while the rest of the world has its attention on Iran, N. Korea, crumbling economic system (and for the sheeple Jon & Kate and Michael Jackson) another storm is brewing. EU monitors are pulling out of the region on June 30th, Russia has taken over border security for S. Otessia and Abkhazia, sporadic armed clashed are becoming more frequent, Russia has recognized the independence of Georgia breakaway provinces S. Otessia and Abkhazia and we are on the eve of some of the largest Russian military exercises in the N. Caucauses involving the 58th Army Group which spearheaded last summer conflict


U.S.-Russia Moscow Summit Presents Last Opportunity to Avoid War in Georgia

Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 6 Issue: 122
June 25, 2009 01:31 PM Age: 19 hrs
Category: Eurasia Daily Monitor, Home Page, Foreign Policy, Military/Security, Russia, Georgia, Featured
By: Pavel Felgenhauer

There are other outstanding contentious issues. Kremlin-connected Russian political commentators have been stating, "an Obama visit to Moscow can only be successful if he publicly announces a 20-25 year moratorium on Georgia and Ukraine joining NATO" (RIA Novosti, June 20). In exchange for the recognition of Georgia and Ukraine being within Russia's sphere of control, Moscow could offer Obama help in the transit of supplies to troops in Afghanistan. There have been reports that the U.S. might be allowed to continue to use the Manas airbase in Kyrgyzstan (Kommersant, June 16). Manas has been used by coalition forces to support operations in Afghanistan since 2001, but in February the Kyrgyz government announced its closure after receiving pledges of over $2 billion in aid from Moscow. This week the U.S. and the Kyrgyz authorities announced a deal that the Manas base will stay for at least another year under the name of a "transit center." The Russian foreign ministry is reported to have expressed its outrage over the reversal of the Kyrgyz decision, but some sources in Moscow still believe the Manas reversal could be part of a bigger covert Obama-Medvedev deal (Kommersant, June 24).

While the Obama visit is being prepared, Moscow is continuing military and propaganda preparations for a possible full-scale military invasion to change the present pro-Western regime of President Mikheil Saakashvili in Georgia. Senior Russian generals and diplomats have been accusing Georgia of preparing "a new aggression" (EDM, June 19). Last week a Georgian Lieutenant Alik Bzhania, 35, who served in the Georgian coast guard and apparently defected to Russian-controlled Abkhazia, was promoted by the Gazprom-owned liberal Ekho Moskvy radio. He was promptly given asylum and held a high profile press conference in Moscow. Bzhania announced, "Saakashvili is preparing an aggression and I do not want to fight Russia" (Interfax, June 19). A Moscow journalist that interviewed Bzhania, speaking on condition of anonymity, told Jamestown that the orders to publicize the defector came directly from Putin's office. If Russia is planning full-scale military action in Georgia, it clearly needs an excuse that it is in self-defense - countering an alleged "Georgian aggression."

On June 29, Russian troops begin massive military exercises on Georgia's borders as well as in occupied Abkhazia and South Ossetia - Kavkaz 2009 (EDM, June 19). The exercises are planned to end on July 6, when Obama lands in Moscow. The troops will be deployed and fully ready to go into action for at least several weeks after July 6, which apparently makes July the most dangerous month in the troubled South Caucasus. Obama's visit to Moscow may be the last slim hope to avoid a war: if the U.S. president understands the threat and decides to put Georgia at the center of his negotiations instead of START -which is deadlocked anyway by the BMD linkage. It may be still possible to pull off a diplomatic miracle by pressing or persuading Putin to stand back.

Russia's Defense Modernization Without a Doctrine - The Jamestown Foundation[tt_news]=35174&tx_ttnews[backPid]=407&no_cache=1