in August, giving additional confirmation that the economic recovery of Europe’s largest economy remains “fragile”.

Sales abroad, adjusted for working days and seasonal swings, dropped back 1.8 p...ercent from July, when they climbed a revised 1.7 percent. Exports were down 20 percent from a year earlier.

Imports rose 1.1 percent in August from July, when they increased 0.1 percent. The trade surplus narrowed to 8.1 billion euros from a revised 14.1 billion euros in July. The surplus in the current account, the measure of all trade including services, was 4.6 billion euros, down from a revised 11.4 billion euros in July.

This news follows yesterdays rather more positive data on the industrial output front, which showed output was up in August.

The German government is also marginally more optimistic, since it forecast this week that the economy will shrink between 4 percent and 5 percent this year, as compared with a 6 percent projection in April,.

Nevertheless, and despite her recent electoral victory, Angela Merkel's room for maneuver is limited by the fact that Germany has been steadily racking up debt to tackle the crisis. Only today the Federal Statistical Office have said that the deficit in the overall public budget increased to euro 57.2 billion in the first six months of this year from euro 6.9 billion a year earlier as spending rose sharply (8.1%) and revenue declined (1.7%). No figure was given as a proportion of gross domestic product, but it must be a little over 5%.

So, while the mood in Merkel's Berlin headquarters was naturally jubilant, the euphoria will not last too long, especially since things are not going to be anything like as simple as they may seem at first sight. The problem, of course, is an economic and not a political one. Simply put, Germany’s apparent recovery from recession may have come "just in time" to see Angela re- elected, but the good economic news may not last much longer than today.

Europe's Economies Buoyant But Not Ebullient?

While talk of a Eurozone recovery continues unabated following a recent heavy slew of data, including the business surveys for September and the summer consumer spending numbers from France, which tend to suggest upside momentum. The data continue to support the idea of continuing recovery in the third quarter of 2009 but a more careful examination suggests that the German economy is not building up as much underlying momentum as was prviously hoped, and that sustaining this timid growth into 2010, especially as government stimulus programmes are pulled back, may prove to be hard work.

In France, the latest household consumer data pointed to 1% monthly falls in spending in both July and August as a rebound in inflation and further job losses continued to weigh on consumption. The untick in French inflation while price index numbers remain lodged in negative territory in Spain, Ireland, Finland and even Germany, constitutes just one of the rapidly looming headaches for the ECB.

The weaker French consumption trend was, however, offset by a fairly solid performance in both the industrial and service sectors, with the PMIs powering above the critical 50 level. Similar improvements were not, however, matched in Germany, where both the IFO survey and the PMIs came in below expectations. So France, far from being a harbinger of things to come, may well turn out to be an exception in a region characterised by stagnation (at best) or continuing sharp contraction (Ireland, Finland, Spain).

Just this cautiousness about the fagility of the recent stabilisation in the Eurozone was underlined by Bundesbank President, Axel Weber in an interview with Market News. Mr Weber was at pains to stress that he still considers the current level of interest rates to be appropriate and that it is still far too early “to exit the currently extremely loose monetary policy.” He also warned that the recovery will be “very sluggish”. Mr Weber placed considerable emphaisis on the behaviour of bank credit, stating he did not expect any turnround in the present decline before mid-2010. Clearly this is likely to be the decisive indicator for the ECB to begin withdrawing liquidity. “As we come out of this crisis and as the economy recovers and as the credit cycle turns, I think we do have an obligation to decisively counter long term inflation risks,” he said.


Germans Get Ready To Tighten Your Seatbelts

If we come to examine the German situation in more detail, then we can see that M. Merkel's room for manoeuvre is going to be extremely limited indeed. Economic growth managed to scrape together a 0.3% increase in the second quarter, but this was driven by exceptional measures of 85 billion euros to lift spending and subsidize jobs, measures which surely helped keep unemployment below levels in many other OECD economies, even while the economy suffered the hammer blows of its worst post-World War II recession. However, the positive feedback impact from so much government spending can't continue like this, and Angela Merkel knows it, and she she also knows that it is either pain now or pain later, then my bet is she will use the political capital accruing from the first post election year to put the German house in order, in the hope of being able to offer some tax-cut based upside in the second half of her mandate.

That is to say, if you are hoping for some more German consumer expansion tow to help pull your own local economy out of the mire, then I suggest you forget about it right now.

Q2 GDP Growth A Statistical Quirk?

First off, the 0.3% growth obtained in the second quarter was actually the outcome of quite a complicated statistical calculation. As is illustrated in the chart (see collection) the small final balance is actually obtained after cancelling out two much larger elements, the inventory run down (which subtracted 1.9 percentage points from the final total) and net exports which (which added 1.6 percentage points, where the positive balance was produced by a much larger drop in imports than the drop in exports).

As should be obvious it is very hard to attach too much importance to the fact that houshold consumption added 0.4 percentage points when there are such large percentage swings going round in the background, and the fact that the trade impact was achieved by having exports down 1.2% on the quarter while imports were down 5.1% only adds to the lack of conviction which can be put behind the idea that "Germany has returned to growth", even though this headline perhaps has sold more papers than any other over the last two months.


In fact as should be abundantly clear from the charts in the accompanying set, the sharp fall in exports was largely halted in the second quarter, while the fall in imports continued, but it is stretching the point a bit to call this a return to growth.

But with the stimulus programme coming steadily off from this point on, unemployment looks certain to jump and consumer spending to drop as we enter 2010, and with many companies continuing to warn of a credit crunch, while debt remains at very high levels, policy makers would seem to be left with few options to counter a double dip should there be no sharp upturn in world trade.