"El Producto Interior Bruto alemán registró su mayor descenso desde que comenzó a recopilarse el dato en 1970 por las bajas inversiones y el fuerte descenso de las exportaciones netas. En concreto, el PIB real del primer trimestre se contrajo un 3,8% respecto al cuarto trimestre de 2008, según las cifras publicadas el martes por la Oficina Federal de Estadística.

Se trata del cuarto descenso trimestral consecutivo del PIB, lo que respalda la previsión de que la mayor economía de Europa se contraerá un 6% este año. Los datos, ajustados a efectos de calendario y estacionales, están en línea con el PIB adelantado publicado el 15 de mayo.

La caída de la inversión y el brusco descenso de las exportaciones netas hicieron mella en la actividad económica al comienzo del año, mientras que el consumo privado aumentó ligeramente, según las cifras"

__________________

Alguien sabe explicar qué pasó exactamente hace un año con aquél repunte del PIB trimestral en el 1T08 de, creo recordar, el 1.5% (6% anualizado)?!?.

Fue el último suspiro de la vela antes de apagarse?

Puede tener qué ver entre métodos distintos de medición del PIB que hagan que el alemán sea más violento y el español, francés más suavizado?

__________________

Puede deberse a la cantidad de tippex utilizado. En Hispanistán su buen uso roza la artesanía, allí a lo mejor les salen más borrones.

En España vivimos en una gran mentira. Los medios presentan la realidad fabricada por los políticos y poderes fácticos.

__________________

Es el mismo dato que ya avanzaron hace días. No veo la noticia por ningún lado.

__________________

Hubo una modificación del IVA y ese trimestre el consumo se disparó. Creo que los siguientes trimestres el IVA era mas caro así que después el consumo se desplomó .

[Facepalm]

Se subia al 1 de Enero del 2006, no al 1 de Enero del 2008.

Los ejpertos achacan la buena coyuntura del T01/08 a un invierno casi ausente, con las ventajas en los campos de construcción, agricultura y minería de lignita consecuentes.

__________________

Todo el mundo utiliza la misma receta, excepto España, cuyos resultados nadie se explica (Angel Laborda, de Funcas, es el primero que reconoce que no son creíbles). Básicamente en España estamos viviendo un milagro en estos momentos, porque al contrario que lo que indican los libros de economía, nuestro país ha entrado en una fuerte recesión simultánea a un aumento récord histórico de productividad (por la caida del empleo muy superior al PIB). Según los libros de economía, cuando un país entra en crisis, la productividad se desploma en una fase inicial, para posteriormente recuperarse cuando se ajusta el empleo y al salir de la crisis es cuando empieza a mejorar. Esto es lo que está sucediendo en todos los demás países, incluyendo Alemania (50000 empleos netos creados en 12 meses y caída del PIB rozando el 7%). El caso español seguramente cree una nueva teoría económica (o más bien dentro de algunos trimestres se descubra algún fraude que nos explicarán como "infravaloración de la metodología aplicada al bla bla bla").

Resumiendo, es lógico el crash del PIB alemán porque ese país es una potencia exportadora y el mundo está en crisis. De momento, no ha llegado al empleo, pero llegará si no se corrige rápidamente la crisis internacional. En el caso de España, el origen del crash es interno al propio país mientras que el sector exterior "tira" de nuestra economía (el INE estima que el sector exterior ha sumado 2,3 puntos netos al PIB) ya que la crisis afuera es muy inferior a la de dentro. Que solo tengamos una modesta recesión se explica por el milagro contable que no nos han explicado; pero todos los indicadores tienen 2 dígitos de caída y se ha destruido un 7% de empleo (probablemente 10% o más en diciembre respecto al inicio de la crisis).

__________________

La crisis del automóvil en especial está pasando factura a Alemania. No hace mucho en un documental venían a decir que de 10 puestos de trabajo en Germania, 7 tenían que ver directa o indirectamente con la industria del automóvil. Ahí debe estar el principal escollo de la economía alemana en estos momentos. Van a tener que agudizar aquello de "ingeniería alemana a su alcance". Aunque a buen seguro que Alemania será de los primeros países en recuperarse, sino pueden inventarán la manera, que para eso son alemanes. Nosotros a seguir viéndolas venir (y ZP el primero).

__________________

'It Will Be Terrible': Economists in Davos Look with Concern to 2010 - SPIEGEL ONLINE - News - International

Many countries have started to see a rebound from last year's economic recession. But will it last? Economists at the World Economic Forum in Davos warn that paying down massive public debt will be "very, very painful." Deep spending cuts and significant tax hikes may be unavoidable.

For those now in their 30s, Kenneth Rogoff has bad news. "It will be terrible for you," the Harvard University economics professor told a young German at the World Economic Forum in Davos. "Germany's debt is exploding, the population is aging," he said. "And to be honest, I think your country is going to have average growth of just 1 percent in the coming years."

Rogoff went on to say that, should Germany wish to begin making inroads into its mountain of debt, there is no way around strict savings measures and significant tax increases. "It will be very, very painful," Rogoff said, adding that it will take at least a decade, and possibly many more, for Germany to pay down its debt.
He wasn't the only one in Davos with a dark vision of the future. Many countries could be stricken with the "Japan illness," Robert Shiller, a behavioral economist at Yale University, told SPIEGEL ONLINE. Following a financial crisis in the 1980s, Japan's economy remained in the doldrums for years as trust in the economy's ability to recover evaporated. Few were willing to take risks, sapping the Japanese economy of its life blood, said Shiller. "Such a situation could take hold in many regions of the world."

Such prognoses raise questions about the recent global economic recovery, modest though it may be. Is a second recession just around the corner, part two of what some warn could be a "double dip?" In the fourth quarter of 2009, the US economy grew by an impressive 5.7 percent -- but how durable are such gains?

'Historically Exceptional'

One thing is clear: 2010 presents steep challenges to the world economy. "There is an illusion of normalcy," Rogoff warns. But that illusion, he points out, comes largely as a result of the immense amount of money pumped into the economy by governments around the world. The result -- massive public debt across the globe -- is "historically exceptional," Rogoff says. The only comparable situation can be found during the Great Depression, he points out.

The question now is when to shift priorities. When can one begin focusing on paying down public debt without immediately stifling the fragile recovery? And, of course, will taxpayers play along?

"In the US, for example, any politician who tries to significantly raise taxes would be gone immediately," Rogoff is convinced. "We haven't had to tighten our belts for 50 years." Shiller says he can already sense a widespread feeling of anger among his compatriots -- a degree of anger, he said, that hasn't been felt among the America populace since the Vietnam War.

The situation isn't much different in many other countries in the industrialized world.

Conducive for the Rumor Mill

It is the situation in Greece, however, that shows just how dangerous the situation has become. The country is facing public debt that is 110 percent of its GDP -- a state of affairs which has proven conducive for the rumor mill. Last week, it was said that Greece was looking for money from China; others reported that Athens might extract itself from the common European currency, the euro; still others said that Germany and other EU countries were preparing a bailout package for Greece.

Denials from the Greek government did little to help. Greece saw its borrowing costs rise sharply amid a hike in interest rates. "Such stories frighten investors," says Shiller.

It might only be a matter of time until similar stories destroy investor confidence in other countries too. "Currently, the world is still keen to lend us money," said Rogoff referring to the US. "But that will not continue forever."

In Europe there are already warnings that a domino effect could spread from Greece. The finances of countries like Ireland, Spain and Portugal are in a similarly sorry state.

Stress Test for the Euro

The Greek crisis is also a dangerous stress test for the euro, as it presents the rest of the euro-zone members with a tricky dilemma. If they were to help out Greece financially, it would set a risky precedent -- other countries with shaky finances could in the future rely on being bailed out in an emergency. The financial markets would suddenly require risk premiums for bonds even from countries like Germany, because of the possibility that they might have to rescue their weak neighbors.

But if the euro-zone members were to leave Greece to its own devices and the state went bankrupt, the impact on the single currency would be disastrous. "The euro is getting more and more important as a reserve currency," says Shiller. "People believe that euro-denominated debt is safe." A state bankruptcy would profoundly shake that confidence, Shiller warns.

There are also those who are spreading cautious optimism and drawing attention to glimmers of hope. The head of the International Monetary Fund, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, said in Davos that growth was returning faster than expected. He pointed to the fact that Asia has already almost completely recovered from the crisis, with the Chinese economy growing by 8.7 percent last year.

Industry in Turmoil

It seems that 2010 will be the decisive year. As well as showing whether the recovery is sustainable, this will also be the year when the international community finally puts concrete proposals on the table regarding the implementation of the G-20's much-discussed goals.

Barack Obama's recent proposals to separate traditional commercial and investment banks and to stop banks from engaging in so-called proprietary trading with their own money, have added plenty of fuel to the debate. The international financial services industry is in turmoil as a result of the plan.

Few bankers have responded to the ideas as calmly as Martin Blessing, the head of Germany's Commerzbank, who told the Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung that "the basic idea is reasonable." "We have seen over the last two years that the current system has flaws and we can not just return to normalcy."

At the beginning of the summit, Deutsche Bank CEO Josef Ackermann had warned against Obama's plan. "In the end, we could all be losers if we no longer have efficient markets," he said.

'No Impact on Policy'

On Saturday in Davos, Ackermann and other financial representatives met behind closed doors with politicians such as French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde, her British counterpart Alistair Darling, EU Economic Affairs Commissioner Joaquin Almunia, ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet and IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn.

However, it appears that little agreement was reached. American Congressman Barney Frank, who heads the House Financial Services Committee, said after the meeting that the Obama administration was determined to push through "tough, sensible regulation." "It is very important to tell the banks and hedge funds what we will do," he added. Asked about the reaction from the financial world, Frank answered: "It doesn't concern me. That has no impact on policy."

However, Rogoff is skeptical about the degree to which Obama's proposals can be put into practice or if they can serve as an example for the rest of the world. "Obama has already made many good speeches," he says. The question is whether he will obtain the necessary majorities to make his ideas reality.

SOCIAL NETWORKS