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de Nationwide.

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Parece que el FMI tampoco coincide con Kierevelos:

IMF forecasts long housing slump

Britain's homeowners must brace themselves for a prolonged slump in the housing market, according to the International Monetary Fund, which delivered a grim assessment of the UK economy this weekend, in stark contrast to Alistair Darling's prognosis.

While the chancellor insisted in last week's budget that he expected to see green shoots before the year is out, the Washington-based lender believes the housing crash is far from over, with property still over-valued.

House prices have already fallen by around 20% in the UK; but despite the rising optimism of Britain's estate agents, the IMF said the housing downturn in the UK, and equally damaging crashes in Ireland and Spain, probably have "a considerable distance left to run".

Its experts pointed out that the boom in the UK was bigger than the bubble in America. House prices in the US have been falling since 2006, but the pace of decline is still increasing.

With the catastrophic loss of wealth from falling house prices weighing on people's confidence, the IMF expects recession in the UK to continue well into 2010. Britain is also dogged by higher inflation than in any other major economy, at 1.5% this year.

The IMF's analysis, published to coincide with the gathering of the world's finance ministers in Washington this weekend, will make uncomfortable reading for the chancellor.

Darling stuck by his budget forecasts of an upturn later in 2009, despite news of a worse than expected 1.9% contraction in GDP in the first quarter, telling reporters in Washington, "my forecast is based on what will happen in the future".

With the cost of the banking bailout, and the collapse of tax revenues from the financial sector, the Treasury is now expecting unprecedented public deficits over the next decade - but the IMF still expects things to get even worse, with debt peaking at more than 80% of GDP.

Gordon Brown has demanded a more powerful "surveillance" role for the IMF in spotting looming crises in the world economy; but when he was chancellor, he repeatedly ignored its concerns.

Dominique Strauss-Kahn, the IMF's managing director, said last week that part of the organisation's job was "naming and shaming" governments - and admitted that it can be hard to convince policymakers to follow its advice.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2...sing-slump-imf

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From Times OnlineApril 27, 2009

UK mortgage approvals fall 25.3 per cent

Elizabeth Judge
Hopes of a revival in Britain's battered housing market were undermined today by data showing the number of mortgages approved for house purchase fell by 25.3 per cent in the 12 months to March.

Figures from the British Bankers Association (BBA) showed 26,097 mortgages were approved in March, down from 34,920 a year ago.

The number approved was down 7 per cent on the previous month. Until March the figures had shown modest rises for three months.

David Dooks, director of statistics at the BBA, said the figures showed it would be "unrealistic to expect the mortgage market to recover in a steady and consistent way in the current economic environment".

Figures from the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) last week revealed that 24,300 mortgages were secured in February, up from 23,400 a month earlier.

A recent Hometrack survey revealed that house prices fell at a reduced rate of 0.3 per cent month-on-month in April while the number of house sales agreed that month rose by nearly 15 per cent.

Howard Archer, chief UK and European economist of IHS Global Insight, said that despite the March relapse revealed by today's BBA figures, the overall evidence was that housing market activity had "very likely passed its worst point, helped by the substantial fall in house prices from their 2007 peak levels and markedly reduced mortgage rates."

The BBA figures, he said, suggested that "the most likely scenario is the pick-up ...will be both very gradual and prone to relapses given still very poor economic fundamentals and relatively tight credit conditions."

Factors including soaring unemployment, muted wage growth and a suspicion that house prices still have some way to fall, would continue to weigh down the housing market for some time to come, he said.

Property groups fear that the chances of a pick-up in market activity could be damaged by plans by Lord Turner of Ecchinswell, chairman of the Financial Services Authority, to outlaw super-sized mortgages.

Lord Turner suggested in his review into the banking crisis in March that the size of mortgages offered by the banks could be capped. A paper to be published in September will further explore the idea which is aimed at drawing a line under the reckless lending to homebuyers, typified by Northern Rock's offer, at the height of the boom, of 125 per cent mortgages.

UK mortgage approvals fall 25.3 per cent - Times Online

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Nationwide almost doubles mortgage rate amid setback in mortgage approvals

Nationwide is almost doubling the interest rate for borrowers who come to the end of their mortgage deal as experts warn that other lenders will follow amid a decline in mortgage approvals.

By Myra Butterworth, Personal Finance Correspondent
Last Updated: 2:22PM BST 27 Apr 2009

Nationwide is introducing the new rate of 3.99 per cent for anyone taking out a new mortgage from this Thursday, almost double the existing rate of 2.5 per cent
Britain's biggest building society is introducing the new rate of 3.99 per cent for anyone taking out a new mortgage from this Thursday. It is almost double the existing rate of 2.5 per cent.

It means anyone who takes out a mortgage after this date will see their mortgage jump once their initial deal comes to an end. Existing borrowers, however, will migrate to the lower rate.

Existing borrowers also have a guarantee that the rate will not increase more than 2 per cent above the Bank Rate which is currently just 0.5 per cent. This guarantee will disappear for new borrowers.

Nationwide attributed the changes to the economic downturn, saying low interest rates made it difficult to balance the needs of its savers and borrowers.

But experts attacked the move, saying new customers were paying the price for those enjoying lower mortgage interest rates. And they warned that other lenders may follow by increasing their standard variable rates.

Richard Morea, of mortgage brokers London & Country, said: "It will create two tiers of borrowers, with new customers set to lose out substantially."

The announcement will cost a borrower with an interest only mortgage of £200,000 an extra £2,980 per year, once their initial deal comes to an end, he suggested.

The average SVR is currently 4.61 per cent, according to personal finance website Moneyfacts.co.uk Cheltenham & Gloucester, and Intelligent Finance are among those lenders offering a low SVR of 2.5 per cent.

Melanie Bien, of mortgage broker Savills Private Finance, said: “The current rate has proved to be so competitive for borrowers and therefore costly for Nationwide, that it is reviewing its strategy."

It comes as the number of number of mortgages approved for those buying a home fell by 7 per cent in March, according to the British Bankers' Association.

It said overall lending is down 25 per cent compared to a year earlier.

David Dooks, BBA statistics director, said: "The figures show it would be unrealistic to expect the mortgage market to recover in a steady and consistent way in the current economic environment."

A total of 26,097 mortgages were approved for house purchase during the month, following a 16 per cent jump in loans to 28,024 in February.

The number of loans approved for people remortgaging also continued to decline, dropping to a nine-year low of 26,831, while total mortgage advances fell to £8.9 billion in March, the lowest level since April 2001.

Andrew Montlake, of mortgage brokers Coreco, said: "Lenders generally are still being very cautious and this caution is reflected in the latest BBA mortgage lending figures."

Nationwide almost doubles mortgage rate amid setback in mortgage approvals - Telegraph

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Aprobación créditos hipotecarios baja con fuerza en G. Bretaña | Reuters

Aprobación créditos hipotecarios baja con fuerza en G. Bretaña
lunes 27 de abril de 2009 13:41 GYT

LONDRES (Reuters) - El número de hipotecas aprobadas para compra de casas en Gran Bretaña cayó en un cuarto en marzo a tasa interanual, dijo la Asociación de Banqueros Británicos el lunes, arrojando dudas sobre un repunte sostenido en las ventas de viviendas.

El número de hipotecas aprobadas cayó a 26.097 el mes pasado desde 28.024 en febrero. La baja fue de un 25,3 por ciento respecto de marzo del año pasado.

Las aprobaciones habían tocado un mínimo histórico en noviembre, pero habían tenido una recuperación sostenida a comienzos de año.

"Las cifras bancarias muestran también que sería poco realista esperar que el mercado hipotecario se recuperase en un modo directo y consistente en el actual ambiente económico", dijo David Dooks, director de estadísticas de la Asociación.

Un sondeo separado de la empresa de información de propiedades Hometrack mostró que los precios de las casas en Inglaterra y Gales cayeron un 10,1 por ciento en abril comparados con igual mes del año pasado.

Hometrack dijo que la desaceleración en la tasa mensual de declive a un 0,3 por ciento desde un 0,6 por ciento en marzo reflejaba un mayor optimismo de parte de los agentes estatales.

Pero las cifras mostraron que hubo una caída aun más abrupta en el número de personas que repactaron sus hipotecas, con un descenso interanual de un 58 por ciento, ya que las personas volvieron a tasas variables convencionales en vez de cambiarse a productos a tasas fijas.

Los precios de las casas han perdido un quinto de su valor en poco más de un año por causa de la crisis. Aunque la disponibilidad de hipotecas ha subido ligeramente en respuesta a las iniciativas públicas, el mayor desempleo significa que la demanda probablemente siga débil.

"La recaída en las cifras sobre hipotecas para marzo destaca el hecho de que el escenario más probable es que el repunte en la actividad del mercado de bienes raíces será tanto gradual como propensa a recaídas", dijo Howard Archer, economista jefe de IHS Global Insight.

(Reporte de Christina Fincher y David Milliken)

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Precios vivienda Reino Unido cae el 0,4% en abril
056 Los precios de las viviendas en el Reino Unido descendieron el 0,4% en abril pasado frente al mes anterior, informó hoy la entidad de crédito hipotecario Nationwide. Con esta caída, el precio promedio de una vivienda -que en el Reino Unido no se diferencia si es de nueva construcción o no- se sitúa en 151.861 libras (171.602 euros), agregó la entidad, uno de los mayores proveedores de hipotecas del país.

Invertia.com - mercados,finanzas,economía, fondos y cotizaciones

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