Hace unas 3 semanas surgió el rumor de que durante ese fin de semana, China reduciría de nuevo las condiciones de reserva bancaria. Ha sido más tarde de lo que se comentaba; pero el rumor ha acabado siendo cierto (y por cierto aquí huele a miedo que tirar para atrás). China acts to crank up credit as lending, economy slow | Reuters China acts to crank up credit as lending, economy slow
By Jason Subler and Kevin Yao
SHANGHAI/BEIJING | Sun Feb 19, 2012 7:52am GMT
(Reuters) - China's central bank cut the amount of cash banks must hold in reserves on Saturday, boosting lending capacity by an estimated 350-400 billion yuan ($55.6-$63.5 billion) in a bid to crank up credit creation as the world's second-biggest economy faces a fifth successive quarter of slowing growth.
The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is on the course of gentle policy easing to cushion the world's fastest-growing major economy against stiff global headwinds as Europe's debt crisis grinds on, although it has been treading warily.
The cut, announced late evening, is set to boost the confidence of domestic stock investors, who have been eagerly awaiting clear signs of an easing of monetary policy.
"It's a very positive move for the stock market, and it will create a bullish stock market," Li Daxiao, the research head of Shenzhen-based Yingda Securities, said in an online note.
The PBOC cut big banks' reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 50 basis points to 20.5 percent, effective from next Friday, after repeatedly defying market expectations for such a move after it first cut the ratio last November.
Jin Qi, an assistant governor with PBOC, said in comments published on Sunday that China would continue to stick to a prudent monetary policy.
"Economic downward pressures coexist with price rise pressures," she said.
But if bank lending stays weak and capital inflows remain volatile, the central bank would have no choice but to cut RRR further, analysts said.
"It's not a big surprise. Although they (Chinese leaders) stress policy stability, an RRR cut is necessary. Trade and monetary data in January pointed to some downward pressure on the economy," said Hua Zhongwei, an economist at Huachuang Securities in Beijing.
"But policy easing will be gradual given the central bank sounded cautious about inflation in its fourth-quarter monetary policy report."
China's economy is likely to slow to an annual growth rate of 8.2 percent in the first quarter from 8.9 percent in the previous quarter, according to the latest Reuters poll.
Data for January came in below market expectations, with exports contracting 0.5 percent from a year earlier and money supply growth falling to 12.4 percent from the previous month's 13.6 percent, which analysts said argued for more easing.
"The growth implications of the below-normal lending in January are dire, should that lending pace be continued," said Paul Markowski, President of New York-based MES Advisers, a long-time investment adviser to China's monetary authorities, who calculates lending was on a 7.9 percent growth path.
"The implication of that is sub-7 percent GDP growth for the year -- a real recession," he said.
RAMIFICATIONS FOR THE WORLD
Economists broadly believe China's economy needs to grow at around 8 percent a year to absorb the annual influx of new entrants to the workforce and rural migrants leaving the land to find jobs in the country's vast factory sector.
Slower growth also has ramifications for the world economy -- already hampered by decaying demand from debt-ridden Europe and still under-spending U.S. consumers -- given that China now adds more each year to net global growth than any other nation.
China's leader-in-waiting, Xi Jinpeng, assured an audience of business executives in Los Angeles on Friday that China's growth would not falter it would continue to rebalance its economy to import more from other countries.
"There will be no so-called hard landing," said Xi, who is almost sure to succeed Hu Jintao as Chinese president in just over a year, on the final day of his tour of the United States.
The central bank announced its first cut in RRR in three years on November 30, 2011, taking the rate down by 50 bps.
Investors had expected another RRR cut ahead of the Chinese Lunar New Year in late January, but they were wrong-footed as the central bank opted for open market operations to provide short-term cash for banks.
A Reuters poll conducted in January showed economists expected the central bank to cut the reserve ratio by a total of 200 bps over the course of 2012 to 19 percent.
Few analysts believe the central bank will cut interest rates outright this year, with annual inflation staying stubbornly higher than the one-year deposit rate of 3.5 percent.
With annual consumer inflation having ticked back up to 4.5 percent in January from 4.1 percent in December, after averaging more than 5 percent through 2011 versus the government's 4 percent target, the PBOC is expected to remain cautious about aggressive monetary easing in the near term.
"We still see four more RRR cuts in the remainder of the year," said Shen Lan, an economist at Standard Chartered Bank in Shanghai. "The central bank may still stress policy stability. The next cut should be in Q2."
CONTINUING CAUTION
The PBOC revealed in its fourth-quarter monetary policy report that it had cut parameters of the dynamic differentiated RRR for selected banks late last year and early 2012 and said it will "make the full use" of the policy tool this year.
In addition, the PBOC has conducted a series of reverse repos to inject cash into the banking system.
The government is reluctant to give the green light to another bout of big bank lending given that it is still dealing with the after effects of the lending boom ordered as part of a 4 trillion yuan ($635 billion)stimulus package at the height of the 2008/09 global financial crisis.
Policymakers are determined to avoid another speculative bubble, such as the one in real estate that they have struggled for two years to adequately cool, gaining real traction only in the fourth quarter of 2011.
Average home prices fell by 0.2 percent in January from December, the fourth straight month of falls, according to a Reuters weighted average index based on official data released on Saturday.
Rather than take big steps to loosen monetary conditions, the PBOC has gradually relaxed some controls on credit at smaller regional institutions in recent months to support the slowing economy.
That has dovetailed with the central bank's tweaking policies meant to contain property speculation, by ordering banks to support first-time home buyers, as home prices have continued to fall.
Key to when the PBOC next cuts the RRR will be what happens with inflation.
"It's hard to predict the exact timing of a cut, but policy loosening will continue as inflation eases," said Wang Hu, an economist at Guotai Junan Securities in Shanghai.
(Additional reporting by Nick Edwards and Zhou Xin; Editing by Sanjeev Miglani) Por lo demás, Xi Jinping está de visita por Irlanda. Poco que comentar al respecto, mucha visita oficial, unas cuantas protestas (?De donde cojones han salido los Falun Gong en Irlanda???!!), y poco más. Haz click aquí para ver el "Spoiler" Vice-president's Irish trip dominates news in China - The Irish Times - Mon, Feb 20, 2012 Vice-president's Irish trip dominates news in China
The Irish Times - Monday, February 20, 2012
CLIFFORD COONAN
MEDIA: VICE-PRESIDENT Xi Jinping’s visit to Ireland dominated the news cycle in China yesterday.
Official news agency Xinhua led with Mr Xi urging both nations to deepen their mutually beneficial economic co-operation.
While stressing trade issues, the Chinese media also clearly relished the references to the “Emerald Isle” and the strong playwriting tradition here. And it also mentioned how many senior politicians were turning out to meet the Chinese visitors.
One of China’s most famous news broadcasters, Liu Xiuping, who presents the evening news show Xinwen Lianbo, delivered her piece to camera from Dublin Castle for the flagship show.
She is an especially high-profile journalist travelling with the 40-strong media pack accompanying the 150 delegates.
Many media outlets were still running with coverage from the US leg of Mr Xi’s visit, including news about his attending a Los Angeles’ Lakers basketball game. The visit was hailed as a “future oriented landmark”.
But the main focus of the coverage switched to Mr Xi’s arrival in Shannon by the evening.
Xinhua was running a special section dealing with investment in the Global Times newspaper, part of the People’s Daily, the main outlet of the ruling Communist Party. News of Mr Xi’s arrival led the China section.
“Ireland has a rich history and culture as well as amazing natural beauty. It is a success story of moving, in a short period of time, from an agro-pastoral economy to a knowledge economy,” the newspaper quoted Mr Xi as saying from the official statement. It also stressed how important it was that Ireland plays an active role in the EU and international affairs.
Some commentators have suggested the reason Ireland is featuring in such a high-profile trip is because it assumes the European Union presidency early next year, quite soon into Mr Xi’s leadership of the Communist Party and, in turn, China, and that it will be a strong link to the bloc.
Xinhua also ran a significant report on Chinese ambassador to Ireland Luo Linquan’s remarks on the bilateral relationship, which he described as a model of how countries should be getting along.
While the visit was high on the news agenda, the presentation of two pandas to France also featured in domestic coverage. Pandas, China’s national symbols, are a must for news in China. Visiting Chinese group most senior to visit State - The Irish Times - Mon, Feb 20, 2012 Visiting Chinese group most senior to visit State
The Irish Times - Monday, February 20, 2012
CLIFFORD COONAN
DELEGATION: THE VISITING delegation of 150 leaders and party bosses with vice-president Xi Jinping on his tour of Ireland, on a trip which also includes the United States and Turkey, is one of most senior delegations to travel here from the People’s Republic.
It includes senior ministers and top figures from Chinese industry, including private and largely state-owned companies.
Mr Xi, leader of the delegation, was born in Beijing in June 1953 and is married with one daughter. He graduated from Tsinghua University twice, first with a degree in chemical engineering and then with a second degree in law – specifically Marxist theory and ideological education.
He is expected to become president when the leadership succession begins in October of this year.
Foreign minister Yang Jiechi was born in Shanghai in May 1950. Mr Yang is a former ambassador to the US and became minister for foreign affairs in 2007.
Cui Tiankai is vice-minister of foreign affairs and became ambassador to Japan in 2007. Since his return to Beijing in 2009, Mr Cui has served as vice-minister for foreign affairs.
Cong Lin is chief executive of the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Leasing. Li Hai is president and chief executive of China Aviation Supplies Holding Company. Wu Jiping is chairman of Guanghua Satellite Infrared Technology Company.
Ding Lizhi is president of Universal Suizhou City Real Estate Development Company. Liao Qingjiang is president of the Xiamen Longcom Group. Wang Ping is president of Aoxin Technology Group from Hubei province. Gao Hucheng is China international trade representative and vice-minister of commerce. He has worked in the department of planning and finance of the ministry of foreign trade and economic co-operation where he was eventually promoted to assistant minister.
Zhang Xiaoqiang is vice-minister of the National Development and Reform Commission. Falun Gong demonstrators call on vice-president to end persecution - The Irish Times - Mon, Feb 20, 2012 Falun Gong demonstrators call on vice-president to end persecution
The Irish Times - Monday, February 20, 2012
TIM O'BRIEN
PROTEST: PRACTITIONERS OF Falun Gong gathered outside Dublin Castle as Chinese vice-president Xi Jinping was due to sign trade agreements with Taoiseach Enda Kenny.
About 50 adherents of the spiritual discipline yesterday called on Mr Xi to end persecution of Falun Gong in China. They said practitioners had been tortured, imprisoned and had their organs harvested since 1999.
In an address Dr Declan Lyons, consultant psychiatrist at St Patrick’s University Hospital, said Mr Xi had a unique opportunity to show leadership in his country and end the hatred of some officials which he said was bad for Falun Gong, bad for the Chinese government and bad for China.
Ming Zhao, a graduate of Trinity College, spoke of returning to China as a student in 1999 and having his passport confiscated. He then spent almost two years in prison where he said he was tortured routinely. After extensive pressure from the international community, he was released and is now an Irish citizen.
“Words are very powerful,” he said. “And my release was proof that a small country like Ireland can make a difference. It can influence Xi Jinping to deal with the officials who are now imprisoning each other and who could do great damage to China.”
Mr Xi’s visit to the Cliffs of Moher was briefly interrupted by a sole protester shouting: “Free Tibet!” and “Stop Killing Innocent Tibetans!”
Gardaí intercepted Sinéad Ní Ghairbhith as she walked towards Mr Xi holding a “Free Tibet” placard. China's heir apparent taken on grand tour - The Irish Times - Mon, Feb 20, 2012 China's heir apparent taken on grand tour
The Irish Times - Monday, February 20, 2012
DEAGLÁN DE BRÉADÚN, Political Correspondent
CHINESE VICE-PRESIDENT Xi Jinping leaves a special namesake behind as he leaves Ireland at lunchtime today for Turkey on the final stage in his world tour.
The chosen one is a Friesian heifer calf born the night before Mr Xi’s visit to the family farm of James and Maura Lynch at Sixmilebridge, Co Clare.
“Your excellency, we will be calling this calf after yourself,” Mr Lynch told the smiling Chinese leader yesterday.
The sun was rising over the nearby Cratloe Hills as James, along with his five-year-old son, also called James, took China’s second-in-command and his interpreter on a guided tour of the land.
They were accompanied by Minister for Agriculture Simon Coveney and a host of Chinese civil servants, television camera operators, photographers and representatives from the agrifood business.
Back at the house, Maura Lynch and her mother-in-law Anne were preparing tea, sandwiches, scones, apple tart and buns for the distinguished visitor as well as keeping an eye on little Olive Lynch, aged three, and her eight-month-old brother Ronan.
Far from being overawed by the occasion, James Lynch snr gave his intensely interested visitor a plainly worded, matter-of-fact account of his 87-hectare (215-acre) holding which supports a herd of 120 pedigree Friesian cows and a smaller number of beef cattle.
It is the height of the calving season and the newly-born bovines stare shyly back as the Chinese group passes along.
“This is our maternity ward, it is here all our baby calves are born,” said Mr Lynch proudly.
He brought us to the milking parlour. “In this unit I can milk approximately 100 cows in one hour on my own.”
What was the average yield per cow? Mr Xi wanted to know.
“We would get approximately 6,000 litres out of our cows per year,” said Mr Lynch.
How much of it was for immediate consumption and how much for further processing? “All our milk here goes for further processing.”
The Chinese leader was clearly interested in the co-operative dimension of Irish agriculture.
Mr Lynch supplies his milk to Dairygold Co-operative Society, whose chairman, Bertie O’Leary, was also at the Lynch farm yesterday.
Mr Xi said: “I think this form of production and processing is very good, that each farm produces the product and then it is processed on a collective basis; that works well.”
Dairygold, which exports €10 million worth of the key ingredients for milk-based baby food (infant formula) to China, has its roots in the co-operative movement which took hold in Ireland in the 19th century.
A Bord Bia-Irish Food Board background document issued for the vice-president’s visit indicates that the movement was inspired by Cork-born reformer William Thompson (1775-1833), who also laid some of the ideological foundations for communism.
Chairman Mao would have been pleased to hear that.
Mr Lynch, who visited China last November, belongs to a new generation of Irish farmers focused on improving the genetic quality of their breeding stock, increasing the productivity of the land and ensuring the landscape retains its biodiversity.
Every Monday he walks the farm and measures the latest grass growth.
He feeds the data into his computer so he can predict farm productivity for the following two to three weeks.
It’s a long way from “Matt the Thrasher” and the traditional ways of The Riordans of television fame, although the Lynch family has been working this land for eight generations, or almost 400 years. |