CEBR: House prices will rise next year
Simon Lambert, This is Money
10 August 2009


House prices will show modest increases next year as the property market bottoms out about 25% below the 2007 peak, a report by a leading group of economists claims.

The nosedive in property prices means that the market has almost hit its 'floor', according to economists from the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR).

It says prices will rise 2% next year and 3.5% in 2011.

A further 3% to 5% fall in prices could hit the market but the 'chronic undersupply' of housing and a predicted pick-up in mortgage lending in 2010 will prevent prices falling much further, the CEBR says.

Benjamin Williamson, one of the authors of the Consumer and Housing Prospects report, said: 'In the UK the concentration of people on this tiny island and shortage of supply of houses has created a house price floor which house prices won't go below.'

'We have always maintained that a shortage of housing supply in the UK will maintain a floor for prices.'

The CEBR has forecast that mortgage approvals will gradually increase from lows of 42,000 in 2008 and 43,000 this year, to 55,000 in 2010.

Williamson said this level would be enough to support modestly rising house prices, despite suggestions that if the pool of cash-rich buyers dries up or the low supply of property coming on to the market increases, the current revival will come to a halt.

While the CEBR suggests end of year property prices will rise steadily from next year, based on the Halifax index, it says that homes are unlikely to regain the £196,000 average peak until around 2015. It says the peak to trough fall in house prices from the third quarter of 2007 to the first quarter of 2010 will be 24%.

The group's forecasts suggest a 14.5% increase from an average of £152,000 at the end of 2009 to £174,000 at the end of 2013. The Halifax's average house price in July was £161,000, 5.5% higher than the 2009 end of year prediction.

›› Money Blog: How the property supply and demand debate is distorted

The report chimes with April's CEBR forecast that prices had 8 to 10% left to fall and could bottom out at the end of the year.

However, the difficulties in calling the future for property prices are highlighted by the group's previous forecasts. In August last year, before the banking crisis escalated, it said that prices would stop falling in the middle of this year and rise 30% by 2012, and at the start of 2008 it said that prices would fall 5.5% before climbing again in 2009.

The CEBR report follows a forecast from the National Housing Federation, qhich represents housing associations, that prices will rise 20% by 2014 , after falling 4.6% next year and then stabilising in 2011 with a 1.1% rise. The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors predicted last week that prices may show a modest increase in 2009.

Halifax's July report showed average property prices just 1% lower than at the start of the year, while Nationwide's July report showed prices were 1.3% higher than at the beginning of 2009.

Despite the more upbeat signs, many estate agents have remained relatively downbeat on the property market's immediate future. Upmarket London agent Cluttons has added its voice to those urging caution, saying that many of those who bought at the peak in 2007 will soon be coming off two-year tracker and fixed deals and discover difficulties in remortgaging.

The effect will be felt most by those on bargain tracker rates who have been paying only slightly more than, and in some cases less than, the Bank of England's 0.5% base rate. The estate agent says those suffering financial difficulties could finally be forced to sell, triggering a further 5% dip in prices.

James Hyman, residential sales partner at Cluttons, said: 'If we were to see a steady stream of properties coming onto the market now, it would help to keep prices stable, but there remains a 'wait and see' mentality, even from those falling into mortgage difficulties.

'There will come a point when people simply cannot hold on any longer and there is a real danger of this coming to a head in the autumn as people come off two year mortgage deals and realise they need to raise a significant amount of equity to keep their home.'

'Those already struggling to repay their home loans should look to get their property on the market as soon as possible, as the current level of demand has created a strong seller's market in many areas, which is likely to be short-lived.'

CEBR: House prices will rise next year | This is Money


Resumiendo: en UK los precios volverán a crecer a partir de 2010
Prevén una subida de precios del 14,5% hasta el 2013
Actualmente los precios son un 5,5% más altos de la predicción para final de 2009, lo que supone que la vivienda bajara’ hasta final de año para remontar en 2010

__________________

It's a pity you didn't buy your zulito in the outskirts of Manchester, isn't it?

__________________

pero no los de los pisos precisamente

__________________

http://www.burbuja.info/inmobiliaria...a-perdida.html


http://www.burbuja.info/inmobiliaria...britanica.html

Curioso. Otros estudios, incluso de bancos, predicen mas caidas en 2010 y 2011.

__________________

Unemployment jumps 220,000 to 2.4m
Jobless rate climbs to 7.8% of the workforce - the highest since 1996 - official figures show

UK unemployment jumps 220,000 to 2.4 million | Business | guardian.co.uk

Vamos, lo mismito, lo mismito que en Espein, que hay un stock de un millón de casas nuevas sin vender y a saber cuantas usadas.

__________________

Pero Uxo, te das cuenta de los precios que pones? Puedes hacer algunos números?
Casas de 200 m (no pisos) cuestan 180000 euros de media (números que son verídicos para la zona de UK en donde vivo) y con jardín. Estos números son similares en otras partes del país (menos 4 o 5 grandes ciudades con pisos más caros y pequeños).
Eso son 900 euros/m2 en un país mucho más rico, más densamente poblado y con menos espacio para nuevos edificios en las ciudades. En España aún están por encima de 2000 euros/m2. Calcula tu mismo lo que van a bajar.

__________________

Dónde!? Kendal???

Zulitos

Me quedo con 2 cortas líneas de la noticia que no se cumplen en España:


Ni en España hay una insuficiencia crónica de producto, ni las casas se venden aquí aún al módico promedio de unos 174000 euros (ni tampoco en Madrid se ganan los 50000 euros típicos de Londres).

En el fondo allí están en el false-bottom. Esa es otra de tantas predicciones que se lanzaron en este foro, basadas en el conocimiento histórico de la evolución de las burbujas, predicciones que hasta ahora se han ido cumpliendo al milímetro. Sospecho que los precios británicos reanudarán la caída en picado tras el false-bottom, porque aún están muy por encima de los fundamentales.

De España mejor no hablar :-)

__________________