A partir de 2011, y ya con bajadas incluso superiores al 50%, el precio de la vivienda no será un problema, y este foro se orientará a otras cosas. Hablar de vivienda sonará a antiguo y desfasado.

A partir de 2011 el gran, principal y único problema será el trabajo. Tener trabajo asegurado, de lo que sea, marcará tu vida, tu presente y tu futuro.

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¿Hay realmente alguna razón para esto?
¿Dependieron de la zona las subidas bidigitales?
¿Por zona industrial hundida entiendes toda España?
Si te refieres a que el esfuerzo para comprar en la calle serrano de madrid será mayor que para comprar en Seseña, vale. Pero si el piso en Serrano subió un 400% y el de seseña un 400%, la "vuelta" a la "normalidad" será la misma.
De hecho solo encuentro razones para que las caidas en zonas buenas sean mayores que las chungas, y es que los ricos suelen ser mejores cuidadores de su dinero y menos tendentes a coger cuchillos que se caen.
Dame razones "elementales" para que un piso en Serrano mantenga su precio.

De momento el hambre no es ningún problema para los acaparadores de tochos que todavía comen, pero...

Taiwan jobless at record high

Western Australia: Jobless rate rises rapidly - ABC News

South Korea: Record high number of jobless receive unemployment benefits

Hong Kong Jobless Rate Rises to Highest Since 2005 (Update1) - Bloomberg.com

...

Spain Housing Collapse Cuts Rents in Worst Glut Since 1950s - Bloomberg.com

July 22 (Bloomberg) -- Arancha Ibarra considers herself one of the lucky victims of Spain’s housing collapse.

After struggling to find a buyer for her renovated two- bedroom apartment in Madrid for two years, Ibarra found a tenant for 750 euros ($1,066) a month, becoming one of the 1.5 million second-home owners thrust onto the country’s rental market.

The number of properties for rent in Spain climbed 55 percent in the past two years to 3.3 million, the highest since the Ministry of Housing started collecting the data in 2004. Rents in cities, including Madrid and Barcelona, are falling for the first time in seven years with declines of as much as 8 percent, according to Madrid-based property research firm Idealista.com.

“Those who need to sell but can’t are being forced to lease,” said Fernando Encinar, co-founder and head of research at Idealista.com, Spain’s largest real estate Web site with 308,000 listings for rent and purchase. “We haven’t seen this number of properties for rent since the 1950s.”

Spain built about 29 percent of new homes in the European Union from 2001 to 2007, even as it represented just 9 percent of the population. The resulting glut of 1.5 million unsold houses and apartments sparked the end of a decade-long real estate and construction boom that accounted for about 20 percent of the country’s gross domestic product in 2007.

The ensuing housing slump has tipped the economy into the worst recession in 60 years with the unemployment rate climbing to 19 percent, the highest in the EU. Home sales fell by more than a third in the 12 months through May, the latest government data show.

Housing Boom

Rents in Madrid and Barcelona jumped 28 percent and 56 percent, respectively, in the five years to 2008, driven by a jump in house values. Home prices rose 120 percent from 1997 to 2007, pricing many Spaniards out of the market.

This year rents declined 4.2 percent to 12.3 euros a square meter in Madrid and 8 percent to 12.6 euros in Barcelona, Idealista reported.

After two years of trying to sell her 70 square meter (753 square foot) air-conditioned apartment in Madrid, Ibarra rented it after receiving just one offer of 162,273 euros, 33 percent below her asking price.

“The rent barely covers the mortgage, but doesn’t pay the council tax and maintenance,” she said during an interview in Madrid. “It was the best price I could get and I can’t afford to sell at a loss or leave it empty.”

Owners of vacant homes also have to pay a yearly tax that’s equal to 1 percent to 2 percent of the property’s value.

‘Sterile’ Assets

Spaniards aren’t the only ones saddled with empty homes. The nation’s banks lent about 318 billion euros to domestic real estate companies and also were forced to accept billions of euros of real estate assets in exchange for canceling debt with insolvent developers, according to Fernando Rodriguez de Acuna, president of R.R. de Acuna & Asociados, a Madrid-based industry research company founded in 1980.

“Those assets are sterile, or constantly falling in value, so the banks have to get them off of their books or else they will damage their balance sheets in coming years,” Acuna said.

Banco Santander SA, Spain’s biggest bank, together with its consumer unit Banco Espanol de Credito SA, has 4.1 billion euros of property assets after taking real estate from failing developers.

Santander put 1,800 homes up for sale in January and sold 500 of them as of May, a company spokesman said. He declined to provide a breakdown of the bank’s residential and commercial real estate assets.

Property Loans

Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA, the Spanish lender that bought 490 million euros of real estate in the first quarter, forecasts that will climb to 1 billion euros by the end of the year.
Caja Madrid, the country’s second largest savings bank, has about 600 homes for rent and is offering as many as 1,500 for sale at discounts of as much as 40 percent.

Acuna estimates the slump in the Spanish residential property market will last seven years, prolonging the recession until 2013.

“Recovery is going to depend on when people can purchase homes again, which in turn depends on employment,” Acuna said during an interview at his office in Madrid.

Acuna estimates the economy will contract by 4 percent in 2009 and 2010, by 2 percent in 2011, and 1 percent in 2012. Growth will be zero or minimal in 2013, he said.

The Spanish government has forecast that the economy will shrink by 3.6 percent this year and 0.3 percent in 2010, and then grow 1.8 percent and 2.7 percent in 2011 and 2012.

Sales Plunge

Joblessness in Spain may reach 20.5 percent by the end of 2010, according to estimates from the European Commission.

“Redundancy is having a huge impact on home sales, hence many people are turning to renting,” said Ben May, an economist at Capital Economics Ltd. in London. “Even people who still have jobs are clearly going to be worried and those that are in a position to buy are waiting for prices to fall.”

The International Monetary Fund expects Spanish property prices to drop 30 percent from their peak in 2006. They’ve already declined 7 percent, analysts at Citigroup Inc. estimate.

Irene Garcia is among about 2 million Spaniards who have joined the ranks of the unemployed in the past year. The 33- year-old ex-production assistant gets 700 euros a month in unemployment benefits and pays 400 euros a month to rent a room in a shared apartment. The good news is her rent is about to drop 50 percent.

Garcia, a native of Galicia who moved to Madrid three years ago, found a room in an apartment in the city center. It was empty for six months, prompting the owner to cut the rent to 200 euros per month.

No End to Crisis

“I’m getting the same living space in the same area and saving 50 percent,” Garcia said. “I don’t know when the crisis will end or how long I will be unemployed, but this gives me a lifeline of six months.”

Ibarra knows she’ll have to wait much longer than that for the market to recover and to be able to sell her home.

“It’s crystal clear that in its current state the market is going to take at least five years before we see things pick up again,” she said.

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Bueno, es lo que venimos diciendo desde hace mucho tiempo. Sin ir más lejos, la semana pasada decía yo aquí:

el PER (GRM) de la vivienda en España es altísimo (está aún sobre el 30 cuando debiera estar entre 15 y 18): esto significa que la rentabilidad es muy baja.

Ahora bien, como los alquileres están bajando también, eso tiende a arrastrar los precios de compraventa a la baja, ya que de otra manera, el GRM tiende a aumentar otra vez, con lo que la inversión en inmuebles sería aún más ruinosa.

Pues eso: una vez iniciada la espiral descendente, las cosas siguen el curso previsible.

Son números sencillos, pero que el 99% de los pisitófilos de este país desconoce. Posiblemente eso es lo que les permite seguir en el país de las fantasías húmedas.

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Iba a poner algo sobre el GRM, la evolución de los gastos añadidos, como impuestos y tasas locales y el desarrollo de la renta familiar disponible.

Sobre los pormenores, abajo pego un link a un hilo mio sobre el tema.

Por esto me voy a limitar a hacer unas pequeñas extrapolaciones:

a) viendo el panorama de la financiación local, se puede suponer que estos gastos anexos subirán

b) viendo el panorama de la situación laboral, dudo que veamos muchos aumentos en los proximos 5 años en este campo.

c) viendo el panorama de la financiación estatal, se puede deducir que algún que otro impuesto tambíen va a subir (vease la última subida de algunos impuestos indirectos)

d) ergo la la renta familiar disponible va a bajar

e) bajarán los alquileres brutos

f) bajarán los alquileres netos, más aun

g) se iniciará una espiral a la baja.

Topico nuncabajista: Vivienda=buena inversion

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