Vamos lo que nos espera es lo que viene siendo un invierno kondratieff
Winter (or Depression)
All the fun must end.
The last Autumn bubble will eventually pop. The reason that bubble pops is not the increase of interest rates or any other Fed mistake. Feds do it all right. The bubble usually pops on its own weight, because the increasing number of Ponzi units need a constant increase of debt to stay solvent. Eventually creditors go to strike and deny the new credit. At this time the collateral used for the debt is falling in price, because the music stops and there is no enough chairs. This is called the Minski moment, when most Ponzi units are denied new credit all at once.
The collapsing credit is essentially equivalent to the collapse of monetary base, because the debt obligations are essentially money, or at least very similar to money. The collapse of money supply is called deflation. It leads to the decrease of all kind of prices - goods, real estate, labor, stock market. There is no enough money and too much goods competing for money. It’s a time of oversupply. Too many factories, too many factory workers. Too many farmers, too many oranges. Too many banks and too many bankers. Too many homes and too many defaulted homeowners.
The solution to the problem is massive elimination of all excesses. There are massive defaults, bankruptcies and foreclosures. There are ghost towns with empty homes. People are laid-off because they are not needed.
How to fix that? Very smart Ben Bernanke suggested that he can drop money from helicopters. He is very smart and he had sent a very clear message to those who listen. The only solution to the problem he knows is to use helicopters.
The only solution. So, if indeed he does not plan to drop money from the sky then there is no other way to fix the problem. I don’t know the way either, and nobody knows, because there is no way. The Winter of K-wave has to happen the same way as the winter happens in the nature, every single year.
The main idea of Kondratieff was that the market economy self-heals itself each time it goes into trouble. USA was the strongest country in the world in 1929, and it still was the strongest country in 1940’s, after the Great Depression. So the Great Depression does not break the economy, it heals it. The idea is that all the bad debt must be eliminated, which probably means that pretty much all debt must be eliminated. The nation of spenders is converted into the nation of savers, which can export more than it imports, which produces more than it consumes, which saves more than it spends.
When the Spring comes, all the leafs are green and flowers are ready to flourish
Kondratieff wave The Theroxylandr in Flame
Creo que esta imagen muestra en todo su explendor el ciclo