Edward Hugh - Hilo oficial - Página 10

Eddy · #91 (**permalink**) 22-sep-2009, 13:19

Conclusión de D. Edward: sobran 5 millones de ejpañoles (oriundos o inmigrantes).

Yo: más familiares y hamijos, lo dejamos en 10 millones

(Ver comentarios)

Three Million Unsold Properties In Spain?

Yes, three million. That was the conclusion reached in the 2009 annual report on the Spanish property market prepared by Madrid-based real estate analysts R. R. de Acuña & Asociados. The report is described by Sunday Times Spanish Property Doctor columnist Mark Stucklin as one of the most influential annual reports on the sector, so the conclusions are hardly to be sneezed at, indeed the assumptions made in the calculations appear on the surface to be entirely plausible. In fact, having read the summary of the report in this article here, Variant Perception's Jonthan Tepper wrote to me to ask whether I thought we were being "dire enough". Yep. Sufficient unto the day is the direness thereof.

According to the estimates of R. R. de Acuña & Asociados - as outlined in the Expansion article - there are currently 1.67 millon flats and houses on the market and looking for a buyer in Spain. To this number need to be added the 327,350 properties under construction but still unfinished, together with the 1.098 millon for which planning permision has been granted and which now have two years - by law - to be completed. No half measures here. Whatsmore, the 1.098 million with planning permission have already been allocated a credit line of 52.947 billion euros by the Spanish banking sector. So adding everything up between them Spanish estate agents, banks, savings banks and private investors are now holding a grand total of something like 3.1 million properties, all of them looking for that ever so elusive buyer.

Another interesting conclusion is that 75% of existing builders will simply go out of business in the next five years. Mark Stucklin - on his Spanish property buff blog - gives us what he calls a a "bulleted summary" of the main points in the report. Personally I would only add two further points of my own.

Firstly the estimate of 25% unemployment by the end of next year contained in the report may well be on the low side, especially if the Spanish government is running out of funding for the stimulus programmes. Spanish INEM employment department officials have already leaked estimates that if the Plan E type projects are not renewed, then we could see something like 700,000 additional unemployed in October and November of this year alone. If these warnings turn out to be realistic then my feeling is that we will hit 25% unemployment around Easter, and then start heading up towards 30%. We should break through the 30% level around the turn of 2010/11 or by the spring of 2011, depending on a lot of factors which are still hard to see at this point. And where will we stop? No idea at all, since this simply depends on when the Spanish citizenry decide they have had enough and a package of emergency measures are put in place. It is hard, given the way the eurosystem works, to see how a "short sharp shock" may be administered, but something of the kind will be needed, or the patient will simply arrive moribund on the operating table.

My second observation is merely anecdotal, but the Acuña & Asociados report places a lot of emphasis on the coastal situation, which has, to some extent, already been "factored in" by most participants, however quite by chance I have talked with a number of people in recent days who have stressed with me just how serious the situation is in the satellite towns around Madrid, built as they have been for Ecuadorians who never arrived, or Romanians who have already left. I think this element is yet awaiting a proper accounting, and the cost is unlikely to be small.

Summary by Mark Stucklin of R. R. de Acuña & Asociados 2009 Annual Report On The Spanish Property Market

* “There are no green shoots around here,” said Fernando Rodríguez y Rodríguez de Acuña, president of the company, describing the state of the Spanish property market during a press conference introducing the report.
* At end of 2008 the supply of property for sale or under construction was 1,623,042, of which roughly 580,000 were resales, 500,000 newly built but unsold, and 470,000 under construction and nearing completion.
* Annual demand estimated as follows: 233,000 in 2008, and 218,000 in 2009.
* That means there are some 1,6 million homes on the market, whilst demand in the next few years is expected to run at around 220,000 homes. At current levels of demand it will take 6 to 7 years for the real estate sector to recover. So it could take until 2016 for the market to digest the current property glut.
* Looking at the market for holiday homes on the coast, local demand was estimated at 42,000 in 2008, expected to fall to 40,000 in 2009, whilst foreign demand for holiday homes on the coast was 21,000 in 2008, falling to 20,000 in 2009.
* The report singles out the coast as one of the areas with the biggest glut of property, and therefore the biggest problem that will take the longest to resolve.
* Higher priced market segments are also a problem; more expensive market segments are expected to take more than 6 years to clear, compared to 3 years or less at the cheaper end.
* The only way developers and banks will get rid of the glut of property in the medium term is selling at a loss.
* After falling 1.83% in 2008, overall prices will fall 9.55% in 2009, 9.32% in 2010, and 4.81% in 2011, a cumulative fall of just under 25.5% in nominal terms.
* After falling 3.32% in 2008, coastal prices will fall 11.28% in 2009, 7.98% in 2010, and 4.31% in 2011, a cumulative fall of 27% in nominal terms.
* Housing starts will fall to between 50,000 and 75,000 a year in the next few years, down from more than 700,000 in 2005. “The market situation doesn’t justify more building, and anyway the banks won’t lend money to build something that won’t sell,” said Fernando Rodríguez y Rodríguez de Acuña.
* Thanks to long lead times in the construction business, the full economic impact of the collapse in residential construction is yet to be felt. The darkest hour for the Spanish economy will come in the second half of 2010, when unemployment could reach 25%.
* Developers will go out of business in greatest numbers during 2010 and 2011. “It gets increasingly harder for developers to refinance with assets they either can’t sell or which are already mortgaged, and are increasingly devalued,” said Fernando Rodríguez y Rodríguez de Acuña, who predicts that 75% of developers will be wiped out in the next 5 years by a combination of too much debt, the market slump, and “bad management”.
* Recovery won’t come until 2013, by which time the sector will be just half the size it used to be, if that.

juancarlosb · #92 (**permalink**) 23-sep-2009, 23:09

Sigo con tu post, Eddy, ya que los comentarios de Edward son lo más jugoso.

Well, you may be right that the properties with planning permission may never be built, but I guess it is a little more complicated than simply signing a waiver, since the projects behind them are already funded and cancelling them would probably need a change in the law and a recognition that most of the builders scheduled to implement them are going to inexistance.

This recognition is still lacking it seems to me, as everyone continues to talk about gradual "recovery" - so you may be right, but the decision not to build them is likely to be quite a traumatic one, and has not been taken yet.

Also, remember that since government civil engineering works are going to be cut back in order to get the deficit under control over the next few years, this will effectively mean very little construction indeed in Spain over the next 5 years or so.

I'm not sure what you mean by catastrophic breakdown. I am simply saying Spain will now need to live from exports, and that since the whole country is in complete denial on this, the road from here to there will be long and hard.

The whole eurosystem will come under pressure from a combination of factors, including Spain, but that is a rather different story, and again, please note, I am NOT forecasting euro disintegration, quite the contrary, I expect another leg in the financial crisis as Latvia comes off the peg, and the Hungarian Forint slides lower and lower, while the EUC and the ECB have to face up to the real costs of funding the conversion of forex loans in the east and the extent of the property related losses that will need funding in Spain and Greece.

Ireland is, of course, largely factored in already, but it is the only one that is it seems to me.

We will ultimately emerge, leaner and fitter, but we will emerge, although we may have a difficult decade or so in between.

Aquí Edward responde a un comentario en el que se duda de que se vayan a construir el millón de viviendas que ya tienen licencia de obras y 52.000 milones de créditos concedidos.
Dice que la cosa es bastante más complicada que decir "no construyo y ya está", que el sector no lo tiene aún asumido porque aún hay esperanzas de que llegue la tan cacareada recuperación y les salve el culo.
Además comenta que el sector de la construcción se va a contraer todavía más debido a que la obra civil se va a restringir drásticamente por los recortes del gasto público.
Dice que no cree en una ruptura catastrófica y que lo que ocurre es que el país es inevitable que a partir de ahora viva de las exportaciones y que ahora mismo se está viviendo una negación colectiva de esta realidad. Esto provocará que el camino a recorrer sea mucho más largo y más duro.
Luego añade que no ve el euro desintegrándose y que vamos a una segunda fase de la crisis en la que el eurosistema se enfrentará a los enormes costes de la refinanciación de los créditos a los países del Este y las enormes pérdidas ocasionadas por el sector inmobiliario de España y Grecia.
Dice que Irlanda ya ha sido tenido en cuenta por Europa [en las pérdidas], pero que es, le parece, el único país. [No estoy muy seguro de que esto esté bien traducido, ruego confirmación de algún forero]
Para terminar dice que tenemos al menos una década muy difícil antes de salir de esta crisis.

luckybastardo · #93 (**permalink**) 23-sep-2009, 23:18

Iniciado por juancarlosb

Dice que Irlanda ya ha sido tenido en cuenta por Europa [en las pérdidas], pero que es, le parece, el único país. [No estoy muy seguro de que esto esté bien traducido, ruego confirmación de algún forero]
.

Confirmo. " Irlanda ha sido un pais tenido en cuenta por Europa (para las cuentas de la crisis) y parece que es el unico"

juancarlosb · #94 (**permalink**) 24-sep-2009, 00:41

Seguimos con otro comentario en sobre el post de Eddy

"I still don't go for the catastrophic breakdown you keep inferring here"

It's OK, Krugman officially declared yesterday, "they end of the world has been postponed".

Nobel Winner Krugman Says ?End of World Postponed? (Update3) - Bloomberg.com

The thing is, basically I wouldn't waste the time of day even browsing any analysis at this point that isn't backed by substantial global analysis, and especially of the imbalances, how they fuelled the last boom, and what will now replace them. Until we have this story sorted out, there simply won't get a general global recovery, since we still aren't clear who is going to do the buying.

The next stage here in Europe starts on Monday, as the new German government starts to get their deficit under control:

Germany will start exiting, without co-ordination of course, right after next week?s election

and the German economy enters a double dip:

Merkel, Steinmeier Face ?Mess? as Stimulus Peters out (Update1) - Bloomberg.com

Essentially, if it is obvious that if you have to have a hard time either now or later, while those in the South of Europe will always go for the second option, the Germans sometimes choose the first one.

The one million unbuilt properties only serves to dramatise the situation, like the children who weren't born to live in them due to the low fertility, the issue is, what will all the people who were programmed to build them (and those who would work in the bars and restaurants and car factories where they were going to spend their money) now going to do?

This is why we need to urgently build export oriented factories, to soak up the millions who are now left without gainful employment.

Population is undoubtedly the greatest downside risk for Spain in the mid term. Who would have imagined in 2000 that Spain's population could have gone from 40 to 46 million by 2008 (I could, not the exact numbers, but the general idea, this is what global macro is about) and who could imagine now that if we don't start to soak up the surplus labour now in new export driven jobs, then by 2015 we could be back down to 40 million again? I can.

The biggest risk to the Spanish economy comes from an eventual recovery elsewhere in Europe (higher interest rates, and jobs available elsewhere) BEFORE Spain has done anything to correct its problems.

Under such a population flight scenario, property wouldn't recover by 2020, or possibly 2025. A nightmare? Yes! Possible? Yes! Is anyone thinking of doing anything to avoid it? No!

Primero Edward cita a Krugman, que no es santo de su devoción, el cual ha declarado que "el fin del mundo se ha pospuesto".
Esta es también mi opinión, yo tampoco veo una catástrofe económica a nivel mundial.

Luego añade que los desequilibrios generados en el último boom aún no se han corregido. Todavía no se sabe quien va a comprar [se refiere al destino de las exportaciones a nivel mundial].

La economía alemana, y por ende la europea, comienza una nueva etapa el lunes, después de las elecciones, y él prevé un nuevo repunte de la recesión. Dice que se pueden afrontar los problemas ya o tratar de diferir su solución todo lo posible. Los alemanes lo quieren resolver ya y el Sur de Europa retrasar todo lo posible el enfrentarse a ello.
Yo no acabo de ver claro lo de la W en Alemania, pero es posible que Edward tenga razón.

Luego habla del millón de obras pendientes y que posiblemente no se construirán nunca, y se pregunta que será de todos los que iban a trabajar en ellas y los 1.5 empleos que se generan indirectamente por cada empleo creado en la construcción. También se refiere a que no hay gente en España para ocupar ese millón de viviendas.

Y se refiere a la necesidad de crear urgentemente industrias exportadoras, para colocar a millones de parados.

Luego habla de que el mayor peligro que pueda afrontar España es la posibilidad de que la población española, debido a la catastrófica situación económica, vuelva a bajar a 40 millones. [En el siguiente comentario amplía más esto].

El mayor peligro que podemos afrontar en España es que Europa se recupere y nosotros no. Las migraciones masivas entonces sucederían y en consecuencia el mercado inmobiliario no se recuperaría hasta 2020 o incluso 2025. Y añade:
¿Una pesadilla? ¡Sí!
¿Posible? ¡Sí!
¿Está pensando alguien en hacer algo para evitarlo? ¡No!

ronald29780 · #95 (**permalink**) 24-sep-2009, 00:51

Iniciado por juancarlosb

Seguimos con otro comentario en sobre el post de Eddy

Primero Edward cita a Krugman, que no es santo de su devoción, el cual ha declarado que "el fin del mundo se ha pospuesto".
Esta es también mi opinión, yo tampoco veo una catástrofe económica a nivel mundial.

Luego añade que los desequilibrios generados en el último boom aún no se han corregido. Todavía no se sabe quien va a comprar [se refiere al destino de las exportaciones a nivel mundial].

La economía alemana, y por ende la europea, comienza una nueva etapa el lunes, después de las elecciones, y él prevé un nuevo repunte de la recesión. Dice que se pueden afrontar los problemas ya o tratar de diferir su solución todo lo posible. Los alemanes lo quieren resolver ya y el Sur de Europa retrasar todo lo posible el enfrentarse a ello.
Yo no acabo de ver claro lo de la W en Alemania, pero es posible que Edward tenga razón.

Luego habla del millón de obras pendientes y que posiblemente no se construirán nunca, y se pregunta que será de todos los que iban a trabajar en ellas y los 1.5 empleos que se generan indirectamente por cada empleo creado en la construcción. También se refiere a que no hay gente en España para ocupar ese millón de viviendas.

Y se refiere a la necesidad de crear urgentemente industrias exportadoras, para colocar a millones de parados.

Luego habla de que el mayor peligro que pueda afrontar España es la posibilidad de que la población española, debido a la catastrófica situación económica, vuelva a bajar a 40 millones. [En el siguiente comentario amplía más esto].

El mayor peligro que podemos afrontar en España es que Europa se recupere y nosotros no. Las migraciones masivas entonces sucederían y en consecuencia el mercado inmobiliario no se recuperaría hasta 2020 o incluso 2025. Y añade:
¿Una pesadilla? ¡Sí!
¿Posible? ¡Sí!
¿Está pensando alguien en hacer algo para evitarlo? ¡No!

Bueno, en el último papel (15/09/09) sobre la coyuntura mundial el IWH NO habla de una vuelta a numeros rojos en Alemania:

http://www.iwh-halle.de/d/publik/presse/56-09.pdf

juancarlosb · #96 (**permalink**) 24-sep-2009, 00:59

Seguimos...

Well, it's pretty simple really, and nothing to do with fertility, except in the longer term, ie the babies who weren't born between 1975 and 1990. But as all the money was borrowed to do all the building, huge numbers of migrants were sucked in since Spain's labour force simply wasn't adequate. This was globalisation at work bigtime. But now the capital isn't coming in, and the building isn't being done, there are 5 million surplus to requirement workers, and this is why the unemplyment is surging so strongly. And the solution isn't for them all to go home, since the housing market will NEVER recover, and the debt could NEVER be paid off by the much smaller workforce.

I wrote this piece about Ireland a couple of years back, which sort of gets to the problem:

Edward.Hugh.Blog: Macroeconomic Adjustment in the Euro Area: Ireland and Italy

"Do you also expect some of those extra few millions of 'new spaniards' to pack up and go home? Don't you think they rather hang around on welfare in Spain then going back to impoverished LatAm villages?"

No, this isn't the point, I expect them to move on to France, Scandinavia, the UK - whichever countries recover first. The Latin American migrants all can have Spnaish nationality - and passports - after two years, the East Europeans are already EU citizens, and the Moroccans can move on to France, where most of them have relatives anyway.

"Don't you think they rather hang around on welfare"

Welfare, what welfare?? This isn't France, Germany, Holland or the UK you know. There is education and medical treatment free, and 420 euros a month maximum. Most of the migrants have families back home they need to send money to.

Edward le contesta a un lector que no entiende lo de la bajada de la población a 40 millones.
Le dice que el problema no tiene que ver con la fertilidad, sino con el hecho de que como todo el dinero que hemos pedido prestado fue para la construcción, necesitábamos trabajadores y vinieron emigrantes en masa. Pero ahora que el capital se ha esfumado sobran 5 millones de trabajadores, y la solución no es que se queden en casa, puesto que el mercado de la vivienda nunca se recuperará y es posible que la deuda nunca se pague debido a que la fuerza de trabajo será mucho menor.
Recomieda un artículo que escribió sobre Irlanda hace un par de años.

El lector le ha preguntado que como van a volver a Latinoamérica los emigrantes si pueden vivir del estado del bienestar en España.

Edward le contesta que los latinoamericanos se irán a los países de Europa que se recuperen, pues tendrán pasaporte español, los de Europa del Este pueden ir donde quieran y los marroquíes pueden pasar a Francia.

Es posible que no todos, pero no cabe duda que muchos de ellos tendrán la posibilidad de irse

Y sobre lo del estado del bienestar le dice:

¿Qué estado del bienestar? Esto no es Alemania, Francia, Holanda o el Reino Unido. Tenemos educación y sanidad gratuitas, y máximo 420 euros al mes. La mayoría de los emigrantes tienen familias en casa a las que necesitan enviar dinero.

juancarlosb · #97 (**permalink**) 24-sep-2009, 01:13

Acabo...

My biggest point on migrants is simply that since people simply didn't see them coming, how can they KNOW they won't go away again.

Of course we can all hope. I hope to live to be a hundred. But wouldn't it be useful to have some sort of rational ground for our expectation? This is what I am saying is missing. Meanwhile people are still talking of building yet more flats between now and 2015.

Sobre lo de los emigrantes dice que si la gente no sabía que iban a venir ¿cómo narices saben que no se van a ir?
Y luego se despacha con el wishful thinking:
"Uno puede esperarlo todo. Yo espero vivir 100 años. Pero, ¿no sería útil que nuestras esperanzas tuvieran algún fundamento racional?"

Luego un lector le pregunta sobre las implicaciones de la devaluación interna para España.

Well what we do know is that it won't be easy - just look at Latvia or Ireland. The question is, do we have any other alternative?

All this being said we are really rather whistling in the dark, since there is no clear plan, and at the end of the day it will all end up being pretty adhoc. Strong deflation is never either easy or comfortable, but this is the downside of having the Euro, and you can't take the upside, and then say you don't like the downside.

Dice que no es fácil, basta mirar a Irlanda o a Letonia, pero que no tenemos otra alternativa.
Dice que no tenemos plan y que una devaluación intensa siempre es difícil, pero que esa es la desventaja de estar en el euro, hay que estar a las duras y a las maduras.

juancarlosb · #98 (**permalink**) 24-sep-2009, 01:31

Iniciado por ronald29780

Bueno, en el último papel (15/09/09) sobre la coyuntura mundial el IWH NO habla de una vuelta a numeros rojos en Alemania:

http://www.iwh-halle.de/d/publik/presse/56-09.pdf

Bueno, yo tampoco veo la recesión en W en Alemania, ya veremos quien tiene razón.

Volem TV3 a Alacant · #99 (**permalink**) 26-sep-2009, 02:36

Este hilo es esencial.
No hay que perderlo de vista.

Saludos.

kaxkamel · #**100** (**permalink**) 26-sep-2009, 21:38

Iniciado por Volem TV3 a Alacant

Este hilo es esencial.
No hay que perderlo de vista.

Saludos.

y tanto.
lo subo porque me interesa

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